SURGE IN BOAT PEOPLE BECOMES POLITICAL ISSUE

UNCLAS CANBERRA 001238

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SMIG PREF AS
SUBJECT: SURGE IN BOAT PEOPLE BECOMES POLITICAL ISSUE


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Opposition is blaming a surge in the
number of illegal boat people on the Rudd Government's
relaxation of the former Howard Government's border
protection policies. Since the policy toward illegal
refugees was changed in August, six people-smuggling boats
traveling from Indonesia have been caught in Australian
waters, compared with none in the ten months prior to the
changes. On December 7, an Indonesian boat carrying 44
refugees was caught in Australian waters. The same day, the
Government announced it would provide additional resources to
monitor Australia's northern maritime approaches. The
Government denies the increased arrivals correlate to the
relaxation in visa policy, instead claiming it is the season
for boat crossings. The Howard Government's tough stance
toward illegal boat people, exemplified by the stopping of
the container ship Tampa, was very popular with the
Australian public and helped it win the 2001 election. END
SUMMARY


2. (U) Six boats attempting to carry illegal refugees from
Indonesia to Australia have been intercepted since August 9
when the Rudd Government abolished a policy enacted by the
Howard Government that made it more difficult for arriving
boat people to resettle in Australia. So far this month, a
boat carrying 37 Afghans was intercepted off Ashmore Reef and
taken to Christmas Island and on December 7, a boat carrying
47 potential asylum-seekers was spotted in Australian waters.
The total number of boat people detained so far this year
stands at 127, as opposed to 150 that arrived on five boats
last year and the 60 that arrived on six boats in 2006.


3. (U) Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has charged that
there is a "real problem" with border security, noting that
the six boats that had arrived since August. Last week, PM
Rudd maintained that there was no surge in smuggling and the
numbers spotted recently merely reflected the fact that this
was the season for small boats to attempt to cross from
Indonesia, but after the latest incident, the Government
announced that an additional navy vessel and surveillance
aircraft would be added to patrol the waters between
Australia and Indonesia.


4. (U) On August 9, the Rudd Government abolished Temporary
Protection Visas (TPVs). Introduced by the Howard Government
in 1999, unauthorized asylum seekers were given TPVs instead
of permanent visas. At the end of three years, TPY
recipients could either apply for another TPY or return to
their country of origin. This was intended to discourage
smuggling and the introduction of TPYs, along with the
additional measures taken in 2001, correlated in a
significant drop in the number of unauthorized arrivals. In
August, the Rudd Government announced a new policy that
grants illegal refugees the same benefits as legal refugees.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: John Howard's tough stance against illegal
refugees trying to cross in small boats from Indonesia helped
him win the 2001 election and the Government will suffer if
the public believes that it is "soft" on illegal immigrants.
Rudd knows this is an issue on which he must look tough but
the Australian Navy is planning on sending thousands of
sailors on extended Christmas leave and the Opposition is
Qsailors on extended Christmas leave and the Opposition is
claiming the Government may not have the assets required to
curb what may be a surge of illegal immigrants attempting the
crossing from Indonesia. It will be interesting to see how
far Turnbull - a social liberal - pushes this issue.

MCCALLUM