NEW NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION/DISARMAMENT GROUP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CANBERRA 001075

SIPDIS

STATE FOR ISN, VCI, T AND EAP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2018
TAGS: PARM AORC PREL KNNP AS
SUBJECT: NEW NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION/DISARMAMENT GROUP
SETS AMBITIOUS WORK PLAN

REF: A. CANBERRA 595

B. CANBERRA 1026

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Crowley. Reasons: 1.4 (b
)(d)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Commissioners at the inaugural meeting of the
International Commission on Nuclear Non-Proliferation and
Disarmament (ICNND) in Sydney October 19-21 agreed on an
ambitious work program involving seven meetings in different
capitals over the course of the next 18 months, and
production of 20 papers on nonproliferation and disarmament
issues. The meetings and papers will feed into the
Commission's major objective: an ICNND report with
recommendations intended to influence the May 2010 Treaty on
the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Review
Conference. The group broadly discussed the NPT's three
central objectives: nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament and
peaceful use of nuclear energy, but did not attempt to reach
consensus on specific positions in the initial meeting,
according to the head of the Secretariat. The group also
endorsed co-chair Gareth Evans' plan to extend ICNND's
mandate beyond the 2010 NPT Review Conference. In remarks to
the media on October 21, Evans cited conversations with
advisors to both U.S. presidential candidates in voicing
optimism a new U.S. administration would move forward on the
nonproliferation/disarmament agenda, including perhaps
greater receptivity to ratifying the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty (CTBT),which would put pressure on China to follow
suit, and to re-engage with Russia on the Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty (START). End summary.

SUCCESSFUL INAUGURAL MEETING
--------------

2. (C) Ian Biggs, Head of the ICNND (pronounced: IK-NID)
Secretariat, briefed poloff on the first meeting of the
Commission since Prime Minister Rudd unveiled the concept in
June 2008. Overall, the meetings had been successful,
according to Briggs, with participation by 11 of the 15
commissioners who had been named less than one month earlier.
In addition to co-chairs Gareth Evans (Australia) and Yoriko
Kawaguchi (Japan),participants included Ali Alatas
(Indonesia),Alexei Arbatov (Russia),Gro Harlem Brundtland
(Norway),Francois Heisbourg (France),Jehangir Karamat
(Pakistan),Klaus Naumann (Germany),William Perry (United
States),Wang Yingfan (China),and Ernesto Zedillo (Mexico).
Those not attending due to prior engagements or illness were
Turki Al-Faisal (Saudi Arabia),Frene Noshir Ginwala (South
Africa),Brajesh Mishra (India),and Shirley Williams (United
Kingdom). Several members of the advisory board also took
part.

ATMOSPHERICS
--------------

3. (C) All the commissioners seemed focused and ready to
work to further their common aims, according to Biggs. The
group agreed on the broad objectives of furthering nuclear
nonproliferation and the ultimate aim of eliminating nuclear
weapons completely, but had a realistic understanding of
current realities and did not attempt to reach consensus on
main questions at this initial meeting. As might be expected
Qmain questions at this initial meeting. As might be expected
of such senior statesmen, Biggs observed, there was no
singling out of the United States for criticism or any effort
to make it a special focus of ICNND efforts. The group
accepted the co-chairs' proposal to extend the mandate of the
Commission for a two-year period, which would carry it beyond
the NPT RevCon, in order to set out a road map for future
action, including drawing in non-NPT states into the treaty.

INDEPENDENT -- BUT WITH GOA AND JAPANESE SUPPORT
-------------- ---

4. (SBU) Prime Minister Rudd hosted a dinner for the group on
October 19, at which he pledged GOA support for the ICNND,
including a financial contribution of AUS $8.3 million (USD
5.6 million),while acknowledging the possibility that the
independent group's conclusions and recommendations might

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diverge or even conflict with GOA policy. The GOA
contribution also involves hosting the Secretariat, which is
housed in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT).
Japan is providing logistic support, Biggs added.

AMBITIOUS WORK PLAN
--------------

5. (SBU) During working sessions on October 20-21, the
commissioners agreed on a calendar of meetings over the next
12 months, including in Washington, D.C., during the February
13-17, 2009, timeframe; in Moscow in June; in Hiroshima,
Japan in October; as well as a series of regional meetings in
Santiago, New Delhi, Beijing and Cairo, held in conjunction
with research centers, to include advisory board members,
academics and NGOs. (ICNND's associated research centers
include: Carnegie Endowment, Washington, D.C.; Delhi Policy
Group, New Delhi; Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique,
Paris; Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, San
Jose, Costa Rica; Japan Institute of International Affairs,
Tokyo; King's College, London; and the Lowy Institute for
International Policy, Sydney.)


6. (SBU) The Commissioners requested the Advisory Board's
assistance in producing 20 study papers on various
nonproliferation and disarmament issues that would inform the
Commission's thinking in writing a final ICNND report with
recommendations for the 2010 NPT Review Conference.
According to Biggs, representative topics included: the
Nuclear Suppliers Group post-U.S.-India civil nuclear
agreement; the Proliferation Security Initiative; the Nuclear
Weapons Convention (NWC); renewing the Strategic Arms
Reduction Treaty (START); role of long-range conventional
weapons; Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty;
implications of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR);
Article X (withdrawal provisions) of the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT); and the IAEA
Additional Protocol.

U.S. ENGAGEMENT
--------------

7. (C) Biggs noted U.S. Commissioner and former Defense
Secretary William Perry had pushed for the second meeting to
be held in Washington, D.C., in mid-February, stressing it
would be crucial to engage the new U.S. administration as
early as possible and to ensure that the new government
accorded a high priority to nonproliferation and disarmament.
Perry acknowledged that many U.S. officials would not yet be
confirmed, or perhaps not even named, but urged the
Commission co-chairs to meet the new President and Secretary
of State at a minimum, Biggs said.


8. (U) During a joint press conference with co-chair
Kawaguchi, Evans said his conversations with staff of Senator
McCain and Senator Obama has engendered confidence that there
would be positive changes under a new U.S. administration in
regards to nonproliferation and disarmament. He offered his
view than an Obama administration would support early
ratification of the CTBT, while Senator McCain kept an open
mind on the subject, despite past opposition to ratification.
Evans said discussions in China had left him with the strong
Q Evans said discussions in China had left him with the strong
impression that, were the U.S. to ratify the CTBT, China
would find itself under "irresistible" pressure to ratify it,
too. He told the media he had discerned a willingness on the
part of the Russian foreign minister and other senior Russian
officials to re-engage with the United States on the START
Treaty before its expiration in 2009 as well as on associated
arms control measures, adding he had no doubt that a new U.S.
administration would be "keen" to recommence talks on START.


9. (C) Comment: The ICNND has set itself a punishing
schedule that may well threaten the quality of its output.
Biggs, who had had been shifted abruptly from his former
position as Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and
Counter-Proliferation to head the Secretariat soon after
Rudd's announcement, seemed in a state of shock at the volume
of work endorsed by the Commission over the next few months,
noting his first order of business would be to request at
least two more staff members to supplement the two DFAT

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officer he had been allocated, along with an intern.
Moreover, there is a question about the quality of the papers
that will shape the eventual report and recommendations for
the NPT revcon. As ICNND cannot obtain reports from
classified sources, some papers may be incomplete at best.
Finally, co-chair Evans seems to be bent on having a strong
Track II component in regional meetings that, if not managed
properly, may act to weaken the Commission's credibility and
distort its ultimate recommendations.

CLUNE