TURNBULL OFF TO A GOOD START AS OPPOSITION LEADER

UNCLAS CANBERRA 001028

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV AS
SUBJECT: TURNBULL OFF TO A GOOD START AS OPPOSITION LEADER

REF: A) CANBERRA 956 B) CANBERRA 1020


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the first Newspoll that measured Malcolm
Turnbull's performance as Opposition Leader, voters gave him
a satisfaction rating of 50 percent, 10 points higher than
former Leader Brendan Nelson's top of 40 percent and nine
points better than Kevin Rudd when he first became Opposition
Leader. However, those satisfied with Prime Minister Kevin
Rudd also grew, from 50 percent in September (ref A) to 56 in
October. Rudd leads Turnbull on the question of better prime
minister, 54-26 percent, and the Australian Labor Party (ALP)
would beat the Liberal-National Coalition by 10 points if an
election were held tomorrow. Political commentators
attributed the good polling results for both men to the
cooperative spirit they have shown in responding to the
financial crisis in the United States and Europe. Turnbull,
the experienced investment banker, will be hoping to continue
to capitalize on voter economic anxiety. Rudd, on the other
hand, has seized the initiative on the economy, providing
insurance for bank deposits and other confidence-building
measures, and announcing October 13 a AUD $10.4 billion
stimulus package to protect economic growth. END SUMMARY


2. (U) On October 14, "the Australian" newspaper published
its latest Newspoll, which surveyed voters on October 10-12,
a weekend of turmoil and sharp declines on the world's
financial markets. This was also Malcolm Turnbull's first
poll as Opposition Leader. The Australian reported that the
economic turmoil and Rudd's and Turnbull's bipartisan
response had lifted the approval ratings for both men.
Public satisfaction with Rudd improved from 50 in September's
Newspoll to 56 today, and its dissatisfaction dropped from 37
percent to 32. Turnbull recorded a higher initial approval
rating than the last five Opposition Leaders, 50 percent,
which was ten points higher than his predecessor Brendan
Nelson's highest rating and nine points higher than Kevin
Rudd when he became Leader of the ALP and Opposition Leader
in December 2006.


3. (U) While Turnbull has started strongly as Opposition
Leader, Rudd leads on the question of preferred prime
minister 54-26 percent. This is better than the 62-16 gulf
that separated Rudd and Nelson but still a big gap for
Turnbull to make up. According to the latest Newspoll, if an
election were held tomorrow, the ALP would beat the Coalition
by ten points: 55-45. This is only a one percent improvement
over the ALP's theoretical margin of victory when Nelson was
still Opposition Leader.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: While the public appears to favor Malcolm
Turnbull over Brendan Nelson, it clearly likes Kevin Rudd
better than either Liberal Party leader. Turnbull has been
stressing his and his party's strong record of economic
management, and he has made suggestions (government purchase
of good-quality Australian mortgage-backed securities and the
insurance of deposits) that have been adopted by the
Government. PM Rudd, however, has done a good job seizing
the initiative on the economy. On Sunday, after a week of
bad economic news ending in "Black Friday" on the Australian
stock market (ref B),Rudd announced all savings deposits
would be insured by the federal government. He also said the
Government would guarantee loans by Australian banks from
international capital markets and he doubled the size of the
mortgage-backed security buyback program. On Monday, as the
Australian stock market rallied, Turnbull continued to back
QAustralian stock market rallied, Turnbull continued to back
the Government's moves and Rudd worked to calm the financial
markets by announcing a AUD $10.5 billion stimulus package
(septel).

MCCALLUM