THE FIELDS OF FRIENDLY STRIFE: PM CALLS FOR MSZP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000895

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV HU
SUBJECT: THE FIELDS OF FRIENDLY STRIFE: PM CALLS FOR MSZP
PARTY CONGRESS AS SHOWDOWN WITH SZDSZ CONTINUES

REF: BUDAPEST 876 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (SBU) In a move characterized as desperate by his
opponents and clever by his supporters, Prime Minister
Gyurcsany has called for an extraordinary session of the
Socialist Party Congress on September 27.


2. (C) With his tax plan in limbo (reftel) and calls for his
resignation once more in the air, Gyurcsany has challenged
the Socialist leadership to support him or submit to
"pressure from FIDESZ or pressure from the SzDSz." He has
reserved particularly sharp words for the SzDSz, accusing
them of putting welfare recipients at risk and of proposing a
government of experts in lieu of a serious governing agenda.
He has also equated the SzDSz's break with the MSzP with
desertion in "the struggle against extremism and
intolerance," playing an old card against a new target at a
time of rising concern over a series of violent incidents
between Roma and non-Roma in rural communities.

MSzP: TIMING IS EVERYTHING


3. (C) Noting the carefully-staged endorsement of
Gyurcsany's tax plan by a host of local MSzP officials
throughout the week, analysts including Political Capital's
Krisztian Szabados believe the PM has timed his move well.
MSzP MP Attila Mesterhazy tells us that the tax plan has
polled well with the public ) though it has not played well
with the business community (reftel),and advises that the
party had given "no serious consideration" to Gyurcsany's
removal "for months." Even so, Mesterhazy confides that the
party leadership is frustrated with Gyurcsany's opaque
leadership style, commenting that the PM "plans but doesn't
govern." Moreover, Mesterhazy admits that many in the party
are worried by the PM's questionable decision to "make an
issue of the budget" without "any political or constitutional
reason" to do so.


4. (C) Szabados and others suggest that Gyurcsany is moving
now in order to shore up party support in preparation for a
long fall. Although the party congress will officially
consider options including early elections or a change of
leadership, few doubt that the PM sees only one right answer:
a full commitment to win public and parliamentary support for
his tax and budget legislation.

SzDSz: DISTINCTION WITHOUT DETAILS


5. (C) The SzDSz's vision is less clear. In a briefing for
the diplomatic corps on September 8, party president Fodor
offered few specifics regarding the prospective path to a
government of experts, a solution even some party leaders
regard with disquiet as "contrary to democratic principles."
Acknowledging the risks of his current approach, Fodor
nonetheless commented that pressing Gyurcsany to stand down
is "the least bad option" to address Hungary's "difficult and
dangerous times."


6. (C) As he also conceded, this approach could help the
SzDSz reestablish an independent identity after years of
being perceived as a "Socialist satellite." With polls
showing 20 percent of Hungarians identifying themselves as
liberals but only 1 percent supporting the SzDSz, Fodor may
calculate ) as FIDESZ leaders have suggested - that being
seen as a change agent is the only way for his party to
survive.

FIDESZ: A RING-SIDE SEAT


7. (C) FIDESZ continues to bide its time: party insider
Karoly Dan tells us that they will be "quiet and patient" as
the MSzP and SzDSz continue to spar. He believes that
Gyurcsany's call for a party congress is merely a maneuver to
buy time, and dismisses the government's strategy as "hoping
for a miracle." The result, he concludes, is that people
will be "sick of Parliament before it even reconvenes."

THE REELING IS MUTUAL


8. (C) Comment: As he did by calling for a quick confidence
vote in the fall of 2006, Gyurcsany is likely calculating
that the party congress can shore up a bad situation (
before it gets worse. Although the party has fallen out of
love with the Prime Minister, he believes they will still
fall in line in the face of external pressure. Only five
votes shy of securing a majority in Parliament for his tax
plan and budget proposal, Gyurcsany may also hope that others
in the SzDSz will blink even if Fodor does not. Like the

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MSzP, the SzDSz is also improvising as it attempts to
maintain a united front, and as events develop a momentum of
their own, we sense little detailed planning to match Fodor's
depth of feeling. Although self-interest should dictate an
accommodation between the two former partners, both sides are
doubling down as FIDESZ waits ( and Hungary's problems
mount. End Comment.

Foley