Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BUDAPEST485
2008-05-15 09:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

DAY ONE: MINORITY GOVERNMENT WINS APPROVAL FOR

Tags:  PGOV KDEM HU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO4955
PP RUEHBW RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #0485 1360954
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 150954Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2918
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000485 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: DAY ONE: MINORITY GOVERNMENT WINS APPROVAL FOR
GOVERNMENT RESTRUCTURING

REF: A) BUDAPEST 442 B) BUDAPEST 401

Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

THE FIRST DAY OF THE REST OF HUNGARY'S LIFE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000485

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: DAY ONE: MINORITY GOVERNMENT WINS APPROVAL FOR
GOVERNMENT RESTRUCTURING

REF: A) BUDAPEST 442 B) BUDAPEST 401

Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

THE FIRST DAY OF THE REST OF HUNGARY'S LIFE?


1. (SBU) Marshaling a surprising majority, the Gyurcsany
government secured Parliamentary approval for its government
restructuring proposal (ref a) May 13.


2. (SBU) Confronting what many observers here cast as a
crucial test of his ability to govern in the absence of a
parliamentary majority, Prime Minister Gyurcsany lobbied the
SzDSz caucus personally, securing ten votes from his former
coalition partner to win by the comfortable margin of 200 )

142. (Note: Gyurcsany also cancelled his scheduled visit to
Israel to remain in Budapest for debate on this issue and on
health care, citing his "first responsibility to govern."
End Note.) Although both MSzP and SzDSz officials had
assured us previously that the issue had been agreed in
advance (ref b),SzDSz spokesmen have emphasized that their
support was based on the PM's commitment that the
restructuring will not increase the cost of public
administration.


3. (C) Commentary has focused less on the accord between the
MSzP and the SzDSz than on the poor party discipline
exhibited by the opposition. Twenty-five FIDESZ MPs were
absent during the session (which came just after a three-day
weekend),and parliamentary faction leader Tibor Navracsics
has discussed fining members who missed the vote. FIDESZ MP
Mihalj Balla expressed his own chagrin to us in private,
mutely shaking his head at his colleagues' absence.

TALK IS CHEAP; SUPPORT ISN'T


4. (C) The vote paves the way for the formal implementation
of Gyurcsany's proposal to revise the division of substantive
responsibilities among the ministries. Central to his plan
is a visible emphasis on development (ref a),although
contacts across the spectrum have questioned the real impact
of the reorganization. Political Scientist Zoltan Kiszelly,
for example, characterizes the changes as the PM's effort to
keep control of the MSzP, cautioning that none of the new
members of the cabinet will be stalwarts on reform.
"Gyurcsany needs votes both in Parliament and within the
party," he concludes, "and support doesn't come cheaply."


5. (C) MSzP MP and former Gyurcsany Chief of Staff Zoltan
Gal encourages us to look beyond the cabinet appointments to
the new faces at the secondary level of the bureaucracy. He
believes the restructuring has been carefully orchestrated to
marginalize elements unsympathetic to Gyurcsany and to
replace them with local officials who will support his
agenda. As Kiszelly observes, "it is easier for the Prime
Minister to change his cabinet than it is for him to change
his mind."

BULLETS DODGED AND OPPORTUNITIES MISSED


6. (C) Comment: Although the practical impact of the
restructuring may be less than meets the eye, the political
stakes were high for all parties. For the MSzP, stumbling
out of the starting gate would have badly damaged the Prime
Minister's evident intent to demonstrate his ability to
govern without a parliamentary majority. Though the SzDSz
will likely remain in what FIDESZ MP Zoltan Balogh called
"semi-opposition" until its own party elections on June 7,
many of its members did not want to oppose the government on
the very first vote after the dissolution of the coalition.
Although they will hold the government to its commitment
regarding the cost of the restructuring, SzDSz MP Matyas
Eorsi believes most of his colleagues will give the
government the benefit of the doubt on most operational
issues. As Balla tacitly admitted, FIDESZ may regret its
inability to line up the votes it needed to close the gap.
With so many of its MPs missing the vote, the opposition
missed an opportunity to "prove" its public assertion that
minority government cannot work. While that question will
remain open, the minority government has survived day one.
End Comment.
Foley