Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BUDAPEST37
2008-01-10 16:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Budapest
Cable title:  

COLD FEET ON KOSOVO?: MFA FLOATS THE LEAD BALLOON

Tags:  PREL KO HU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8952
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #0037 0101645
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101645Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2380
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000037 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR DAS DI CARLO AND EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO
NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2013
TAGS: PREL KO HU
SUBJECT: COLD FEET ON KOSOVO?: MFA FLOATS THE LEAD BALLOON
OF A "TAIWAN SOLUTION"


Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000037

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR DAS DI CARLO AND EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO
NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2013
TAGS: PREL KO HU
SUBJECT: COLD FEET ON KOSOVO?: MFA FLOATS THE LEAD BALLOON
OF A "TAIWAN SOLUTION"


Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) There are disturbing signs that the GoH is
considering a partial recognition approach toward Kosovo. In
a meeting with visiting former Ambassador Richard Holbrooke
February 7, Foreign Minister Goncz solicited his opinion
regarding the potential "recognition of the state but not of
its sovereignty." She added that she has asked her staff to
explore this option, later likening it to the "Taiwan
solution."


2. (C) Holbrooke strongly discouraged any such course of
action in both his private meetings and his public
statements, referring to the dangers of "diluted sovereignty"
in one interview.


3. (C) The immediate origins of this line of thinking are
unclear. To our knowledge, the Taiwan parallel was not
raised during the recent visit of Serbian PM Kostunica. The
idea was unwelcome news to our British colleagues here, and
they have passed word to the FCO to be prepared to discuss it
during State Secretary Szent-Ivanyi's visit to London next
week. Opposition sources up to and including FIDESZ Party
President Orban have made clear their support for
independence, reportedly going so far as to offer the
government a political ceasefire on Kosovo given their common
support for the Ahtisaari Plan.


4. (C) Our surmise is that the "Taiwan solution" may have
originated with the Foreign Minister herself. Even more
sensitive than most Hungarians to the plight of moderates in
Serbia and often prone to compromise rather than
confrontation, Goncz may be looking for a way to avoid the
difficult decision of recognition in the absence of complete
EU consensus. The danger, of course, is that their
initiative will attract support from other EU capitals at the
eleventh hour and undermine IC solidarity.


5. (C) We believe a prompt official approach from Washington
will help prevent the GoH from treading too far down this
path. We very much appreciate DAS Di Carlo's willingness to
speak with GoH officials via DVC January 14, and have
confirmed the attendance of MFA State Secretary Gyorgy
Szent-Ivanyi and EU Office Director Zsolt Pataki. (Note:
Szent-Ivanyi has recently taken over responsibility as the
MFA's Political Director following his most recent tour as
Ambassador to The Netherlands. He is known as a competent
professional and reportedly enjoys the respect of opposition
MPs. He replaces Ivan Udvardi, whose departure has been
attributed to pro-Serb sympathies. End Note.)


6. (C) We are also pressing for the Prime Minister's Office
to send a representative even though Foreign and Security
Policy Advisor Ambassador Karoly Banai will be out of town.
The PMO's participation is important, as they will be able to
bring the MFA to heel. They should also be inclined to do
so; the PM has been very solid on Kosovo since meeting with
A/S Fried last summer, and insiders believe he has identified
Kosovo as an issue where he can help restore his
Euro-Atlantic credentials. The PMO should see that breaking
ranks now ) and potentially offering others a legalistic
pretext to do likewise ) would be the wrong idea at the
worst time.

LEVINE