MUSICAL CHAIRS; DISCORDANT VOICES: PARLIAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000155

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE; PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: MUSICAL CHAIRS; DISCORDANT VOICES: PARLIAMENT
RETURNS AS CABINET RESHUFFLE LOOMS


Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI: REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (SBU) Summary: Although it was only opening day,
Hungarian MPs ) and protestors - were in mid-season form as
the spring session began February 11. The governing
coalition reaffirmed its support for PM Gyurcsany's health
care reforms amidst heated rhetoric, but talk of a cabinet
"pre-shuffle" is dominating conversation on the margins. End
Summary.

NEWS ... BUT NOT NEW


2. (SBU) There was very little new in the opening session of
Parliament. Despite a rare voice vote requested by the
opposition, the MSzP bloc voted for a slightly amended
version of PM Gyurcsany's health care reforms with only one
defection. The government also held serve in voting down an
opposition proposal to approve another public referendum on
health care.


3. (SBU) The tone of debate was also familiar. Responding
to criticism from MDF Party President Ibolya David, PM
Gyurcsany reportedly questioned how she "could try to act as
if she is above politics when she is the leader of a party."
FIDESZ Faction Leader Tibor Navracsics resumed his running
critique of the government, asking why the PM "can't give
interviews in the foreign press without having to ask for
retractions." He privately described the Prime Minister as
"like a child who has disassembled a toy and now can't put it
back together."


4. (U) Several hundred protestors also returned to
demonstrate in front of Parliament, with police deploying
pepper spray and tear gas to disburse the crowd in the late
evening.

CABINET "PRESHUFFLE" TAKES SHAPE


5. (SBU) Talk in the halls of Parliament, meanwhile, has
turned increasingly to what could amount to a slow but
significant cabinet shake-up. The latest move is the
announcement that Gyurcsany ally Tibor Draskovics will move
from his current position as Minister without Portfolio in
the Prime Minister's Office to replace Minister of Justice
and Law Enforcement Albert Takacs.


6. (C) A law professor and former human rights omsbudsman,
Takacs was a compromise candidate for the position but
remained the odd man out throughout his brief tenure. He
clashed publicly with President Solyom in defending the
performance of the police during the demonstrations of 2007,
but never appeared to develop a close relationship with the
Prime Minister or a comfort level with the Ministry
rank-and-file. He confided to us months ago that "even my
wife is tired of hearing me complain about my job."


7. (C) Draskovics, by contrast, is a long-time Gyurcsany
associate. (Navracsics asked archly "what does he know about
Gyurcsany that keeps winning him jobs?") A former Minister
of Finance, he was recently rumored to be headed to Price
Waterhouse-Coopers and will likely bring considerable clout
to the Ministry. This will strengthen their hand on
anti-corruption efforts, but the move may also leave the PM
weaker in his own office, particularly as press coverage
characterizes Draskovics as losing out in his conflict with
Cabinet Minister ) and Gyurcsany rival ) Peter Kiss. Kiss
was reportedly behind rumors of Gyurcsany's resignation last
week, and according to government spokespersons the PM will
focus increasingly on political strategy while leaving
administrative implementation to Kiss. (Note: It is unclear
how this division will work in practice, and press reports
make reference to Kiss being "capable of serving as Prime
Minister in an emergency." End Note.)


8. (C) These changes follow the recent resignation of
long-time Chief of Staff Zoltan Gal ( and may not end with
Takacs' departure. Many believe the "pre-shuffle" is a
preview of broader changes following the March 9 referendum.
Tibor Navracsics believes that reformist Development Minister
Gordon Bajnai will move on after the referendum, Health
Minister Agnes Horvath ) consistently ranked as the least
popular politician in Hungary - is reportedly living on
borrowed time, and speculation in the media has both Minister
of Education Istvan Hiller and Minister of Social Affairs and
Labor Monika Lamperth slated for departure. Although the
PM's new Chief of Staff, Adam Ficsor, downplayed the
probability of further personnel changes, political scientist
Zoltan Kiszelly advises us to "watch how few friends the PM
has left in the Prime Ministry."


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A MORE USER-FRIENDLY APPROACH FROM THE PM?


9. (C) Both sides will have shown their hands by next week.
FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban's February 12 "State of the
Nation" address continued to condemn "six years of Socialist
misrule," and the PM will respond with remarks to Parliament
on February 18. Having the Prime Minister effectively
respond to the opposition is curious, and opposition leaders
predict that the Prime Minister will appeal for "new
politics" in 2008. Gyurcsany has been previewing a new
agenda in closed meetings with the MSzP leadership ) albeit
to mixed reviews. Ficsor indicates that the PM is likely to
propose modest initiatives in light of Hungary's
"conservative budgetary projections," but predicted that his
message on "tax relief," his intention to invest the savings
from the convergence plan, and his more consultative approach
would be "very welcome to the international business
community." Although he expressed confidence in both
Gyurcsany's popularity at the grass roots level as well as
the soundness of "progressive initiatives" in place of
"old-fashioned liberalism," Ficsor minimized expectations for
the PM's upcoming address. The goal is still fundamental
economic and social reform, he concluded, but the Prime
Minister's speech would "set a broad direction" for the
upcoming Parliamentary session rather than "regain his
credibility all at once."


10. (C) Comment: Gyurcsany's reported new approach
notwithstanding, we see little chance of peace breaking out.
Navracsics believes that the MSzP is making a strategic
mistake in not moving to replace the PM now, commenting to
the Ambassador February 8 that there would still be "plenty
of time" to change horses before the 2010 elections. If the
present personnel changes continue, however, Gyurcsany may
find himself cut from the herd by rivals within the MSzP.
End Comment.

FOLEY