BANKS SAY NO TO STATE ASSISTANCE...FOR NOW

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001108

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE, EB/OMA, INR/EC
TREASURY FOR ERIC MEYER, JEFF BAKER, LARRY NORTON; USEU FOR
HAARSAGER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2013
TAGS: ECON EFIN PREL HU
SUBJECT: BANKS SAY NO TO STATE ASSISTANCE...FOR NOW

REF: VIENNA 1665

Classified By: ACTING P/E COUNSELOR JON MARTINSON; REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D)


1. (U) The IMF 12.5 billion euro stand-by loan to Hungary
includes provisions to help increase the equity and liquidity
of banks in Hungary. The "banking sector package" includes a
HUF 300 billion (approx. USD 1.5 billion) Capital Base
Enhancement Fund to increase banks' capital adequacy ratio to
14 percent, and a HUF 300 billion Guarantee Fund to guarantee
the rollover of loans and wholesale debt securities with an
initial maturity of more than 2 months and up to 5 years. In
addition to other requirements, banks receiving assistance
must give the state non-voting, dividend preference shares.



2. (U) The package has been made available to "private
Hungarian banks of systemic importance," and is intended in
part to ensure a level playing field within the EU, by
offering support to banks in Hungary whose parents had not
already received support from other EU member states. In
addition, to be eligible, banks need to have warranty capital
of at least HUF 200 billion (approx. USD 1 billion). The
Finance Ministry announced that three banks in Hungary met
the criteria - OTP Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo's CIB Bank, and
Bayerische Landesbank's MKB Bank.

WE DON'T NEED THE HELP...AT LEAST NOT UNDER THE CURRENT TERMS


3. (SBU) The three qualifying banks have indicated, at least
preliminarily, that they do not intend to take advantage of
government assistance, maintaining publicly that they do not
need it. For example, OTP has stated it currently maintains
a liquidity buffer of EUR 1.5 billion, which means it does
not have to raise money for over a year. OTP additionally
points out that it can sell some of the 17 million shares it
holds, which at current market prices would raise HUF 50
billion.


4. (C) Some analysts believe, however, that banks' tepid
reaction to the program comes not from a lack of need, but
from a lack of appetite for the conditions attached. OTP is
advocating that the plan be modified to more closely resemble
the Austrian model (reftel) as opposed to following the
U.S.-UK model, which they see as overly restrictive and
"assumes the bank has been mismanaged". OTP Chairman Sandor
Csanyi mentioned to the Ambassador privately two primary
concerns with the current plan - that shares received by the
government could, under certain economic conditions, be
transformed into voting shares, thus creating a risk that the
bank could be nationalized in the future; and that the
executive compensation provisions, which would allow the
government to set compensation limits, could cause OTP to
lose many qualified managers who might be unwilling to accept
major reductions in salary.

A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD


5. (SBU) Another reason OTP and other banks may be reluctant
to accept government assistance is out of concern that it
might send a signal to investors that the banks are in
trouble. OTP faced a similar situation in mid-October, when
the government offered state guarantees on OTP Bank's
interbank lending. Although the government was quick to
mention that the Hungarian banking sector is "stable and
well-capitalized" and OTP immediately refused the
government's offer, maintaining that "OTP's capital status
and liquidity condition are extremely good", the government
action added fuel to speculative rumors that OTP was in
trouble, which caused its share price to drop significantly.

THROWING A PARTY BUT NOBODY'S COMING


6. (SBU) After having advocated for assistance for banks
during negotiations with the IMF, the government now finds
itself in a situation in which its relief package has been
rejected by all qualifying banks. In addition, on November
17 the Parliament Budget Committee voted down the bank
package. Although this will not prevent the bill from being
debated or voted on, its terms must be modified to win
sufficient support for passage. SzDSz caucus leader Janos
Koka commented that the bill in its current form "brings back
socialism by enforced nationalization."


7. (U) The Ministry of Finance is expected to propose
modifications to the bill in the coming weeks. MOF officials
hinted that the requirements may be modified to allow
additional banks to qualify for assistance, but noted that no
decisions on modifications have yet been made.

WALKING A FINE LINE


8. (C) Comment. It is likely that OTP and other banks in
Hungary would be interested in receiving state capital
injections provided there is limited conditionality. Given
their reluctance to admit any need for capital, however, they
would likely market it as helping to "level the playing
field" with competitor banks whose parents received aid from
their home countries. Without the assistance package or a
return to normalcy in financial markets, however, a number of
banks will likely reduce their growth and their lending
levels - for OTP, this could include subsidiaries in
Bulgaria, the Ukraine, and elsewhere. In order to help
maintain the availability of credit in Hungary and the
region, the government is expected to propose modifications
to the package that might make it more palatable to banks.
As Central Bank Governor Andras Simor points out, however,
"there must be conditions".

FOLEY