Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BUCHAREST687
2008-08-29 08:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bucharest
Cable title:  

BASESCU TELLS SEN. LUGAR ROMANIA FACING HARD

Tags:  PREL PGOV ENRG ECON MD GG RS RO 
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FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8655
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 000687 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/FO, EUR/CE AND H
H PLEASE PASS TO SFRC FOR SEN. LUGAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG ECON MD GG RS RO
SUBJECT: BASESCU TELLS SEN. LUGAR ROMANIA FACING HARD
CHOICES IN WAKE OF GEORGIA CONFLICT

Classified By: DCM JERI GUTHRIE-CORN FOR 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 000687

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/FO, EUR/CE AND H
H PLEASE PASS TO SFRC FOR SEN. LUGAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG ECON MD GG RS RO
SUBJECT: BASESCU TELLS SEN. LUGAR ROMANIA FACING HARD
CHOICES IN WAKE OF GEORGIA CONFLICT

Classified By: DCM JERI GUTHRIE-CORN FOR 1.4 (B) AND (D).

SUMMARY


1. (C) President Traian Basescu told Senator Richard Lugar on
August 27 that he fears that Russian recognition of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, coming in the wake of U.S./European
recognition of Kosovo, has begun a process which threatens to
unravel the existing international legal architecture and
create widespread instability in Europe. Characterizing
Russia's incursion into Georgia as part of a bold new effort
to reassert control over Russia's "near abroad," including
Eastern Europe, Basescu argued that the West must counter
Russia with a reinvigorated effort to resolve frozen
conflicts and restore respect for international law through
the U.N. Security Council (UNSC). Basescu fretted about
Romanian security vulnerabilities in the Black Sea and the
implications of events in Georgia for Moldova/Transnistria,
saying any Russian provocation against Moldova's "4.5 million
Romanian citizens" would put Romania in a serious quandary.
Basescu argued that NATO and EU action in confronting Russia
must go beyond "statements" and that a more robust policy
toward the Black Sea region should include repositioning of
NATO military assets. End Summary.

BASESCU: FAILURE TO RESOLVE FROZEN CONFLICTS A "HUGE MISTAKE"


2. (C) President Basescu and his top security advisers met on
August 27 with visiting Senator Richard G. Lugar, accompanied
by the Ambassador, DCM, and Senate Foreign Relations
Committee (SFRC) staff. Opening with some observations from
his recent Caucasus trip, including to Georgia, Basescu said
he believes recent events illustrated two main points: 1)
failure of the international community to deal with frozen
conflicts has been a "huge mistake," as these situations can
explode unexpectedly; and 2) the existing European order --
founded upon the territorial integrity of multiethnic states
and respect for international law -- is gravely threatened.

Basescu characterized Russian recognition of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia as a direct response to the West's recognition
of an independent Kosovo, and complained that both cases, in
Romania's view, involved "violations" of UNSC resolutions and
undermining of the existing international legal regime.


3. (C) Russia will continue systematically to exploit such
situations in order to re-exert its influence over former
Soviet states and even Eastern Europe, Basescu said, unless
NATO and the EU, along with the rest of the international
community, mount a vigorous and coordinated response. This
must include restoring UNSC legitimacy, creating a single
framework under UNSC auspices to deal with all frozen
conflicts, and insisting that Security Council decisions be
respected. Basescu also expressed concern that the "flawed"
French-mediated ceasefire agreement not form the basis of a
new UNSC resolution without substantial modifications.
Senator Lugar agreed that a renewed push in the Security
Council to resolve frozen conflicts was the appropriate
mechanism and said he would encourage the U.S. Administration
to follow this approach.


4. (C) Basescu did not reserve all his criticism for Russia.
Reflecting on his discussions with Georgian President
Saakashvili, Basescu said he was "shocked" at the
"adventurers" in the Georgian Government who had rushed so
willingly into "provoking" the Russians; Saakashvili had
demonstrated a "huge lack of maturity." This strategic
blunder was followed by a succession of military errors,
particularly in not blocking the Roki Tunnel through which
pre-positioned Russian forces were able to move quickly into
South Ossetia. Basescu speculated whether Georgia's poor
military performance could in fact have been a tactic
intended to draw NATO into coming to Georgia's defense. In
any case, years of Western investment in Georgia's economy
are "lost" and must be painstakingly rebuilt, Basescu said.
Sen. Lugar agreed that the Russians had been concentrating
troops in the area for some time and had been looking for an
opportunity to paint Georgia as the aggressor; the U.S. had
actively cautioned Georgia to show restraint.

GEORGIA A HARBINGER OF MOLDOVA/TRANSNISTRIA?


5. (C) Basescu was openly fearful about the implications of
the Georgia conflict for Moldova/Transnistria. He asserted
that while Romania respects Moldova's independence, its
citizens are "4.5 million Romanians" who are "part of our

BUCHAREST 00000687 002 OF 003


nation." Basescu recalled that during the 1991-92 conflict
in Moldova, Romania had sent extensive supplies and munitions
to the Moldovan side, but he wondered aloud what Romania's
appropriate response should be now as a NATO member in
response to any Russian provocation there. Asked by Senator
Lugar whether NATO membership would restrain Romania from
acting, Basescu replied that Romania would have to consider
the views of the Alliance so as not to pull others into a
conflict, but would be under intense pressure to respond --
"we would face very tough choices." Basescu asked, almost
rhetorically, whether NATO and the EU would stand with
Romania in such a situation, saying it could come down to a
stark decision for the Romanians between the "EU approach of
generating statements" or "actually helping" the Moldovans.


6. (C) Drawing a further parallel with events in South
Ossetia, Basescu observed that substantial elements of the
Russian 14th Army are present in Transnistria as
"peacekeepers." Removal of these forces must be a top
priority, he said, since Russia had used the excuse of
defending its peacekeepers as one pretext for intervention in
Georgia. Asked whether Russia has been receptive to Romanian
diplomatic initiatives on Transnistria, Basescu replied that
he has discussed the conflict with Putin "at least five
times" but that Russia refuses to respect the 1999 Istanbul
agreement. Basescu ridiculed the reasons Russia has given
for not withdrawing its forces from Transnistria. The
Russians in this and all other frozen conflict zones must be
replaced with international troops under a U.N. mandate,
because "we create the opportunity for this kind of
intervention by accepting the presence of Russian
peacekeepers there," he said. Basescu noted that he would be
meeting with the Russian Ambassador that same afternoon and
would tell him Romania will support any European Council
decision to offer deployment of EU troops as replacements for
Russian forces. He said he would also challenge the
Ambassador over whether Russia continues to support the
Security Council and intends to abide by UNSC resolutions in
the future.

NABUCCO: "WE MUST CONCLUDE AN INTER-GOVERNMENTAL AGREEMENT"


7. (C) Turning to the implications for energy policy of the
Georgia conflict, Basescu observed that Russia may not have
to resort to military means to force solutions more to its
liking. Control of energy resources is a new tool of
influence even more effective than the Red Army, he said.
While agreeing that Russia wants to destroy the "European
project of Nabucco," Basescu asserted that the project
remains viable but that its biggest challenge is really
European lack of resolve. Georgia has changed nothing with
regard to Nabucco, except perhaps in the minds of other
European states, similar to the way some in Europe have used
the difficulty of negotiating with Turkey as an excuse for
inaction on Nabucco. However, Basescu said he is personally
engaging Turkey's leaders and believes a diplomatic
resolution is within reach. In the wake of the Georgian
conflict, and with Turkey firmly at the table, now is the
time to push forcefully to conclude a Nabucco
Inter-Governmental Agreement (IGA). Romania does not believe
in Russia's South Stream, and Caspian leaders have told him
they desperately want transit alternatives for their energy
resources to Europe which do not rely on Russia, Basescu
observed. Sen. Lugar responded that he believes the Turks
are now firmly behind Nabucco, and that rapid conclusion of
an IGA would be a welcome and unexpected diplomatic coup in
the face of Russian intimidation.

THE BLACK SEA: WHERE ARE NATO AND THE EU?


8. (C) Basescu argued that Russia's resurgence creates a new
strategic imperative for NATO and the EU in the Black Sea.
He expressed near paranoia over the dispute between Russia
and Ukraine regarding the Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol and
the threat the Fleet may pose to Romania's coasts. Observing
that Turkey shares Russia's position that NATO naval forces
should stay out of the Black Sea, a policy Turkey enforces
through control of the Bosporus passage, Basescu insisted
that NATO allies must consult with Turkey to change this. He
also urged that NATO "equilibrate" its presence in the Black
Sea region by redistributing forces now committed in
"distant" areas. Responding to Sen. Lugar's expression of
appreciation for Romanian military support in Afghanistan,
Basescu reaffirmed that Romania will uphold its NATO
obligations. However, in the face of potential Russian

BUCHAREST 00000687 003 OF 003


aggression, Romania is relying on NATO for its defense but
"NATO is all in Afghanistan now," he said. Events in
Georgia, and their implications for Transnistria, have
changed the nature of the game in Romania's view. "They are
at least as important to Romanians as Iran," Basescu quipped
(a not-so-subtle dig at U.S. policy priorities). Romania is
a growing economy and has more resources to devote to
defense, but cannot shoulder the burden of Black Sea security
alone; NATO and the EU must assign greater importance to the
area, Basescu concluded.

COMMENT


9. (C) Basescu came to the meeting well-prepared to deliver
a direct message. Romania firmly believes that recognition
of Kosovo set a dangerous precedent which the Russians are
now moving forcefully to exploit, and that the basic premise
of territorial integrity for multiethnic nation states -- a
key requirement for Romania's NATO accession -- is now in
serious jeopardy. Basescu also forcefully advocated for a
reaffirmation by the international community of respect for
international law and the primacy of the UNSC in order to
blunt Russian expansionism and defuse other potential
flashpoints. Most striking, however, was the centrality in
Basescu's thinking of the Moldova/Transnistria conflict and
Black Sea security generally in the wake of events in
Georgia. Basescu clearly worries that the Russians may
trigger a similar provocation in Moldova which would
practically require a Romanian military response, with broad
implications for the EU and NATO. As a consequence,
especially with national elections approaching, holding the
Romanians to their extensive commitments in Iraq,
Afghanistan, and elsewhere will be a political challenge if a
more pressing threat in their minds looms close to home. End
Comment.
TAUBMAN