U/S FRIED URGES EU TO SUPPORT KOSOVO, GEORGIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000700

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETTC KNNP EFIN BO GG RS IR EUN
SUBJECT: U/S FRIED URGES EU TO SUPPORT KOSOVO, GEORGIA
DESPITE RUSSIAN PRESSURE

BRUSSELS 00000700 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Laurence Wohlers for reason
s 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: Acting U/S Fried urged PSC Ambassadors May 7
to resist Russian pressure and continue integrating Kosovo
and Georgia into the Euro-Atlantic sphere. He criticized
UNMIK's slow transition of authority to EULEX in Kosovo, and
emphasized that discussions between the Serbian government
and UN Under Secretary General for Peacekeeping Operations
Guehenno should not lead to renegotiation of the Ahtisaari
plan. On Iran, he encouraged the EU to follow through on its
twin track approach by implementing tougher sanctions in
support of diplomacy. Fried described Russia as a
"schizophrenic" partner on Iran, alternately helping and
hampering Western efforts. On Belarus, Fried welcomed the
opening of a new EU delegation in Minsk as well as the EU
statement of solidarity with the United States in the face of
Belarusian diplomatic coercion. Following the forced
expulsions of U.S. diplomats and the continued imprisonment
of Belarusian political opposition leaders, the Secretary
will soon review policy options, which could include closing
our Embassy and implementing additional sanctions against the
Lukashenko regime. EU officials and Ambassadors representing
member states probed U.S. intentions regarding upcoming
Serbian elections, enhancing diplomatic engagement in
Georgia, countering Russian influence in Iran, and speeding
the pace of the UNMIK-to-EULEX transition in Kosovo. End
Summary.


2. (C) In a coffee with more than 30 EU officials and
Ambassadors from the Council's Political and Security
Committee, Acting Undersecretary of State for Political
Affairs Daniel Fried said EU and U.S. vigilance is essential
to prevent Serbia and Russia from undermining Kosovo's
independence. Expressing concern about discussions between
U/SYG for Peacekeeping Operations Guehenno and the Serbs, he
emphasized that the Ahtisaari plan absolutely cannot be
renegotiated. Fried noted that NATO will have to shoulder an
unfair burden if the UNMIK-to-EULEX transition has not
happened by the time Kosovo's constitution takes effect June

15. He said last year's troika negotiating process was
important "to show that it's not possible to produce results
with the Serbs," but that the U.S. won't ask Kosovo to wait
patiently through a similar process again. The U.S., which
will contribute to EULEX, strongly supports the mission and
believes that it should be autonomous from the UN, he said.


3. (C) In response to a question from Belgian PSC Ambassador
Dirk Wouters, Fried said he does not believe that the scope
of residual UNMIK powers will depend on the outcome of May 11
Serbian elections. While he would prefer a DS victory, Fried
said a victory by the radicals would not represent as
significant a change in Serbian policy as many fear. Noting
that Western embassies had been attacked and soldiers shot
under Kostunica's government, he questioned what more the
radicals could do. Fried lauded the EU's recent decision to
sign an SAA with Serbia, saying the EU would otherwise have
been blamed in case of a radical victory. Italian PSC
Ambassador Andrea Meloni took issue with Fried's assessment,
saying a victory by the radicals could call into question
Serbia's relationship with Europe. Fried said he is not
indifferent about the election outcome, just realistic, and
believes that Serbia's future lies with Europe regardless.


4. (C) Turning to Georgia, Fried noted that, as in the
Balkans, the country's future lies with the EU and NATO
rather than Russia. Comparing Georgia's situation to that of
the Baltics in the early 1990s, he said it is a clear
struggle between Russia and the West. Fried expressed
confidence in Georgia's desire to join the Euro-Atlantic
institutions and said it must not allow Russia to provoke it
militarily, economically or politically. The U.S., he said,
has no doubt that Russia shot down a Georgian surveillance
drone April 20 in an attempt to elicit a military response
from Georgia. While Russia may not intend to annex Abkhazia,
he said it was doing everything it could to bring Georga
under its control. "Russia needs to know tat there is a
price to be paid for bullying one of its neighbors," he said,
noting that new Russian President Medvedev may be more
progressive than Putin. Fried said that while Russia is an
important global player in the short and medium terms because
of its energy assets, it will fade in the long term due to
demographic trends and structural economic weaknesses caused
by overreliance on oil.


BRUSSELS 00000700 002.2 OF 002



5. (C) Saying that the United Nations Friends of Georgia
process is not working properly (due to Russian
intransigence),Fried suggested that a new diplomatic
initiative should be considered to change the current
diplomatic stalemate. In response to a question about the
details of such an initiative from Emma Udwin, a senior
advisor to External Relations Commissioner Ferraro-Waldner,
Fried said it could include fleshing out the outline of a
proposal from President Saakashvili, and outreach to
Abkhazian leaders to explore possibilities. EUR DAS Bryza
intended to pursue a dialogue on that basis during his visit
to Georgia later this week. Karel Kovanda, Deputy DG at
RELEX, said EU political directors would be en route to
Tblisi May 7 for a meeting on Georgia. Fried said Georgia
should focus on strengthening its democratic institutions and
keeping its sights set on the West. "Georgia wrongly
believes that Europe is going to appease Russia at Georgia's
expense," he said.


6. (C) On Belarus, Fried noted that all but four U.S.
diplomats in Minsk had been PNG'd by the government. The
Secretary will soon review U.S. policy options, including
closing the Embassy, which "we won't keep open at any price."
He said the door is open to dialogue if Belarus releases
political prisoners. Fried welcomed the EU Delegation's new
presence in Minsk, saying EU influence there - especially by
officials with pre-1989 experience in the region - is
important.


7. (C) On Iran, Fried said the P5 1 ministers had reached
agreement on a "refreshed set of initiatives" that they hope
to offer to Iran before UNSCR 1803 expires in early June.
The revised offer will be based on a 2006 package that was
highlighted in a ministerial statement issued when 1803 was
adopted, he said. The U.S. follows the EU-initiated two
track policy, and the Secretary continues to hold out the
offer of talks with Iran on any subject once it suspends, in
a verifiable manner, uranium enrichment and reprocessing.
Fried stressed that the EU needed to implement tougher
sanctions against Iran to show that its defiance of the UNSC
came at a high cost. Tougher sanctions would also help
intensify burgeoning debate among Iranian policymakers on the
country's nuclear options.


8. (U) Acting U/S Fried's staff has cleared this report.

MURRAY
.