Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BRUSSELS445
2008-03-25 17:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
USEU Brussels
Cable title:  

EU RESPONDS TO DEMARCHE ON BURMA REFERENDUM,

Tags:  PGOV PHUM EFIN EUN BM 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000445 

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FOR EAP/MLS COPE, IO/UNP WICKBERG, EUR/ERA DEAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EFIN EUN BM
SUBJECT: EU RESPONDS TO DEMARCHE ON BURMA REFERENDUM,
OUTLINES STATE OF PLAY ON COMMON POSITION

REF: SECSTATE 26677

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Larry Wohlers for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000445

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MLS COPE, IO/UNP WICKBERG, EUR/ERA DEAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EFIN EUN BM
SUBJECT: EU RESPONDS TO DEMARCHE ON BURMA REFERENDUM,
OUTLINES STATE OF PLAY ON COMMON POSITION

REF: SECSTATE 26677

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Larry Wohlers for reasons 1
.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The Council Secretariat's Burma officer has
said that the EU will continue its calls for minority group
participation in Burma's political process and will reiterate
its support for Gambari and the UN's Good Offices.
Internally, the debate over the EU's common position on Burma
has hardened divisions among the member states, causing a
stalemate that is likely to result in a continuation of the
current policy. Likewise, member states remain divided on
further punitive measures ahead of the referendum. The
recent Chinese crackdown in Tibet could complicate EU Burma
policy for members who have close ties to China and who will
argue for a more subdued response to what is arguably a worse
human rights situation. End Summary.


2. (C) EU Council Southeast Asia officer Friederike Tschampa
(please protect) said that the EU is in basic agreement with
the diplomatic approach ahead of the referendum in Burma
outlined in reftel. She noted that the EU is planning
another round of demarches targeted at ASEAN nations and will
be looking closely at ways to encourage South Africa to be
more cooperative, or at minimum, "more subtle," on Burma
issues during its upcoming UN Security Council Presidency.
After the referendum, the EU will increase pressure on ASEAN
to offer Burma legal advice on implementing democratic
institutions.


3. (C) Turning to internal EU discussions, Tschampa noted
that debates over the EU's common position on Burma, up for
renewal at the April 28 GAERC meeting, have reinforced the
political divides among the member states. The likely
outcome is that the EU will revert to common ground and
simply roll over the previous common position. There is not
yet a political agreement on the need for further restrictive
measures, nor to what degree to positively interpret the
announcement of the referendum. Tschampa elaborated that a
"silent majority" of member states have taken the position
that even the event of the referendum, flawed though it may
be, is enough to provide some opportunity and could lead to
change. At minimum, they argue, the case cannot be made for
further punitive measures before the referendum takes place,
and the referendum may give the regime a "way out" of their
current behavior. On the other side are member states
pushing for increased pressure in response to the regime's
poor treatment of Gambari earlier this month.


4. (C) Likewise, said Tschampa, there is a concurrent debate
on whether EU members should be actively examining the option
for further economic measures against the regime. While
member states like the UK, Ireland, Denmark, the Netherlands,
and Sweden continue to push the EU to at least do the
technical work in preparation for further economic sanctions,
others argue that the situation has not changed enough to
warrant additional measures, and the EU should wait for the
results of the referendum before taking further action.
According to Tschampa, a ban on investment is looking
increasingly unlikely, as the "French have dug in" against
it, and any banking measures would require further study.
Tschampa noted that EU institutional officials continue to

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internally examine whether current economic measures are
having any impact as well as the means for eliminating any
negative effects on local populations. The stalemate means
that we are unlikely to see additional measures before the
referendum.


5. (C) The Chinese crackdown in Tibet likely will further
complicate upcoming EU and international discussions and
limit what we can expect from China, said Tschampa. Because
EU member states have stronger national interests in China
than they do in Burma, they are likely to take a more nuanced
approach in statements about the situation in Tibet, which
could be considered a worse human rights tragedy. As a
result, member states will be aware that they could find
themselves in a position that is difficult to defend if they
continue to press on Burma more forcefully than they do on
China. Moreover, expectations of how China is prepared to
intervene with Burma should be limited. Tschampa speculated
that the Chinese now are even more unlikely to press on the

BRUSSELS 00000445 002 OF 002


regime to moderate their behavior in a way that the Chinese
themselves will not. Foreign ministers will discuss
China-Tibet at their informal meeting this weekend in
Slovenia, and the outcome could provide some clues into what,
if any, further actions the EU will take on Burma at the
April GAERC.

MURRAY
.