EU: TRYING TO FORGE CONSENSUS ON EUROPEAN PATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000294

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018
TAGS: PREL EAID EUN KV
SUBJECT: EU: TRYING TO FORGE CONSENSUS ON EUROPEAN PATH
FOR KOSOVO; INFORMAL TIME-OUT ON SAA FOR SERBIA; POSSIBLE
FURTHER FLEXIBILITY ON BIH/SAA


Classified By: POL Enlargement Unit Chief V. Carver for reasons 1.4 (b/
d).

Summary
- - - - -


1. (C) According to EU and member state contacts, 26 (save
Cyprus) member states likely will recognize Kosovo by the end
of the year. The Romanian PSC Ambassador floated to the
Charge a proposal that would have Romania, Bulgaria, and
Greece simultaneously recognizing Kosovo independence before
UNMIK's transfer of authority to the ESDP Mission. The
Slovenian Presidency expects more member states to recognize
after the adoption of Kosovo's constitution and the passage
of Ahtisaari-related legislation. The German Mission told us
that Romania and Slovakia could be persuaded with a little
patience. All our contacts criticized the Serbian
Government's lack of protection of the U.S. and other
embassies against demonstrators in Belgrade February 21.
Several contacts hope for a "cooling off" period in Serbia
while technical talks with the EU, including on visa
liberalization, continue. The Slovene Mission reports that
several member states are more eager than ever to be even
more flexible on police reform in BiH and sign an SAA with
Sarajevo, but Belgium and the Netherlands remain reluctant.
End summary.

All But Cyprus Likely will Recognize Kosovo
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (C) Commission Director General for Enlargement Michael
Leigh told visiting DAS Bryza February 21 that all member
states except Cyprus likely would recognize Kosovo by the end
of the year. The Slovene Presidency told us that some member
states (unnamed) are waiting for Pristina to adopt a
constitution and promulgate additional Ahtisaari-related
legislation before recognizing independence. The German
Mission noted that "most" of the sideliners, including Spain
Romania, and Slovakia, would recognize Kosovo over the coming
months. Our Commission, German, and Slovene contacts noted
that the Commission's expected Communique on the W. Balkans,
due March 5, will emphasize the need to move forward on the
accession process for all countries in the region. While
none of our contacts expect movement on the SAA with Serbia
given the Dutch and Belgian positions on ICTY/SAA and the
need for a "cooling off" period of at least a few months
following Kosovo independence, technical talks with Belgrade
continue, including on visa liberalization. Our Slovene
contact observed that Serbia might "behave" in regional
organizations as long as Kosovo is formally represented by
UNMIK. Once UNMIK relinquishes this role, however, Serbia
can be expected to cause problems, but "eventually, Serbian
politicians will recognize the new reality" and see that
impeding Kosovo's regional integration will only damage
Serbia's reputation.

Romanian Informal Proposal for Romanian, Bulgarian, and Greek
Recognition
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - -


3. (C/NF) Romanian PSC Ambassador Ardeleanu floated a
proposal with the Charge February 22. According to
Ardeleanu, both he and Romanian PermRep Lazar Comanescu (who,
according to Ardeleanu, will depart Brussels as early as
April to assume duties as Foreign Policy Advisor to the
President) are trying to determine how to convince Bacescu to
recognize Kosovo. One idea, apparently not yet shared with
Athens and Sofia, is for Romania, Greece, and Bulgaria to use
a trilateral meeting as a platform for recognizing
simultaneously. This should be done ideally before UNMIK
transfers authority to the ESDP Mission, thereby providing
some political cover for each country. Ardeleanu thought
this could justify to their respective publics the need for
recognition in order to move forward on Serbia's and Kosovo's
European aspirations. He observed that the Bucharest NATO
Summit would provide a good opportunity for interested
partners to suggest this scenario. Ardeleanu also noted that
the head of the Social Democratic Party in Romania, a former
ambassador to the U.S., is "reasonable," and might be
persuaded not to introduce the Kosovo issue in the domestic
Romanian political debate.

Trying to Advance Pre-Accession Process for Kosovo
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (C/NF) Leigh told us that the Commission is trying to
figure out how to advance Kosovo on the pre-accession track.
Given that the Commission requires a mandate from the Council
to begin the Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) with
a country, it may have to settle for more technical

BRUSSELS 00000294 002 OF 002


feasibility studies until 26 member states recognize Kosovo.
Cyprus might be out-maneuvered if all other member states are
on board. The German Mission told us February 22 that 22
member states favor beginning work on the SAP immediately,
but five are "totally against" at this stage. The Council
Secretariat W. Balkans Unit pointed to High Rep Solana's

SIPDIS
visit to Kosovo February 19 as a sign of the EU's commitment
to Kosovo's independence and regional stability.

Bosnia-Herzegovina: A Continuing Concern
- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - -


5. (C) According to the Slovene Mission, several member
states see a need for greater "flexibility" in the EU's
interpretation of police reform in BiH. Our contact said
that these member states view signing an SAA with Sarajevo as
critical in light of Kosovo independence and the resulting
rhetoric from Banja Luka. The Dutch and Belgians, however,
are reluctant to lower the bar even further on police reform.
The German Mission stressed that the EU must see "credible"
police reform and that the EU must remain firm about its
bottom line or it would lose credibility with all political
forces in BiH. Both our Slovene and German contacts said
they expect the PIC to support benchmarking for the eventual
closure of OHR. That said, the Slovene stressed that the OHR
must remain open for at least the foreseeable future given
Dodik's public remarks and the reported passage February 22
by the RS Assembly of a resolution stressing its right to
self-determination.

Criticizing Belgrade for Attacks on Embassies
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


6. (U) Several of our contacts called us February 22 to
express concern regarding the February 21 attack on the U.S.
Embassy in Belgrade. Rehn's spokesperson called the use of
force "unacceptable" and called on Serbian authorities to
ensure the proper protection of diplomatic missions in
Serbia. High Rep Solana, at an informal Defense Ministerial
in Slovenia, was quoted by the media as saying that, "Things
will have to calm down before we can recuperate the climate
that would allow for any contact to move on the SAA" with
Serbia.

Comment
- - - -


7. (C) While the majority of member states have (or are
leaning toward) recognized Kosovo, we will need to work with
our EU Quint partners to push for the wavering members to do
so. Otherwise, the EU's internal mechanics of moving
Pristina along the early steps toward EU accession will be
fraught with the same hand-wringing associated with the last
several months of EU deliberations over Kosovo. While the
Commission is on board and wants to move forward, it cannot
do so robustly absent EU consensus. Rehn's cabinet has
assured us that the Donors' Conference on Kosovo will not be
negatively affected, although the World Bank reportedly may
still have Kosovo-related issues to resolve in the weeks to
come.
WOHLERS
.