DEPLOYMENT OF EU FORCE TO CHAD HANGS IN BALANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 000224

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2018
TAGS: PREL PREF ESDP CD EUN
SUBJECT: DEPLOYMENT OF EU FORCE TO CHAD HANGS IN BALANCE

Classified By: PolMinCouns Larry Wohlers for reasons 1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: France is fully committed to deploying the EU
military force to Chad/CAR (EUFOR) and appears to have the
backing of HiRep Solana, the Slovenian Presidency, and
others, according to contacts at the EU and various member
state PermReps. But Austria and Sweden are increasingly
hesitant about exposing their troops to risk in an unstable
environment, and Germany continues to doubt the mission's
scope and capacity. Although the Operational Headquarters
has restarted deployment within the past 24 hours, according
to a UK contact, the EU's Political and Security Committee
(PSC) was meeting today to decide whether it approved. At a
minimum, France faces increased EU member state concern about
the quality of military intelligence given the apparent lack
of warning that rebels were descending on N'Djamena Feb. 1
and 2. French contacts say the Operation Commander, Irish
Gen. Patrick Nash, is empowered to decide when the mission
goes forward, but other member states say there must also be
political consensus. End Summary.


2. (C) The PSC met in emergency session Feb. 3 and suspended
deployment of EUFOR indefinitely in response to violent rebel
attacks in N'Djamena. That decision came less than a week
after EU foreign ministers gave their final approval to the
mission on Jan. 28, some seven months after it was first
proposed by French FM Kouchner. Now the EU is wrestling with
the question of whether it is safe enough in Chad now to
deploy. The PSC debated the issue Feb. 5 and is discussing
it again today. In various conversations with poloffs this
week, Ireland, Germany, France, and Slovenia expressed
support for deployment soon, while Sweden expressed some
doubts, as did Austria, according to reports.


3. (C) The EU is caught between conflicting realities on
several fronts. EU decision-makers want to make certain
before deploying that rebels are not regrouping for another
assault, but they also face the impending start of the rainy
season in a couple of months which means deployment must
start very soon or wait until fall. Additionally, EU leaders
wonder how much they are being manipulated by the political
leadership in Sudan, which is widely assumed here to have
supported the Chadian rebels. Questions being raised by
member states include: Did Sudan orchestrate the rebel
attacks to deter EUFOR on the eve of its deployment? If so,
will it happen again? If EUFOR is canceled, will Sudan have
"won"?


4. (C) France, which has always championed the mission
despite indifference or opposition from a number of EU member
states, including the UK and Germany, firmly expects the

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mission to go forward. The majority of the 3,700 troops will
be French, but 14 other member states have pledged troops and
assets as well. A French contact attributed the current cold
feet by Austria and others to the fact that most of the
troop-contributing countries have little experience in
Africa. He spoke about the need to protect refugees and
civilians and to prevent the entire region - encompassing
Chad, Sudan, Central African Republic, and beyond - from
sliding into chaos. But member states wonder how involved
France was in defending the Deby regime and whether that will
compromise perceptions of EUFOR's neutrality. They also
wonder about the quality of intelligence coming from the
region and whether future rebel attacks could catch EUFOR
unawares.


5. (C) Despite the many doubts and questions being raised in
Brussels, it appears that the mission is still on track to go
forward. HiRep Solana's office said he is fully committed to
seeing EUFOR deploy. The Slovenian Presidency, in a written
statement and in conversations, has stressed that the current
suspension is a delay, not a cancellation. Even Germany,
which has never agreed to participate, said it will not block
deployment and believes that as a face-saving measure, the EU
must now deploy, according to a contact. A French official
also noted that it would be difficult for the EU to defend
continued statements of concern from Brussels that were never
backed up by action. Next week may be an important window
for decision-making in the EU. The Council's Africa Working
Group is scheduled to meet Feb. 11 and 13, and the PSC will
meet Feb. 12, all with an eye to preparing Council
Conclusions for the Feb. 18 General Affairs and External
Relations Council (GAERC) meeting. Comment: While the
Operational Headquarters apparently has restarted deployment,
the PSC is likely to want to give its political approval as
well. End Comment.
MURRAY
.