BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ON EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001887

SIPDIS

STATE PASS EUR/WE AND AF/C

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS PHUM CG BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN FOREIGN MINISTER REMAINS OPTIMISTIC ON EU
BRIDGING FORCE IN THE CONGO

Classified By: Deputy Political Economic Counselor Robert Kiene for rea
sons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: The Belgian MFA was optimistic the morning of
December 12 that the EU would deploy an ESDP mission in Congo
eventually, despite continued opposition from key member
states. The MOD was less optimistic after French President
Sarkozy's statement late afternoon that Europe cannot be
everywhere and that African troops would be better. FM De
Gucht made a strong plea for an ESDP bridging mission in
Eastern Congo the first evening of the December 11-12 EU
Summit. Countries in favor of a mission at a December 11
European meeting were Belgium, Sweden, Ireland, Finland and
Spain. Countries opposed were the UK and Germany, and
Sarkozy's comment indicates French opposition. The MFA is
confident that Germany and probably UK opposition could be
overcome. The Belgian strategy is to work through European
channels the next few weeks to obtain support of all 27
member states or at least benign abstentions from those
opposed. MOD De Crem went on the record for the first time
December 10 in support of a Belgian contribution of 400-500
combat troops if an EU mission is deployed. The MOD
diplomatic advisor was less optimistic that an EU force could
be deployed after Sarkozy's statement. The Belgians will
push again after Javier Solana returns from New York next
week. End Summary.

Belgium and the EU: A Bridging Force is Possible
-------------- ---

2.(C) According to MFA Congo Desk, FM De Gucht made a strong
plea for EU action in Congo the first night (December 11) of
the EU Summit in Brussels. The MFA counts Sweden, Ireland,
Finland, and Spain in support of an EU bridging force in the
Congo. The Swedes even asked why European Battle Groups
exist if they are not going to be used. The United Kingdom
and Germany are on the record as strongly opposed. The
arguments against a bridging force now include not only that
many European armed forces are already overstretched, but
also that countries who want to help in East Africa could
contribute to MONUC. A newer operational argument is that an
EU force would introduce chain of command problems with two
separate forces on the ground. Belgium has countered the
command argument by saying that a UN resolution could define
the separate roles and rules between MONUC and an EU force.
Belgium has been supplying information about the humanitarian
situation to Germany to counter arguments that the
humanitarian crisis is not as serious as reported. Human
Rights Watch is attempting to use the British press to
influence public opinion and move the UK position. MFA
contacts said the Belgians have already seen a weakening in
German opposition and expect to see the prospects for a
bridging force improve.


3. (C) Javier Solana and EU Commissioner Michel tabled a
paper at the Summit on the political, technical and military
elements necessary for an EU bridging force. The paper was
written to respond to UNSYG Ban's request for an EU force.
The possible options include a full-fledged ESDP mission, an
ad-hoc force, contributing forces to MONUC, and a "coalition
of the willing" restricted in size. The general conclusion
from the meeting was that further work was necessary and the
EU would wait for Javier Solana to return from New York,
where he will meet with UN officials Monday December 15. The
discussion will then be taken up again in European circles.

MFA More Optimistic than MOD
--------------


4. (C) Noting that either the ESDP mission or a smaller force
that uses EU infrastructure requires agreement from all 27
member states or at least benign abstentions, the Belgians
plan to work through EU channels to move member states
towards action. Their lobbying of the Germans and their
insistence that the humanitarian situation requires a
response seems to be paying off. The Germans are wary of
putting boots on the ground, which would require approval
from the Bundestag, but the Belgians believe they can prevent
an absolute German no. They also anticipate a softening in
the British position after the press efforts of Human Rights
Watch. The MFA goal was to find a country to lead the force
(possibly Italy or Greece, who take over the European
battlegroups in the New Year) to rally other countries who
wish to contribute to bring the troop contingent up to about
3,000, and to prevent vetoes by other member states. Belgium
could contribute troops for a period of about four months,
possibly assigned to protecting Goma airport. Belgium could
not take the lead as it lacks the resources to set up a

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headquarters. The Belgian parliament would also be hesitant
to vote for a Belgian-led mission for historical and
political reasons, but apparently most assume it would
support Belgian participation in a larger European force.


5. (C) Vincent Mertens de Wilmars, Director of the Diplomatic
Department at the MOD, was less optimistic about the chances
for a European bridging force, especially after statements
issued on December 12 by French President Sarkozy that the
troops are not needed and the job would better be done by
Africans themselves. De Wilmars said that the EU
Commissioner for Development, Belgian Louis Michel, may have
had an influence on the EU position. Michel is in the Congo
and has been bitterly opposed to De Gucht's approach to Congo
policy. De Wilmars admitted the EU decision is based on more
than internal Belgian politics, however. MOD Peter De Crem
had stated publicly on December 10 that Belgium could deploy
400-500 troops as part of a bridging force. However, De
Wilmars told Poloff that even though the Belgian cabinet had
agreed to find funds for such a venture, it was contingent on
the standing up of a European mission, which he sees as less
than likely after Sarkozy's statement.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The Belgian MFA was more optimistic about an EU
bridging force the morning of December 12 than they had been
previously. The internal readout of where various countries
stood was interesting, and the MFA thought that opposition
from key member states could be overcome in the next few
weeks. The MOD's recent statements that Belgium could
provide 400-500 combat troops and find funding if an ESDP
force is deployed was also positive, and counteracted earlier
suspicions that the MFA and MOD were moving in opposite
directions. French President Sarkozy's strong statement
opposed to a European deployment the afternoon of December 12
reduced MOD optimism. The Belgians maintain they will not
lead a mission and will only contribute troops if another EU
country leads. It is certain FM De Gucht will push again in
European channels, with the goal of preventing German, UK,
and now French vetoes of a mission if other countries will go
along.

FOX
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