BELGIUM AND THE CONGO PART TROIS: MFA CONTACTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001749

SIPDIS

STATE PASS EUR/WE KATE SHARP, AF/C CHRISTOPHER LAMORA AND
KARL WYCOFF, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS PHUM PREF KPKO CG BE
SUBJECT: BELGIUM AND THE CONGO PART TROIS: MFA CONTACTS
DISCUSS BELGIUM'S NEXT MOVE AT THE UN

REF: A. BRUSSELS 1680

B. BRUSSELS 1693

Classified By: Economic and Political Counselor Richard M. Eason for re
asons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: PolEconCouns and Poloff joined MFA Congo
Contacts for a wide ranging discussion on Belgium's latest
efforts to end the crisis in the Democratic Republic of the
Congo. Our contacts said Foreign Minister De Gucht would fly
to New York November 25 and 26 to attempt to bolster the
MONUC mandate, and were especially interested in controlling
the flow of minerals out of the Congo. They wanted to know
what the U.S. was considering for an export control regime,
clearly looking for ideas. They described the current press
rancor between FM De Gucht and Development Minister Charles
Michel and his EU Commissioner father as another incarnation
of Flemish and Walloon politics. De Gucht's public criticism
of Kabila was normal for an outspoken politician from
Flanders, where the public is critical of African corruption.
As Francophone politicians, the two Michels have taken the
opportunity to carry messages between African leaders and PM
Leterme; the Walloon public has been more tolerant of African
dysfunction. Regardless of which minister speaks with key
African leaders, the MFA and Minister De Gucht are still
looking for solutions to stop the current violence. As the
possibility of an EU force seems more and more distant, they
are now turning to a MONUC - bolstering strategy. End
Summary.

DE GUCHT TO NEW YORK TO BOLSTER MONUC
--------------


2. (C) FM De Gucht will be in New York City with Belgian
Great Lakes Envoy Karl Dehaene November 25 and 26 meetings at
the UN. His stated goal is to strengthen the MONUC mandate.
Dehaene, and his colleagues, Congo Desk Officer Koen Adam and
Rwanda/Burundi Desk Officer Hugues Chantry, were all focused
on a MONUC solution, and were particularly interested in
finding a way that MONUC might be empowered to do more to
limit violence in the region, with or without the Congolese
Armed Forces (FARDC). In typical Belgian fashion, they might
be grasping at the easiest or most likely consensus they deem
possible, as long as there is a chance it moves towards their
goal of a stronger force. They hope that nations
contributing troops will be supportive of a more robust
mandate.


3. (C) They seemed particularly focused on controlling the
exploitation of eastern Congo's natural resources. Belgium
supports MONUC having a role, but they suggested several
options for tracking and controlling the commodity flow. One
possibility they mentioned (supported by Rwandan President
Kagame) was a multilateral approach under the Tri Partite
regime, perhaps a Tri Partite Plus effort. They asked if the
U.S. was actually working on an IOM approach, they had
learned of during the Brussels Great Lakes meeting October
24, where IOM could play a role in border control. When
Poloff asked which approach seemed most plausible MONUC,
Tri-partite or IOM, the answer was a conjunction of all
three. Poloff responded that a conjunction doesn't always
function. Sorry Schoolhouse Rock.


4. (C) Sensing a subtle yet obvious change in Belgium's main
goal to stop the violence in Eastern Congo, Poloff asked
point blank if the commodity tracking - border control effort
was the new strategy because the European force effort had
failed. The three contacts said that Belgium would continue
to suggest the option, but reality was that a European force
was not supported by other EU members, and if one
materialized it would be too late. This quickly broke into a
heated discussion on how soon was soon enough.

MINISTER DE GUCHT VS MICHELS ON CONGO POLICY
--------------


5. (C) EU Commissioner Louis Michel met with Congolese
President Kabila last month, as did his son Charles Michel.
The younger Michel returned to Brussels with a letter from
Kabila to PM Leterme calling for a warming of Belgian - Congo

BRUSSELS 00001749 002 OF 002


relations. The same letter also made clear that Kabila
considered FM De Gucht persona non grata and that Congo would
not work with him. The Michels have taken the opportunity to
become more involved in Africa policy, with EU Commissioner
Louis Michel receiving a call from rebel leader Laurent
Nkunda over the weekend. In response, De Gucht called the
Michels disloyal in a front page interview with the Flemish
(leftist) paper DE MORGEN, and underscored that as Foreign
Minister he managed foreign policy and directing other
ministers to butt out.


6. (C) Our MFA contacts did not find the current row
particularly strange from the Belgian domestic perspective.
They pointed that De Gucht has always been outspoken, and as
a Flemish politician, scored points with the Flemish majority
over his strong criticism of corruption and human rights
abuses in Congo. His standing in public opinion was not
tarnished by his inability to meet with Congolese leaders or
the ensuing deep freeze in Belgian - Congo relations. They
suggested that the Michels, as Francophone politicians, spied
an opening to increase their political standing within the
Francophone community, where the public has been less
critical of governance problems in former colonies. The June
2009 Belgian regional elections are important for Belgian
politicians, both in Flanders where De Gucht's Open VL & D
will face stiff competition from Flemish nationalist parties,
and the Michels' MR will face strong competition from the
Francophone Socialists in Wallonia and Brussels. Though the
Open VL & D and MR represent the same liberal center-right
pro-business range in the political spectrum, they answer to
two different constituencies: Flemish and Francophone.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) FM De Gucht and the Belgian MFA are keen to find a
solution to the violence in eastern Congo, whether or not FM
De Gucht is persona non grata in Kinshasa and Goma. De Gucht
and his team will arrive in New York next week looking for a
way to strengthen MONUC's mandate, as deployment of a
European force becomes less likely. The U.S. should look to
Belgium as an ally and be open in suggesting a solution that
works, if we are ready to do so. We should particularly take
note of their current effort to find a way to control the
flow of commodities that fund armed groups and contribute to
the violence. The Belgian government is definitely open to
different options, asking us for and suggesting several ideas
and mixes of solutions for the eastern Congo. More than
anything, they want to find a result or way forward; there is
always the chance they might jump at the easiest consensus,
though they have been resolute on a tougher MONUC that would
act forcefully to end the current violence. The US
delegation and Washington should expect Belgium to reach out
prior to UN meetings next week. There may be an opportunity
to channel Belgian efforts in New York, to help ensure
Belgium does not opt for whatever option seems most likely or
support a conjunction of all options on the table.
Unfortunately, not all conjunctions function.

FOX
.