CONGRESSMAN WEXLER'S MEETING WITH BELGIAN MFA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001746

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/WE, EUR/RUS, NEA/IPA AND SCA/A

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2018
TAGS: PREL BE AF IS RU GG UP
SUBJECT: CONGRESSMAN WEXLER'S MEETING WITH BELGIAN MFA
OFFICIALS

Classified By: Political-Economic Counselor Richard Eason, reason 1.4(b
) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On November 12, Congressman Robert Wexler,
chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee
on Europe, met with Dirk Achtens, Director General for
Bilateral Affairs of the Belgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
and Vincente Van Assche, Secretary to the Director General.
Both Belgian officials were eager to hear Wexler's
description of the foreign policy priorities of the incoming
Obama presidential administration. Wexler told Achtens and
Assche that Obama intends to open a dialogue with Iran, but
warned that if dialogue does not produce a change in Iranian
policies, Europe will be expected to support strong measures
against Iran. Van Assche pointed out the difficulties of
forging a European consensus on strong measures, and doubted
that Iran can be persuaded to give up its nuclear program.
He sees the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as central to the
problems in the Middle East, including Iran, and urged the
USG to push for sacrifices on both sides to settle it.
Achtens expressed concern about the security situation in
Afghanistan and the difficulty of establishing a
well-governed state there. He called for a genuine dialogue
with Russia on international problems and reinvigoration of
CFE and other arms control efforts. However, he said that
the U.S. and Europe cannot show weakness in such discussions.
The Belgians expect an intensified interest in Africa under
the new administration, which they share. They were
discouraged that they have been unable to persuade the EU to
take action in the Eastern Congo, but did not see a chance
for unilateral Belgian intervention. Achtens and Assche put
considerable faith in dialogue with entities such as Iran and
Russia. Their intense interest in the new administration's
policies suggests that with diplomatic effort, they could be
convinced to support actions the new President intends to
take as well. End Summary.

MORE COMPATIBLE WITH EUROPE
--------------


2. (C) Wexler said that the new administration brings with it
both opportunities and pitfalls for the transatlantic
relationship. He said that President-elect Obama will have a
world view more compatible with the Europeans on issues such
as climate change, Iraq and Guantanamo. The number of
serious differences will be less than under the Bush
administration, he believes. However, Wexler said, Europe
should be prepared to adjust its policies to the changes that
will come. For example, Obama will probably begin to build
up a dialogue with Iran, beginning at low levels. However,
if the Iranians do not respond well, the new president will
need strong support from Europe for both "sticks and carrots"
to ensure change in Iranian policy. Those who support a
dialogue will lose credibility and the transatlantic
relationship will be damaged if, for example, European
companies are still doing business as usual with Iran after
more active diplomacy fails to produce results, Wexler said.

BELGIANS SEE ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT
CENTRAL TO PROBLEMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
--------------


3. (C) Van Assche said that because of its inherent need to
compromise and find consensus internally, Europe will always
be what he described as a "soft power". Belgium can be of
assistance to the U.S. with Iran, he thinks, having had
recent contacts because of the abduction by bandits of two
Belgian citizens traveling in Iran in 2007. Iran wants to be
recognized as a regional power, Van Assche said, and without
that, it will use other means to assert itself. He was not
sure that Iran can be persuaded to give up its nuclear
program, but it is worth a try, he said. Iran has
differences with other players in the region among the
Afghans, in Iraq and with Al Qaeda. However, it has been
fearful of the U.S. aim of regime change. Direct dialogue
with the Iranians can probably change a lot of things, he
concluded. If sanctions are needed, they must be worldwide,
since the Chinese and Indians will likely be willing to step
in and supply Iran if the Europeans alone go along with
sanctions. Van Assche noted that European banks have ceased
doing business with Iran even without sanctions, as a
commercial decision, provoking complaints from the Iranian
government.


4. (C) Van Assche agreed that Europe will need to show more
solidarity with the United States in the future. He pointed
to Afghanistan, where Belgium sees intervention as justified
and has sent over 500 troops. Still, he continued, it is
necessary to build up the state's functioning there. This
will be difficult, as such a state really has never existed

in Afghanistan before, he added.


5. (C) Van Assche put emphasized a perceived need for a new
approach to Middle East policy. While Israeli actions do not
justify terrorism, they are a factor to be considered and
create anger among the Arab people, he said. The Belgians
and Europeans feel they have little influence over Israel,
far less than the United States, which is a "big friend" to
Israel, in his words. He added that if the U.S. will not
press Israel over its actions in the occupied territories, or
over settlements, Europe feels powerless. The key question
is whether the USG is ready to push courageously for
sacrifice on both sides, he concluded. Wexler replied that
there will be no difference in substance between the Bush and
Obama administrations in their approach to the
Israel-Palestinian issue. However, there will be a
difference in the sense of urgency for a solution, and Iran
and Iraq are more pressing issues, Wexler said, . There is
little the United States and Europe can do to resolve
internal differences among the Palestinians. They can
support economic development, for example, but Hamas will
have to make its own decisions about cooperating for peace.
Another difference will be U.S. support for Israeli
initiatives, such as its talks with Syria via intermediation
by Turkey. Finally, however, any progress with Syria or the
Palestinians is undermined if the Iranians are not engaged
and are causing problems. Wexler said he sees a consensus
developing in Israel for more comprehensive talks on a
broader range of issues. At the same time, one must be
realistic, he said. The United States is involved in two
wars, has a serious economic crisis, and problems loom in
Pakistan. However, if Europe spends the same energy as the
United States on Middle East issues, it will mean progress,
Wexler said. Achtens agreed that it is important for the
United States and Europe to work together. Van Assche
warned, based on his experience, that the Iranians are very
skilled negotiators and the USG must have a clear strategy
before entering into discussions with them. Wexler said that
President-elect Obama took a political risk by endorsing
discussions with Iran and he reiterated that Europe has a
special role to play in support of such a policy.

AFGHANS NEED SECURITY AND GOOD GOVERNANCE
--------------


6. (C) Achtens said that prospects in Afghanistan are "not
bright". Elections may be held, he said, but they are not
worth much if the result is election of warlords to
Parliament and thereby their legitimation. The U.S. and
Europe must encourage good governance and appropriately vet
candidates, he said. Wexler said that the arrival of General
Petraeus, who is highly respected, may well bring a better
result. Defense Secretary Gates is also viewed as doing a
good job, and is likely to stay on after January, he added,
with support from both Democrats and Republicans in Congress.


DIALOGUE WITH RUSSIA, BUT FROM STRENGTH
--------------


7. (C) Achtens said that Minister De Gucht is convinced that
a genuine dialogue with Russia must continue, although the
U.S. and Europe cannot appear weak. Part of the reason for
the Russians' new aggressiveness, he said, is their feeling
that they have been ignored and their interests slighted for
too many years. The USG had a lot of sympathy in Russia
after 9/11, he said, but then the Russians saw a change in
U.S. policy, exemplified by missile defense in the Czech
Republic and Poland. While Russia's foreign policy is
clumsy and its domestic regime is "not nice", they should be
involved in appropriate ways in international problem
solving. Turning to the Georgia conflict, Achtens said that
Russian claims of a sphere of influence in the Caucasus are
not a good thing. The U.S. and Europe must talk to Russia
until they understand they must behave properly, he said. He
speculated that the Russians will soon understand that they
are weaker than they think, having lost a lot in the economic
crisis and in falling oil prices. Achtens said that it is
important to re-emphasize the CFE and arms control and get
Russia back into that framework.

A NEW EMPHASIS ON AFRICA
--------------


8. (C) Achtens suggested that the U.S. has not been very
interested in Africa up to now, but that may change under
President Obama. Wexler agreed that there is a much higher
focus and level of expertise among Obama's advisors about
African issues than ever before. The President has hands-on
knowledge, passion and interest which will translate into

higher interest in the State Department, Defense Department
and other USG agencies. Achtens said that Belgium had
strongly supported sending an EU mission including Belgian
troops to the Eastern Congo. It was not able to act on its
own because of its involvement in Afghanistan and its limited
military resources. However, he said, Belgian officials know
the region, are supported by a great deal of public interest
in African issues, and are ready to help. The main hindrance
to controlling the conflict in the Eastern Congo is the lack
of any structure of a stable state structure in the Congo, he
concluded.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) Comment: The Belgian officials with whom Congressman
Wexler spoke were clearly eager to hear his opinion of the
directions U.S. foreign policy will take under the Obama
administration. They focused on a harder USG line with
Israel as a key to making progress in the Middle East and
elsewhere. They betrayed a preference for discussion over
action, but were skeptical themselves about Europe's ability
to speak with a strong, unified voice. While they welcomed
the possibility that the new administration will be more open
to dialogue, not only with Europe but also with Iran, Russia
and others, they offered little in the way of creative
thinking and a clear policy designed to reach a result. The
curiosity and interest in the new administration's policy
directions displayed by Achtens and Assche suggest that
Belgian foreign policy makers may be willing to support U.S.
interests more actively in many areas if they are cultivated
assiduously by incoming administration officials. End
Comment.

BUSH
.