EU WILL RESUME TALKS WITH RUSSIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001741

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL ETRD RU GG EUN
SUBJECT: EU WILL RESUME TALKS WITH RUSSIA

REF: SECSTATE 119280

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Chris Davis, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

THIS CABLE, DATED NOV. 10, WAS DELAYED IN TRANSMISSION FOR
TECHNICAL REASONS.


1. (SBU) Summary. Per reftel instructions, USEU spoke to
French presidency, Council Secretariat, and Commission
contacts about how the EU will deal with Russia at the
November 10 GAERC and at the November 13-14 EU-Russia summit.
All contacts told us that the EU would resume talks with
Russia on a new agreement to succeed the 1997 Partnership
and Cooperation Agreement. The French EU presidency and
Council Secretariat legal service agree that no decision by
member states is required to resume postponed (not suspended)
talks, and most member states appear to view resumption of
negotiations with Russia as being in the EU's interest. The
remaining question for the EU seems to be how the resumption
of negotiations with Russia will be presented, both to
European publics and to Russia. It looks unlikely that GAERC
conclusions on the topic will be issued November 10, as that
would require the agreement of all 27 member states, and
Lithuania remains strongly opposed. More likely is some sort
of message to the press that satisfies many member states'
desire to "balance" the decision to resume talks. At the
EU-Russia summit on November 13-14 in Nice, the EU will
listen to President Medvedev's proposal for a new
pan-European security treaty, but will not take a position on
it. Contacts, by the way, did not think the Nice summit would
produce much on trade; however, RELEX is aware of eventual
Georgian objections to Russian WTO accession. End Summary.

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EU/Russia Agreement Talks To Resume,
with Press Statement Likely for Balance
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2. (C) USEU Political Officer conveyed points from reftel
demarche to French presidency and Council Secretariat
contacts in Brussels. In response, presidency contacts said
that the presidency is aware of the USG position and that the
resumption of talks on a New EU/Russia Agreement will be
accompanied by a public message reiterating the need for
Russia to respect the terms of the cease-fire agreements.
Council Secretariat contacts told USEU that the Council
Secretariat legal service shares the view of the French
presidency that no decision is necessary to resume talks with
Russia. Moreover, nearly all member states view a resumption
of talks as in their best interest. Therefore, talks would
resume. Council Secretariat contacts saw the only remaining
question on this point as being how to present the resumption
of talks, both to European publics and to Russia, in order to
make it clear that resumption of talks did not mean a return
to business as usual with Russia. The EU would not likely
issue conclusions on this point, because conclusions would
have to be agreed by all member states, and the Lithuanians
had made clear they would not agree. More likely was a press
communiqu. Contacts paraphrased draft press language as
including statements like "the Georgia crisis has affected
our trust in Russia" and recalling Council conclusions of
September 1 (note: the September 1 conclusions require Russia
to withdraw to pre-August 7 numbers and positions) and
October 15. Draft language also "takes into account Russian
actions in pursuing negotiations," but states "dialogue and
negotiation are the best ways of pursuing EU values and do
not in any way mean a recognition of the status quo. The EU
will remain vigilant, in particular regarding the common
neighborhood." Contact noted the reference to the common
neighborhood was important because it suggested that if
Russia pursued an unconstructive approach in the next round
of Geneva talks, there could be consequences for the
Agreement talks. One possible consequence, in contact's
view, could be to freeze one section of the talks, such as
the section on external security, while other areas went
forward. Contact added that, ironically, there is a
possibility that despite the EU's decision to resume talks,
the Russians could end up playing hard to get and back away.


3. (C) Before the GAERC, Pol M-C relayed reftel points to
five other Commission and Council contacts, to include Gunnar
Wiegand, RELEX Director for Russia, and Richard Tibbels,
special assistant to RELEX Deputy DG Hugues Mingarelli.
Wiegand referred to the Commission's November 5 "Review of
EU-Russia Relations" communication to the Council, which
advocates scheduling negotiation sessions now, while not

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accepting the status quo in Georgia, primarily because that
would be in the EU's self-interest. Weigand's deputy, Michael
Webb, added separately that the pursuit of the EU's interests
in its relations with Russia will also serve to advance
points of common interest with the U.S., particularly as
regards the fulfilment of international commitments. On the
Council side, Carl Hallergard of HR Solana's private office
said that, while our points would certainly be made at the
GAERC by some member states, it is not "proportional
conditionality" to further postpone these negotiations when
there is a need to move forward particularly on energy
security, which is in the EU's interests. That said, the EU
will state clearly what it expects from Russia regarding
Georgia. Hallergard noted, however, that the Georgian issue
is "fundamental" for Russia.


4. (U) Just prior to the GAERC, HR Solana himself said he
was very hopeful talks with Russia would resume, though not
as business as usual. He noted, for example, that Russian
forces in South Ossetia and Abkhazia are not there as
peacekeepers, and their numbers exceed those prior tot he
conflict.

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EU will "listen" to Pan-European Security
Proposal at the EU-Russia Summit
--------------


5. (C) Regarding Russian President Medvedev's proposal for a
new pan-European security treaty, Council Secretariat
contacts told USEU that the Russians had pushed hard to have
this discussed as a special item on the November 14 EU-Russia
summit agenda. The French presidency had told the Russians
that the EU would listen to this as a sub-item on the
external security portion of the agenda, but that the EU
would take no position. The presidency also reiterated in
its response to Russia that the EU would coordinate with the
United States and Canada on this issue. Our contact noted
that while French President Sarkozy's proposal to discuss the
security treaty idea at the OSCE had not been coordinated
with other EU member states in advance, it was possible this
would be the approach the EU advocated.


6. (C) Carl Hallergard of HR Solana's private told us that,
short of discussions on the matter, the Council Secratariat
had listened to Russian presentations on the Medvedev
proposal, which he characterized as a "funny catalogue of old
principles."


7. (C) Speaking more broadly on the EU-Russia summit agenda,
Council Secretariat contacts said that they did not expect
much to come out of it on trade or WTO issues. The EU will
press Russia to fulfill its bilateral commitments, with a
focus on export duties on wood and scrap metal and on
sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) issues. The EU will state
that it is interested in a free trade area, but that WTO
accession must come first. Contact said the EU hopes this
will be an incentive for Russian "good behavior" in Geneva.
(Note: Separately, a Commission DG RELEX contact told USEU
that potential Georgian objections to Russian WTO accession
was now on the EU's radar screen. He added that discussions
with the Georgians as well as the Russians on this could
become "quite tricky.") Regarding discussion of third
country issues at the EU-Russia summit, Council Secretariat
contact said that time would be short, with barely an hour
for the plenary session and less than an hour for lunch. The
EU's priority issue for this discussion would be Georgia, on
which it would reiterate the need for Russia to meet its
commitments. Iran would be discussed, time permitting, with
the EU pushing Russia to be more constructive. To our
contact's knowledge, there was no EU talking point
specifically for the summit agenda on Russian arms sales to
Iran and Syria, although he said the EU does otherwise raise
the issue frequently with the Russians.

Silverberg
.