DE GUCHT SEPT 3 TRIP TO MOSCOW; EXCHANGE WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001354

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2018
TAGS: EUN PREL PGOV GG RS YI AF PK BE
SUBJECT: DE GUCHT SEPT 3 TRIP TO MOSCOW; EXCHANGE WITH
BELGIAN MFA AHEAD OF EU FONMIN (GYMNICH) MEETING SEPT 5-6

REF: A. A) STATE 93272

B. B) STATE 93264

Classified By: POLOFF JUDITH HEIMANN FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) De Gucht September 3 Call in Moscow on Lavrov
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During a September 2 call on MFA Deputy Cabinet Chiefs Fons
Borginon (multilateral affairs) and Thomas Lambert (European
bilateral affairs, who attended the September 1 EU Summit),
they explained to POLOFF that Foreign Minister De Gucht is
doing a roundtrip to Moscow tomorrow (September 3rd) to speak
with Russian Fonmin Lavrov. The two aides explained that De
Gucht has long had an invitation from Lavrov to come to
Moscow and had planned to take it up in December but chose to
go now, in order to take advantage of the relationship he
built with Lavrov when De Gucht was chairing the OSCE two
years ago. They pointed out that De Gucht, because of the
OSCE experience, is more familiar, as well as perhaps more
deeply interested, in the area concerned in the present
Georgia/Russia/energy dependence crisis than most EU FonMins.
Also, when the Belgians speak, the Russians know that it is
not because of a desperate national dependence on Russian
fuel (since Belgium gets most of its fuel elsewhere).


2. (SBU) Asked what De Gucht is likely to say to Lavrov, they
referred to today's (Sept 2) De Tijd which has an interview
with De Gucht in which, under the heading, "EU Must Work as a
Cartel to Buy Its Energy." De Gucht says that doing that
will help make a better balance in relations with Russia.
Europe must also have a joint authority to invest in
alternatives, such as the Nabucco pipeline and in
coordinating the European distribution system so that it
won't be so easy for Russia to play the individual countries
off against each other.


3. (SBU) De Gucht also is cited in the newspaper article as
saying that Russia's recognition of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia
is a mistake on Russia's part, if it hoped by doing so o
underline its international power; instead this action leaves
it internationally isolated. On the Russians' part, it was
not logical or well thought-through. This recognition raises
questions about Tchetchens, about Nagorno-Karabakh, etc.


4. (C) These aides to Minister De Gucht thought De Gucht
would say to Lavrov that the two sides need to keep talking
to one another and that Russia needs to de-escalate the
current crisis by pulling Russia's troops all the way back to
where they were pre-August 7. De Gucht might also point out
that, while the Russian actions might look like giving them a
short-term advantage, in the medium and long-term, it will
not have turned out to be a good thing for them because it
weakens their relationship with Europe and weakens Russia's
position under international law. It is for the latter
reason, among others, that the all-Russian security mechanism
needs to be replaced by some international one, ideally the
UN.


5. (C) MFA SEES THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON GEORGIA CRISIS AS
DRAWING THE EU TOGETHER
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- - --
These aides were pleased to note that European Council
President-in-Office Sarkozy, as well as Barroso and Solana
are going together to Moscow to call on the Russian
President, PM and FonMin and are then going on to Tbilisi to
do the same. For these three entities to work together so
closely is new. They were also pleased that the
extraordinary European Council of September 1 was able to get
all 27 member-states on board within the programmed time, in
spite of there having been so little pre-planning time. When
poloff suggested that some would have wished for sanctions
against Russia, given the excellent and strong language of
the European Council's condemnation of Russia's unacceptable
action, these MFA aides said that Russia would certainly see
as a clear indication that Europe's strong statements were
backed by actions ("positive sanctions," they called them) in
the many different, concrete and prompt ways in which Europe
has shown it is prepared to help Georgia.



6. (C) GEORGIA AT THE GYMNICH
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Poloff went down the list in Ref A:

BRUSSELS 00001354 002 OF 002



--Regarding an ESDP mission, MFA Deputy Cabinet Chief to
Minister De Gucht for Multilateral Affairs Fons Borginon said
the mission will definitely be civilian but that final
decisions about it will probably be discussed at the Gymnich
but not decided until the GAERC (EU FonMins) EU Council
meeting of September 15.

--Regarding OSCE Monitors, Belgium had already offered up to
ten monitors and one of them is already in Tbilisi. He is
from the police and others may be civil or military,
depending upon what OSCE wants and who Belgium has ready to
deploy.

-- Regarding reconstruction, a joint EU Commission and
Council Secretariat assessment team has been in Georgia since
August 22 and is focusing especially on recontruction of
damaged transportation and communication.

-- As part of strengthening the ties of partners and friends
in the region near Russia, the Belgians pointed out that the
item number 9 in the Conclusions of the September 1 EC
Council extraordinary summit on Georgia/Russia was put in
thanks to the Belgians. It reads (poloff's translation):
"The recent events illustrate the need for Europe to
intensify its efforts regarding the security of the supply of
its energy. The European Council (i.e., EU heads of state
and government) urges the Council, in cooperation with the
Commission to examine possible initiaves for that purpose, in
particular as regards the diversification of the sources of
energy and the routes for supplying it."

--Asked about the offer Belgium has made of 500,000 euros of
humanitarian aid for Georgia, they said they thought it was
more likely to go via the Red Cross, because that
organization is already in place or about to be.


7. (C) NON-GEORGIA AT THE GYMNICH
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Alerted that the Gymnich will not have time for all the items
originally envisioned (ref b),POLOFF asked which items were
most likely to be raised. They said Afghanistan/Pakistan and
Serbia/ICJ.

--Afghanistan/Pakistan: Pointing out that Minister of
Defense Pieter De Crem is currently in Afghanistan, greeting
the arrival there of 4 Belgian F16s and the accompanying
troops, they added that this is a very difficult dossier to
handle in Belgium and that public opinion is increasingly
impatient with the current emphasis on primarily military
solutions in the region. They implied that, given the head
of steam that is building up in the media and in the
political parties and which will probably lead to a
parliamentary hearing on the matter of the F16s this month,
the GOB needs to be able to show that new approaches, not so
heavily focused on military solutions, are in the process of
being developed.

--Serbia and the ICJ Advisory Opinion on Kosovo: These aides
said the EU-27 are trying to develop a common position on
this matter. They hinted that Belgium's position might
include a willingness to support a request for an ICJ
advisory opinion, since it is a step forward from Serbia's
previous unwillingness to entertain the idea of less than 100
percent Kosovo is part of Serbia. Also, the argument that
UNSCR 1244 gives a legal basis for Kosovo's sovereignty is
somewhat weakened if we who hold that view are unwilling to
let ICJ judges look at it.

BUSH
.