DAS MERKEL DISCUSSES RUSSIA, BELARUS, UKRAINE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001345

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN OSCE UK RU BO MD GG
SUBJECT: DAS MERKEL DISCUSSES RUSSIA, BELARUS, UKRAINE,
MOLDOVA WITH EU

Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Christopher Davis for reasons 1.4 (a) and (d
)


1. (C) Summary: Deputy Assistant Secretary David Merkel
discussed Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova with EU
officials in Brussels August 24 and 25. EU officials
discussed their expectations for an extraordinary European
Council meeting on Georgia and Russia September 1. Just back
from Minsk, Merkel discussed possible responses by the U.S.
and EU to the release of political prisoners in Belarus. On
Ukraine, they discussed the upcoming September 9 EU-Ukraine
summit. On Moldova, they compared notes on possible messages
to send President Voronin.


2. (U) Merkel met with Helga Schmid, Council Secretariat
Director of the Policy Planning Unit; Pirkka Tapiola, Policy
Advisor on Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova; Hugues Mingarelli,
Commission Deputy Director General for External Relations and
European Neighborhood Policy; Christine Roger, French
Political and Security Committee Ambassador; Carl Hallergard,
Advisor to EU High Representative Solana; and Kalman Mizsei,
EU Special Representative for Moldova. End Summary.

Russia/Georgia
--------------


3. (C) French Political and Security Committee Ambassador
Christine Roger told visiting DAS David Merkel that the EU,s
September 1 extraordinary Council meeting will focus on four
areas. EU Heads of State and Government will discuss the
situation on the ground in Georgia; possibilities for
enhancing the EU presence in support of the ceasefire in
Georgia; EU humanitarian and development assistance to
Georgia; and EU relations with Russia. Roger said that
member states would most likely agree to deploy EU monitors
with a mandate complementing that of the OSCE military
monitoring officers (MMOs). She added that down the road,
this mission could evolve into a peacekeeping mission, if
there was agreement by the Russians. Merkel told
interlocutors that in the U.S. view, EU and OSCE monitors
should eliminate the need for Russian patrols. Merkel also
stressed that if there were costs for actions already taken
by Russia, then EU threats regarding future actions would
have more credibility. However, neither Roger nor Council
contacts we spoke to expected the EU to agree to strong
immediate consequences for Russia,s behavior. Rather, they
predicted that EU leaders would impose requirements on Russia
for moving forward with a constructive relationship.


4. (C) Carl Hallergard, Advisor to EU High Representative for
Common Foreign and Security Policy Javier Solana, told Merkel
that many member states feel that there is logic in taking a
stronger stance against Russia in the NATO forum than in the
EU, since the EU has political capital in implementing the
agreement reached and wants its monitors to be able to
operate quickly on the ground. They see a trade-off between
"taking sides" and "being involved." Merkel agreed that EU
presence was important, but should not come at too high a
cost. Roger said that if Russian President Medvedev decided
to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia,
there would likely be a strong reaction by the European
Council. (Note: the meetings took place August 25, before
Medvedev,s decision to go forward with recognition. End
Note) Merkel stressed the importance of conveying that
recognition would have consequences for EU-Russia relations
and noted the value of bolstering other countries in the
region.


5. (C) Hallergard told Merkel that in addition to providing
more money and experts on the ground, the assistance
component of the European Council meeting would likely
include a look at remedying the problem of cheaper, easier
travel to the EU for Russian passport holders in Georgia. He
noted that Solana would likely travel to Georgia prior to the
September 1 European Council meeting.

Belarus
--------------


6. (C) Merkel briefed interlocutors on his trip to Minsk and

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suggested that the United States and EU coordinate responses
to recent positive developments in Belarus. Merkel,s
interlocutors agreed on the need to respond quickly to the
release of political prisoners, with both Council Secretariat
and Commission interlocutors stressing that waiting until
after the Belarus elections could discourage Minsk from
taking further steps. At the same time, it would be
important to keep some of the pressure on Minsk in the
lead-up to elections. Council Secretariat Director for
Policy Planning Helga Schmid and Policy Advisor Pirkka
Tapiola said that the Council Secretariat was considering the
possibility of suspending the EU,s visa ban. Tapiola
explained that suspension would be the easiest model on which
to get EU consensus, allowing for an announcement before the
elections. Suspension of the visa ban, Tapiola explained,
did not mean officials would necessarily get a visa. It
would be the prerogative of member states. Merkel said that
if the EU made that announcement, the USG would express
support and state that we would review our own list following
the elections. Merkel noted that the opposition was
considering boycotting the elections, but that the main
opposition leaders supported our engagement with Minsk.
Commission Deputy Director General Hugues Mingarelli told
Merkel he planned to travel to Belarus August 29 at the
request of Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner. His
objective would be to acknowledge the positive steps Minsk
had taken while conveying what still needed to be done.
Merkel noted he had delivered the same message to Minsk as
the EU regarding steps the government needed to take to
improve the election process. Tapiola said he planned to be
in Belarus during the elections not as an official observer,
but to observe the general atmosphere.

Ukraine
--------------


7. (C) Merkel said the timing of the EU ) Ukraine summit,
to be held September 9, was excellent, allowing the EU an
opportunity to show support for Russia,s neighbors at a
critical moment. Council Secretariat interlocutors and the
French PSC ambassador agreed, but cautioned that Ukraine,s
expectations had to be damped down. They noted that EU
member states were divided on enlargement, and the lack of
ratification of the Lisbon treaty had exacerbated the
problem. Council Secretariat contacts noted High Rep Solana
might try to call Prime Minister Julia Tymoshenko later the
week of August 25.

Moldova
--------------


8. (C) Merkel discussed with EU interlocutors the importance
of having conversations with Moldovan President Voronin
before he went to the 3 plus 2 meeting in Vienna September 8.
The objective, Merkel said, should be to reaffirm to Voronin
that the U.S. and EU are looking for opportunities to help
Moldova, particularly given the grim prospects for progress
on Transnistria.


9. (U) This message has not been cleared by DAS Merkel.

MURRAY
.