Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BRUSSELS1055
2008-07-14 08:24:00
CONFIDENTIAL
USEU Brussels
Cable title:  

FRIENDS OF BELARUS: ELECTIONS AND KOZULIN

Tags:  PREL PGOV ENRG PHUM KDEM EUN BO 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6100
OO RUEHAG RUEHROV
DE RUEHBS #1055/01 1960824
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 140824Z JUL 08
FM USEU BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KYIV
RUEHSK/AMEMBASSY MINSK
RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001055 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG PHUM KDEM EUN BO
SUBJECT: FRIENDS OF BELARUS: ELECTIONS AND KOZULIN

Classified By: Acting Polmincouns Alyce Tidball, for reasons 1.5 (D) an
d (E).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001055

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG PHUM KDEM EUN BO
SUBJECT: FRIENDS OF BELARUS: ELECTIONS AND KOZULIN

Classified By: Acting Polmincouns Alyce Tidball, for reasons 1.5 (D) an
d (E).


1. (C) Summary. On July 3, EUR A/S Daniel Fried
participated in an informal gathering of the informal Friends
of Belarus contact group to encourage continued Transatlantic
policy cooperation. The meeting was convened by the
Lithuanian Political Director on the margins of the U.S.-EU
Political Directors meeting in Versailles, France. Poldirs
from several EU member states reaffirmed the basic conditions
for improvement in relations with the West and the need to
continue to support civil society. Differences of opinion
emerged on the extent to which Transatlantic partners should
respond positively to any progress in the conduct of national
election - particularly if the most prominent political
dissident Aleksandr Kazulin remained imprisoned. Several EU
member states expressed concern about the decline in
Belarusian visa applications to Europe as a result of
recently imposed higher standardized EU visa fees. The
inability of the West to counter creeping Russian influence
over Belarus' economic sector was also discussed.
End Summary

--------------
Participants
--------------


2. (U) On July 3, the Transatlantic Friends of Belarus
contact group met informally at the political director's
level on the margins of the U.S.-EU Political Directors
meeting in Versailles, France. Lithuanian Political Director
Zygimantas Pavilionis chaired the meeting that included
counterparts from the following member states: Czech
Republic, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Poland, Sweden, and the
UK. EUR A/S Dan Fried represented the United States and was
accompanied by USEU Poloff (notetaker). Helga Schmid, Policy
Planning Director and Karel Kovanda, RELEX Deputy Dirgen
represented the EU Council Secretariat and European
Commission respectively.

--------------
Russian Influence Growing
--------------


3. (C) Lithuanian Poldir Pavilionis opened the meeting with
a call for closer coordination among Transatlantic partners
in the lead up to the Belarusian Parliamentary elections. He

lamented that the EU and U.S. had "lost the pulse of
coordination" and were acting "individually" for the last few
months. Voicing the concerns of several member states and
the Council Secretariat, Pavilionis saw several economic
warning signs of Russian encroachment on Belarusian
sovereignty including its steady accumulation of the
country's strategic economic assets as well as a sharp
increase in Belarus' budget deficit. Despite Lukashenko's
attempts at economic reform, the Lithuanians assessed that
Russia would complete its buy-out within two to three years
if this trend continues. He defended German and Lithuanian
participation in Minsk's opening to foreign investors as not
inconsistent with their willingness or ability to "push on
moral standards." Pavilionis saw evidence of a worsening
political climate in the continued imprisonment of Kazulin,
new detentions of youth activists, official harassment of the
mass media and NGOs, as well as the diplomatic assault on the
U.S. Embassy in Minsk. He exhorted the U.S. and EU to work
together to pressure the regime on the conduct of elections,
treatment of the political opposition, media freedom, civil
society.


4. (C) EU Council Secretariat Policy Planning Director
Helga Schmid said she would visit Minsk on behalf of the EU
on July 6-7 with a message focused on prisoner releases and
the conduct of elections. She was not sanguine about
prospects for progress as a result of her planned meetings
with the head of the Belarusian national election commission
and key advisors in the Presidential Administration. She
expected the MFA would be more forward-leaning, but limited
in its ability to deliver.

--------------
Managing Responses to Kazulin and Elections
--------------


5. (C) A/S Fried assured Schmid of U.S. solidarity and
support for her visit to Minsk. He emphasized that the U.S.
Embassy had come perilously close to pulling out of Minsk.
He asked Schid to carry two key messages to Minsk. First,

BRUSSELS 00001055 002 OF 002


that the United States was not interested in confrontation
and had demonstrated a willingness to have relations.
Second, the United States and EU were united in our approach
and intentions; if (and only if) Belarus moved forward, we
would offer positive steps in return. To be sure, the United
States placed a higher priority on the release of Kazulin and
other political prisoners than it did on restaffing the U.S.
Embassy. A/S Fried and others concurred that Lukashenko's
advisors would try to develop options based on a desire to
take the smallest steps possible needed to trigger a response
from the West. German Poldir Volker Stanzl added that the
release of Kazulin and not the elections would be the
"decisive moment" in Belarus' relations with the West. For
this reason, he stressed that Kazulin's release be the major
message of Schmid's trip to Minsk. The Friends concurred
that the problem for the West would be the regime's
insistence on sequencing Kazulin's release after meeting our
other conditions.


6. (C) The UK, Czech, and Swedish Poldirs believed that
elections could be an opportunity to create new momentum in
Western policy toward Belarus. It would be essential to hold
the Belarusian regime to its earlier commitments to the OSCE
regarding elections and press for better treatment of the
opposition. The Lithuanian Poldir was deeply skeptical that
Lukashenko would permit the elections to allow for any
meaningful political reform. Consequently, A/S Fried stated
that Transatlantic partners should be careful to calibrate
responses to any positive changes so as not to undercut
pressure to release Kazulin.

--------------
Visa Fee Problems
--------------


7. (C) An exchange of views between several EU member state
Poldirs on EU visa policy toward Belarus illuminated EU
divisions on this issue. Czech, Latvian, and Lithuanian
Friends worried that high EU visa fees were hampering average
Belarusian citizens' ability to visit Europe and thereby
undermining Belarusian civil society contact with the West.
In Latvia alone, application rates had plunged over the last
few months as a result of the higher fees. Germany
dismissed this as a problem, noting that nearly one third of
its visas were issued free of charge. Nonetheless, the
Baltic Poldirs suggested an informal harmonization of visa
policy among a coalition of willing EU member states, in the
absence of a formal consensus of the entire membership.

--------------
Energy Pricing
--------------


8. (C) Poldirs briefly discussed the implications for the
regime in Minsk of rising energy cost. The Lithuanians
expressed concern that once Russian-supplied oil and gas
prices for Belarus would reach world market prices by 2011,
Russia would divert gas currently supplied to Lithuania to
Belarus instead. This would be particularly painful for
Lithuania, whose domestic energy production was shrinking as
a result of the forthcoming closure of the Ingulina nuclear
plant.

9.(U) EUR A/S Fried has cleared this message for
transmission.
Wohlers
.