Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BRATISLAVA32
2008-01-24 13:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bratislava
Cable title:  

AMBASSADOR OBSITNIK'S COURTESY CALL ON FORMER

Tags:  LO PO PREL PGOV 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHSL #0032/01 0241342
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O 241342Z JAN 08
FM AMEMBASSY BRATISLAVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1474
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000032 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018
TAGS: LO PO PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR OBSITNIK'S COURTESY CALL ON FORMER
PRIME MINISTER DZURINDA

Classified By: Ambassador Vincent Obsitnik, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000032

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/NCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2018
TAGS: LO PO PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR OBSITNIK'S COURTESY CALL ON FORMER
PRIME MINISTER DZURINDA

Classified By: Ambassador Vincent Obsitnik, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. In a cordial and lively one-hour
conversation, former Prime Minister Mikulas Dzurinda outlined
his strategy for wooing voters back to his party, the Social
Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU). In an series of public
meetings throughout the country over the next several months,
Dzurinda will combine "criticism with alternatives," in an
effort to "open the eyes" of the public to what he believes
are serious shortcomings on the part of the Fico government.
Dzurinda acknowledged that he faces an uphill battle given
the government's high approval ratings and the overall
positive socio-economic conditions in the country; he is
resigned to the Fico government serving out its term (until
2010). He expressed serious concern about what he described
as a shift in emphasis in Slovak policy away from a strong
focus on NATO and EU priorities, as well as the government's
"animosity" toward the opposition, NGOs, media and "anything
private." Dzurinda plans to meet with new Polish PM Tusk
during his January 18 visit to Bratislava and, characterizing
Tusk as a "very good guy," predicted that negotiations with
the Poles would return to the right track. Ambassador
Obsitnik expressed appreciation for the close bilateral
relations Dzurinda cultivated during his premiership and
praised the notable political and economic progress made by
Slovakia under his leadership. In a separate conversation,
Dzurinda's former Foreign Minister, Eduard Kukan, told us
that his boss might be more reconciled to the inevitability
of Kosovo's independence. End Summary.


Dzurinda's Concerns...
======================



2. (C) Dzurinda opened the conversation by stressing his
disappointment with the foreign policy orientation of the
Fico Government. The partnership with the U.S. should be
pre-eminent, he stated unequivocally. Citing the Prime
Minister's recent presence at a Cuban Embassy event
celebrating the anniversary of the revolution, Dzurinda said
the foreign policy priorities and statements of the current

government as out of step with that model. Recent
initiatives related to healthcare, pensions, NGOs and media
also are worrisome and seem designed to take Slovakia back,
not forward, according to Dzurinda. Despite these negative
developments, the full impact of which might not be felt for
some time according to Dzurinda, the economy is good and
people are relatively content with their current
circumstances and with the government. Dzurinda acknowledged
that the opposition faced an uphill fight given Fico's
popularity and he thought the government would last through
its natural term (2010). However, he said he feels that it
is his obligation to lead the efforts to "tear the mask" off
Fico and deleterious policies.


and his Response...
===================


3.(C) Dzurinda told Ambassador Obsitnik that he would be
launching a new effort to reach out to the Slovak people in a
series of large public meetings over the next several months.
Dzurinda explained that he plans to use these events to
present his critiques of the current government and to lay
out SDKU programs on health care education, environment, and
other key issues. Dzurinda also expressed certainty that
scandals touching on the current government were serious and
would begin to take a toll. (Comment: Given the nature of
Slovak politics, Dzurinda may well have potentially damaging
information regarding members of the coalition, but his
attacks on Fico in connection with a small land purchase --
the property had been restituted and was sold to Fico later a
relatively low price -- seemed flimsy and appear to have hurt
Dzurinda's, not Fico's, ratings. End Comment.) In response
to the Ambassador's question about media reports late last
year on opposition tactics, Dzurinda claimed that it was
never SDKU's intent to launch street demonstrations to
protest the government -- as PM Fico suggested -- but rather
to seeks ways to foster vibrant and open debate. (Comment:
SDKU did, in fact, suggest that peaceful demonstrations
should be part of the opposition toolkit, but quickly dropped
the suggestion in the face of the tepid to negative reaction
from the press and other opposition parties. End comment.)

4.(C) Ambassador Obsitnik inquired about recent government
claims of fraud and malfeasance in connection with the

privatization under Dzurinda's government of SPP, Slovakia's
largest natural gas company. Dzurinda replied that such
charges were "absolute rubbish," adding that he would welcome
any inquiries into the deal. He said that Fico has raised
the issue in retaliation for his move to launch a
no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister in December.
(Comment: Fico recently characterized the privatization the
"largest theft in Slovak history" and said the government
plans to make the SPP inquiry a top priority. End comment.)
For his part, Dzurinda told the Ambassador he intends to
mount another no-confidence vote in the next session of
Parliament. I "am preparing my party and my country for a
tough fight in two years," Dzurinda added. Noting the
polemical nature of some of the recent exchanges between the
government and the opposition -- and the media's portrayal of
the rivalry between Dzurinda and Fico -- Ambassador asked
about personalizing what are serious and substantive policy
disputes. Dzurinda acknowledged that personalizing the
dispute had not been very effective and noted that while he
would play a leading role, he would not be the only face of
the opposition in the months ahead. (Comment: There is
significant disgruntlement among SDKU members that Dzurinda
is not allowing effective politicians within the party due
influence over party tactics and strategy. End comment.)

Fico's Foreign Policy: "Not Normal"
==================================

5.(C) Dzurinda was sharply critical of PM Fico's statements
with respect to U.S. engagement in Iraq, on Missile Defense
and regarding Cuba. "Is this normal?" he asked repeatedly.
Regarding U.S. missile defense plans, which he characterized
as a "benefit" for Slovakia, Dzurinda shared his surprise at
the position taken by the new Polish government. Dzurinda
praised Tusk as a "very good man," but added that he lacked
experience. Dzurinda said he planned to see Tusk during his
January 18 visit to Bratislava and would urge him to take a
more positive -- less transactional -- approach to his
discussions with the U.S. Dzurinda opined that DefMin
Sikorsky was the main force behind the current approach,
calling him "too clever," but also suggested that Tusk felt
the need to show (perhaps a bit naively) that he could manage
the "Russia issue." In the end, Dzurinda said, he was fairly
confident the Poles would come around. He would remind Tusk,
he said, of the importance of partnership with the U.S.
(Note: in an separate encounter on January 17, former FM and
current SDKU MP Eduard Kukan suggested to DCM that Dzurinda
seems to have begun to accept the outcome on Kosovo,
including that the GOS will likely join its EU partners in
recognizing an independent Kosovo within the next several
months. Kukan implied that Dzurinda would take a more
measured approach to the issue than he had last year.)



6. (C) Comment and conclusion. Although Dzurinda's ratings
are down, he remains as feisty as ever. There is no question
that Dzurinda sincerely believes that the U.S. should be
Slovakia's pre-eminent partner. At the same time, drawing
parallels between Fico and Meciar, and trumpeting the role of
the U.S. Ambassador, he suggested that Ambassador Obsitnik
use his bully pulpit to speak out against the government (and
implicitly for him). He has become more realistic about the
current political context. Reflecting again on the challenges
the opposition faces, Dzurinda grabbed a pen and paper and
sketched out the coalition that could have been, had he won
in 2006: SDKU, the Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK),the
Christian Democrats (KDH) and Meciar's HZDS. Dzurinda
asserted that this was a viable group (we are not so sure)
that would have been much better for the country than the
current coalition, but added that such an arrangement was no
longer possible given Fico's popularity. After more than 18
months out of office, it appears that Dzurinda may have
finally let go his hopes for a near-term return to government
via some sort grand coalition. If that it is the case, he
might begin to be a more effective opposition leader. On the
other hand, he is unwilling or unable to hear the message --
sent loudly by the polls and echoed by at least some of his
advisors -- that, at least for now, tactics such as
no-confidence votes lower his credibility and that of the
opposition -- not the Prime Minister's.
OBSITNIK