KYRGYZ OPPOSITION HOLDS JOINT MEETING; GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000071

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ OPPOSITION HOLDS JOINT MEETING; GOVERNMENT
PRESSURE CONTINUES

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Several Kyrgyz opposition parties and civil
society groups held a joint meeting January 14 under the "For
Justice" banner. Ex-Foreign Minister Jekshenkulov moderated
the discussion, and various speakers sharply criticized the
government for the conduct of the December parliamentary
elections. Former Security Council Secretary Niyazov drew
the biggest applause when he said the opposition might have
to resort to "extra-legal" actions because justice could not
be obtained in the courts. Government pressure against
opposition figures continues, apparently prompting former MP
Kubatbek Baibolov and his wife, former Bishkek City Council
Chair Nurjamal Baibolova, to withdraw from politics. End
Summary.

Referendum, Elections Denounced
--------------


2. (SBU) Around 150 opposition party and civil society
representatives held a joint meeting on January 14 to assess
the October constitutional referendum and the December
parliamentary elections and to plan future actions. Former
FM Alikbek Jekshenkulov moderated the discussion under the
banner of his new "For Justice" opposition group. Several
speakers accused President Bakiyev directly of abusing his
power and using administrative resources to ensure a
landslide victory for the pro-presidential Ak Jol party, and
they characterized the referendum and elections as
"undemocratic."


3. (C) Ex-MP and Ata Meken member Temir Sariyev complained
that Ata Meken had been excluded from the new parliament. He
accused the Central Election Commission (CEC) of falsifying
official protocols from Osh city to keep Ata Meken out of
parliament, and he detailed his party's failure to receive a
fair, unbiased decision from the Supreme Court after
contesting the CEC's actions. Ata Meken member and Adilet
Legal Clinic Director Cholpon Jakupova separately called the
courts "highly politicized," and noted the futile attempts to
change the system through mass protests. She earlier
speculated to Poloff that "stricter" measures may be needed,
akin to the actions taken during the March 2005 "revolution."



4. (SBU) Representatives from the Social Democratic Party
(SDPK),which was awarded seats in the new parliament, also
attended, but this show of loyalty to the opposition was not
particularly well received by the audience. SDPK Party MP
and former Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva criticized the
parliamentary elections as "a serious retreat from democracy"
that served only to intensify existing north-south divisions
within the country. New SDPK MP (and former AUCA Vice
President) Bakyt Beshimov also attended, but did not speak.

"People's Parliament" Planned
--------------


5. (SBU) Looking forward at possible next steps, Ar Namys
party leader Emil Aliyev urged that all actions taken be
within the framework of law. Former Security Council
Secretary Miroslav Niyazov, however, received the biggest

SIPDIS
applause from the group when he denounced the current
parliament and government as "illegitimate," and said that
"extra-legal" actions might be necessary because the courts
"lack any independent authority."


6. (SBU) The "For Justice" group announced that it would
create a "people's parliament" within a month, to "discuss
and propose alternative viewpoints on social-political and
economic issues affecting Kyrgyzstan." The group also
announced that a "people's gathering," or "kurultai," would
be held by the spring.

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Opposition Supporters Pressured . . . Again
--------------


7. (C) Jakupova complained to Poloff that the Prosecutor
General's office has reopened previously closed cases against
ex-opposition MP Kubatbek Baibolov and opposition
supporter/businessman Omurbek Abdrahmanov, involving
businesses owned by each. Jakupova feared the government
would "stop at nothing" to silence the opposition. The Ata
Meken party later told the press that the State Committee on
Taxes and Revenues would be inspecting the financial records
of most opposition parties.


8. (C) Separately, Baibolov's wife, Nurjamal, relayed to
Poloff her fears for the safety of her family in connection
with the government's investigations into Ata Meken and her
husband's businesses. The Baibolovs subsequently announced
publicly that they are withdrawing from political activity.
In a January 18 meeting with the Ambassador, Kubatbek
Baibolov confirmed that the couple were leaving politics, his
wife was already in Almaty with their children, and he would
leave the country after "sorting out" his business interests
in the next few months.

A Disunited Opposition
--------------


9. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador January 16, ex-MP and
SDPK member Omurbek Babanov said that opposition groups have
differing goals and are not united. He saw a division
between those interested in step-by-step, systematic change
and those interested only in the fight for power. He
predicted that opposition groups would take action only after
the government makes any serious political mistakes. Steps
taken by the government, including the way it handles the
privatization of Kyrgyzstan's energy sector and rising prices
over the next three months, will determine the direction the
opposition will take, he added. If the government's moves
prove to be unpopular, people will take to the streets, said
Babanov. Babanov also said that the opposition needs new,
younger leaders to lead the charge, not unlike Ukraine's
Yulia Tymoshenko or Georgia's Mikheil Saakishvili.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The "For Justice" meeting produced little agreement
about next steps, other than to hold a "people's parliament."
The opposition itself remains disunited, divided by those
interested in step-by-step changes and those who believe
stronger measures are needed. And government pressure
continues, driving some in the opposition, such as the
Baibolovs, to say they are abandoning the struggle
altogether.
YOVANOVITCH