SCO ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN: CONFERENCE SHORT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BISHKEK 000670

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GEHRENBECK) AND SCA/FO (MOON)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ECON AF KG
SUBJECT: SCO ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN: CONFERENCE SHORT ON
SPECIFICS, LONG ON CRITICISM OF U.S.

REF: 07 BISHKEK 1015

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Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A June 11-12 conference in Kyrgyzstan
examined the possible role of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) in Afghanistan's security and development.
Afghan speakers described a bleak situation in the country
and called for more foreign aid to focus on fighting
terrorism and improving living conditions. Presenters
generally supported SCO involvement in providing humanitarian
assistance, and some suggested that SCO could undertake to
provide training and equipment to the Afghan army and police.
While critical of U.S. and NATO efforts, Russian presenters
rejected the idea of SCO troops fighting alongside or
replacing NATO forces. At the August 2007 SCO summit in
Bishkek, member states called for increased SCO cooperation
with Afghanistan (reftel); while speakers at the conference
echoed that desire for greater cooperation, they provided few
specific ideas about how to accomplish this. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On June 11-12, a conference, "Afghanistan, SCO,
Security and Geopolitics in Central Asia," was held at Lake
Issyk Kul in Kyrgyzstan. The conference was organized by Dr.
Alexander Knyazev, a professor at the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic
University in Bishkek. Knyazev is a vocal opponent of USG
activities in Kyrgyzstan and a strong supporter of increased
SCO influence in the region. The conference was supported by
the Massoud Foundation, the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, and
the Alexander Knyazev Public Foundation. Attending were
approximately twelve Afghan government officials and experts,
ten Russian academics, numerous Central Asian experts, and
several Iranians and Chinese. Only one Kyrgyz government
official attended.

A Role for SCO?
--------------


3. (SBU) The aim of the conference was to examine the role
which the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) could play
in Afghanistan's development. Presenters spoke of the need
to incorporate humanitarian assistance from SCO member states
with existing operations undertaken by NATO, the U.S., and
its coalition of allies. While Afghani presenters welcomed
the possibility of SCO assistance, Russian speakers focused
on blaming the United States for losing the war on terrorism
and neglecting to support the civilian population.


4. (SBU) Presenters agreed that Afghanistan is slowly
deteriorating and viewed SCO assistance as a way to plug some
of the gaps in the humanitarian assistance sector. The only
Kyrgyz government official attending the event, an advisor to
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, gave a short speech
encouraging dialogue that may bring SCO assistance to the
Afghan people. Afghan speakers described a bleak situation
for the population of Afghanistan and called for more foreign
aid to focus on fighting terrorism and improving living
conditions. They also expressed the need for eliminating
opium production and trafficking out of Afghanistan.


5. (SBU) During his presentation, Dr. Ahmad Wali Massoud,
brother of the late Ahmad Shah Massoud and chairman and
founder of the Massoud Foundation, observed that the SCO and
its observers represent nearly half of the world's population
and that Afghanistan would welcome the support from its
neighbors to the north. (Note: The Massoud family are
Tajiks, who have cultural ties to Iran and Tajikistan.)
Engineer Vahidullah Sabaoon, Minister Advisor of Tribal
Affairs to the President of Afghanistan, warned that
instability in one country is guaranteed to affect the rest
of the region. Sabaoon concluded that Central Asia should
play a larger role in the development of Afghanistan and the
SCO, because of its neutrality, could assist in negotiating

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internal conflicts among Afghan factions. (Note: During
Afghanistan's anti-Soviet jihad, Sabaoon was Hezb-e-Islami
Gulbudin's liaison to sympathetic Muslim populations in the
regions of the former Soviet Union bordering Afghanistan.)

Blame the U.S.
--------------


6. (SBU) Dr. Victor Korgun of the Russian Academy of Sciences
criticized the United States government for failing in
Afghanistan but proposed SCO assistance to turn the country
around. Dr. Korgun attacked the U.S. for imposing its
policies, ignoring the ideas of its own allies, and dictating
how Afghanistan should be ruled. He also blamed the U.S. for
failing to address the severe social problems plaguing the
Afghan population. Korgun stated that the U.S. took notice
of the SCO after Uzbekistan forced the closure of its
American airbase in Karshi and quoted former DAS Feigenbaum
as saying that "the SCO makes the blood boil in many
Americans' bodies." Korgun said that for its part in
enhancing the livelihoods of the Afghan people, the SCO could
deploy "brigades of development workers" similar to those
used by USAID. He also proposed the use of SCO assets to
improve Afghanistan's security state by providing training
for the armed forces and police, together with much needed
military equipment. Korgun also stated that
narco-trafficking was a debilitating factor that needed to be
extinguished. Korgun, along with other Russian presenters,
firmly stated that deploying SCO troops to Afghanistan to
fight alongside or replace NATO and U.S. coalition soldiers
was not an option.


8. (U) Dr. Leonid Bodarets, an expert on security issues from
Kyrgyzstan, delivered the most inflammatory critiques of U.S.
efforts in Afghanistan and proposed Russian aid via the SCO
as the most logical solution. Bodarets said that "the U.S.
achieved none of its goals" and the coalition failed on all
fronts. He said that the Pentagon shared "false"
intelligence to its own allies and "released leaders of
bandit forces, like Juma Namangani (of the Islamic Movement
of Uzbekistan)" for no apparent reason. Bodarets said that
the U.S. encourages drug production and "closes its eyes to
narco-trafficking." Turning his focus on Central Asian
leaders, Bodarets claimed that the ruling elite of Central
Asia sold out their nations to the west. He warned that,
once foreign leaders fall out of favor with the U.S.,
Americans tend to end the rule of that allied leader by
"death," using the execution of Saddam Hussein as an example.
Bodarets claimed that, "even here in Kyrgyzstan, the
government had to expel two U.S. diplomats in 2006 for
supporting youth groups in their aim to overthrow the
government." As an alternative, Bodarets offered the
assistance of Russia and the SCO to Afghanistan and
encouraged negotiations with all internal factions, to
include the Taliban.

Dostum: Life not Getting Better Despite Aid
--------------


9. (SBU) Abdul Kadyr Dostum, member of Afghanistan's
parliament and brother to Uzbek warlord General Abdul Rashid
Dostum, told Poloff that although the U.S. has poured
billions of dollars into Afghanistan, life seems to be
getting worse for the rural population. Dostum reminisced
about his trip to the U.S. in the late 1990s, recalling how
life for all Americans was "wonderful" and hoping that his
own country could someday be as prosperous. He warned,
however, that Afghanistan is so incredibly complex and
fragmented that progress will be painfully slow.

Massoud: Broader Coalition Needed within Afghanistan
-------------- --------------


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10. (C) During an aside, Massoud told Poloff that President
Karzai is unable to control the provinces and that many
governors and tribal leaders have little respect for his
authority. Prior to the presidential elections in 2004,
Massoud said that he warned Karzai against ignoring the
numerous fragments of Afghan society and turning his
presidential election into a "win for one individual."
Instead, Massoud suggested that Karzai focus on developing a
coalition government with sufficient representation of all
factions, tribes, and ethnic groups, thus creating a "win for
the nation." Massoud said that Karzai ignored his pleas and
now rules over a defunct government that has little influence
over the regions. He also said that the government has
become corrupt, accusing Karzai's brother, Ahmed Wali, of
running a drug smuggling operation. Massoud said that Karzai
is also seen as a puppet of the west, further eroding the
president's public opinion. When asked about next year's
presidential elections, Massoud could not identify a suitable
candidate but reiterated the importance of an all-inclusive
coalition government.

Comment
--------------


11. (C) The August 2007 SCO summit in Bishkek called for a
greater role for SCO countries in stabilizing Afghanistan
(reftel),and the speakers at this conference also supported
greater cooperation between SCO countries and Afghanistan.
While the presenters suggested areas for greater involvement,
they, once again, provided few specifics on how to accomplish
this. They also did not address issues concerning how any
SCO assistance would be integrated into on-going efforts, or
how SCO would coordinate with NATO or UN authorities. From
the Kyrgyz perspective, Central Asian states could play a
greater role. The Kyrgyz government has suggested that
Kyrgyzstan could participate in re-development projects in
Afghanistan that are initiated by international donors and
economic institutions.
YOVANOVITCH