KYRGYZ POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLINED FOR VISITING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000597

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN - GEHRENBECK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT OUTLINED FOR VISITING
INR ANALYST

REF: BISHKEK 405

BISHKEK 00000597 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Lee Litzenberger for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)




1. (C) Summary: During meetings with a visiting INR analyst,
opposition members, journalists, and former government
officials presented a negative assessment of Kyrgyzstan's
democratic development. Interlocutors highlighted the
increasing control of President Bakiyev and his family over
politics, the economy, and the security services. They also
pointed to the growing role of Kazakhstan, particularly in
banking and the energy sector. Most felt that President
Bakiyev's consolidation of power had brought short-term
political stability, which could allow for reforms to improve
the business climate, but they also worried that this
stability would last only as long as Bakiyev kept his allies
satisfied and the opposition at bay. End Summary.

Stability, for a Price
--------------


2. (C) Meetings held May 15-19 with opposition members,
journalists, and former government officials confirmed for
visiting Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) Analyst
David Abramson that President Bakiyev's consolidation of
power has created short-term stability, but damaged long-term
prospects for successful democratic development.
Commentators believed it was possible that Bakiyev was acting
to control parliament and the government in order to create
the stability necessary to attract investment, particularly
in Kyrgyzstan's dilapidated energy sector.


3. (C) Referring to Kazakh President Nazarbayev's April 2007
public criticism of Kyrgyz political and economic
instability, interlocutors speculated that stability could
lead to greater Kazakh investment. They felt that the Kyrgyz
parliament's recent ratification of the controversial 2001
land-swap agreement with Kazakhstan (reftel) would
demonstrate to the Kazakhs -- and to Nazarbayev -- that
Bakiyev had the domestic political situation under control.


4. (C) Center for Political and Legal Research Director
Tamerlan Ibraimov noted that Kazakh enterprises already had a
large presence in Kyrgyzstan, with additional investment in
construction likely. Opposition Ata Meken party member
Cholpon Jakupova agreed that Kazakh firms played a large role
in the Kyrgyz economy, and she speculated that Kyrgyz-born
Kazakh citizen Alexander Mashkevich would be the main
investor in privatized Kyrgyz electricity firms. Jakupova
also suggested that Nazarbayev himself has been orchestrating
Kyrgyz politics, for example by urging ex-Kyrgyz PM Atambayev
to visit Bakiyev in the hospital in Germany in March in order
to dispel potentially destabilizing rumors about Bakiyev's
health.

Bakiyev's Family Feud
--------------


5. (C) Commentators also focused on the role of the Bakiyev
family in Kyrgyzstan's economy and security services. They
outlined the commonly held views about the Bakiyev family
divisions of interests. They noted that Bakiyev's brother,
Janysh, appears to be in charge of the country's security
apparatus (Janysh has since been appointed Chief of the State
Presidential Security Service),while Bakiyev's son, Maksim,
has numerous business ventures, and their interests
occasionally collide. According to Tamerlan Ibraimov, Janysh
and Maxim have amassed considerable wealth and alliances, and
are inclined to use their respective powers to maintain the
status quo. That spells difficulty for anyone who attempts
to do business here, said Ibraimov.

Parliamentary Factions' Fractions

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6. (C) American University of Central Asia lecturer and
former Institute for Public Policy member Shairbek Jurayev
noted that, although the pro-presidential Ak Jol party
dominated parliament, the legislature was far from
monolithic. He said that tri-partisan sub-groups, or
"fractions," have formed based on geographic, gender, and
other personal ties. Jurayev pointed to three main groups,
apparently headed by then-Ak Jol party leader Elmira
Ibraimova (she has since been appointed Vice Prime Minister),
then-Speaker Madumarov (he has since resigned as Speaker),
and Vice Speaker Cholpon Bayekova, which are able to use
their varying levels of political influence to push forward
certain initiatives. Online news site "24.kg" reporter Asel
Otorbayeva concurred, adding that the presence of
inexperienced politicians in parliament could enable
manipulation by those leading such fractions. Otorbayeva
also singled-out Presidential Chief of Staff Medet Sadyrkulov
as an extra-parliamentary manipulator, one who had already
proven to be a political mastermind.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) These meetings confirmed observations on the possible
reasons behind Bakiyev's consolidation of power, and the
potential impact such moves will have on Kyrgyzstan's
democratic development. The issue of infighting within the
Bakiyev family, and parliament, highlights the fractures on
which Kyrgyzstan's short-term political stability stands.
While negative regarding Bakiyev's tactics, most predicted
that his "controlled stability" would last as long as the
president's allies remained satisfied politically and
economically, and his foes kept disunited and powerless.


8. (U) INR Analyst David Abramson has cleared this cable.

LITZENBERGER