KYRGYZ DEPUTY FM COMMENTS ON PRESIDENT BAKIYEV'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000290

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ DEPUTY FM COMMENTS ON PRESIDENT BAKIYEV'S
HEALTH

REF: A. BISHKEK 283

B. BISHKEK 279

C. BISHKEK 256

BISHKEK 00000290 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Amb. Marie L. Yovanovitch, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This cable contains an Action Request. See para 8
below.


2. (C) Summary. Kyrgyz Deputy FM Ibragimov told Ambassador
and DCM on March 26 that Presidential insiders have told him
nothing serious is wrong with President Bakiyev. Ibragimov
also said he was involved in making flight arrangements
(which te Embassy has confirmed) for the President's return
March 28. At the same time, Ibragimov was puzzled by how
poorly the issue has been handled by the Kyrgyz White House,
speculated that a transition of power at the top would not be
smooth, and repeatedly asked whether the Ambassador and DCM
had reliable information from Germany on the true status of
the President's health. End Summary.


3. (C) Over lunch with Ambassador and DCM on March 26,
Deputy FM Ermek Ibragimov provided his perspective on
President Bakiyev's health. Ibraimov, whose family is well
plugged into the Krygyz political elite, said he and his
close friends are puzzled by the lack of information on the
President's condition. He claimed to have checked with those
he knew who were in the President's inner circle, and they
told him there was "nothing serious" with Bakiyev. Ibragimov
said the President, who is in Germany, had been receiving
paperwork and taking decisions while away. He said the
President's brother Janysh had gone to Germany, as had one
son, but he did not know if they were still there. He did
not know where Bakiyev's other son was.


4. (C) Ibraimov reiterated his earlier claim (Ref A)to the
DCM that he haQeen working on arranging gflight clearance
for the President's return on March 2Q (NotQ Manas Air
Base officials have confirmed to Embassy that a "ramp freeze"
has been scheduled at the airport for 1810-1900 local time
for the President's return on March 28. End Note.) Later,
when discussing whether Bakiyev might be able to attend next
week's NATO EAPC meeting in Bucharest, Ibragimov opined that
it might depend on whether Bakiyev would need a
"rehabilitation" period after his return.


5. (C) Speaking personally, Ibragimov said he was troubled
by the question of transition of power that had arisen due to
the administration's poor handling of the issue, which had
led to widespread speculation. He claimed that both
opposition leader Tekebayev and Parliamentary Speaker
Madamurov (next in line of succession) had been meeting with
various people to begin positioning themselves should there
be a succession struggle. Ibraimov opined that Kyrgyzstan
was not ready to deal with such a situation; it needed more
time to develop institutions; right now everything was tied
to "one person." He worried that a succession struggle would
lead to a north-south split in the country.


6. (C) Regarding succession, he shared what he said was an
important observation aboutthe March 21 Nooruz celebrations
in Bishkek. Usually, he said, the city mayor, who is viewed
as non-political, speaks for 2-3 minutes to kick off the
festivities. This year, Mayor Daniyar Usenov (who is very
ambitious, close to Bakiyev, and may also have presidential
aspirations) got up and handed the microphone to Madamurov,
who spoke for an unprecedented 20 minutes and was speaking as
the first person representative of the country -- a voice
usually preserved for the President.


7. (C) Comment. Ibragimov asked several times whether the
U.S. had information from Germany on the health of the

BISHKEK 00000290 002.4 OF 002


President and kept returning to the subject even after the
conversation had turned elsewhere. Clearly, this is topic
number one with teh Kyrgyz elite and Ibragimov moved back and
forth between his DFM role where he sought to reassure us
that nothing was amiss and the President would return hale
and hearty on March 28 to a less formal role where he
speculated with some concern what a serious illnes or even
death would mean for Kyrgyzstan. He claimed that the German
Ambassador, who just left for an extended leave, had asked
several times before he departed post on March 22, "Are you
sure there is no serious problem with the President's
health?" Ibragimov believed this indicated the German
Ambassador had some details from Germany, which he assumed
were shared with the U.S. He was clearly fishing for
information from us, given his inability to extract details
from his own inside contacts. We found his attempt to try
and read the tea leaves illustrative of how in the dark even
senior GOKG officials are regarding the President's health.
Finally, Ibragimov's admission of his concerns about a
destabilizing succession struggle belies how fragile he sees
his country's political system, and how insecure he is about
Kyrgyzstan's future.


8. (C) Action Request. The Embassy appreciated earlier
information from Embassy Berlin on Bakiyev, and would
appreciate the Department's support in requesting Berlin try
to obtain further details, if possible.

YOVANOVITCH