OPPOSITION: GRIM OUTLOOK FOR KYRGYZSTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000173

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN - GEHRENBECK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION: GRIM OUTLOOK FOR KYRGYZSTAN

REF: A. BISHKEK 113

B. BISHKEK 71

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Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch for Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (C) Summary: Kyrgyz opposition figures continue to
express a grim outlook for the country's immediate future.
Former MP Azimbek Beknazarov sees revolution the only way
forward. He claims to have support for his "revolutionary
committee" and thinks there could be demonstrations in the
spring. Others, such as former Security Council Chair
Miroslav Niyazov, see grounds for discontent, but also see a
divided opposition. Another opposition figure, Nurjumal
Baibolova, believes that the government will manipulate any
protests to give Bakiyev a pretext for early presidential
elections. At this point, despite the dire predictions, the
likelihood of demonstrations is slim. End Summary.

Revving-up the "RevCom"
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2. (C) In a meeting with the Ambassador February 14,
ex-opposition MP Azimbek Beknazarov predicted there could be
demonstrations in the spring, possibly by the third
anniversary of the "tulip revolution" on March 24. He
claimed that his "revolutionary committee" (Ref A) had the
support of more than ten political parties, and, acting
nonchalant about the possibility of bloodshed, Beknazarov
added that "the only way forward for Kyrgyzstan is the
revolutionary way." In the meantime, he said, his committee
would cooperate with other groups, such as the "people's
parliament" being organized by ex-FM Jekshenkulov's "For
Justice" movement. (Comment: Beknazarov was short on
details and credibility. End Comment.)

Splits in Opposition, Splits in Government
--------------


3. (C) Former Security Council Secretary Miroslav Niyazov
told the Ambassador February 15 that endemic corruption, the
penetration of criminal elements in government, and the
Bakiyev family's interference in political and economic
matters, were causing disillusionment and laying the grounds
for revolution. Niyazov thought that demonstrations in the
spring were a possibility, and he worried that "clandestine,
extremist groups" could emerge in reaction to the
government's authoritarian tendencies. Niyazov noted that
while the opposition was currently disunited, he thought that
the opposition groups would eventually coalesce. He
predicted that splits would emerge within the ruling Ak Jol
party, with a serious impact on the parliament. He also said
that the government itself was not united, lambasting his
former colleagues for their inability to work productively.

Conspiracies Abound
--------------


4. (C) Nurjamal Baibolova, former Chair of the Bishkek City
Council and wife of ex-opposition MP Kubatbek Baibolov, told
Emboff recently that she believed the government would
organize "fake protests" in order to precipitate a crisis.
She further claimed that security service (GKNB) sources told
her that the government would encourage religious extremist
elements to participate in such protests. President Bakiyev
would then "settle" the crisis by calling for early
presidential elections. Grouping opposition groups with
religious extremists, she said, would help reduce potential
support to the opposition.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) Despite the dire claims made by those on the outs, at
this point, the likelihood of renewed mass protests remains
slim. Opposition figures articulate many grounds for

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discontent, but the opposition remains disunited, lacking
organization and resources. While the conspiracy theories
may be far-fetched, the government is not above using "fake"
or pocket NGOs, as on February 13, when a number of groups
publicly called for the arrest of opposition
"revolutionaries" like Beknazarov.

YOVANOVITCH