NO MORE COFFEE: NEW KYRGYZ ENERGY MINISTER BACKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001200

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA (GORKOWSKI/DEUTSCH)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018
TAGS: ENRG ECON PREL SOCI PINR KG
SUBJECT: NO MORE COFFEE: NEW KYRGYZ ENERGY MINISTER BACKS
POWER CUTS

REF: A. BISHKEK 1174

B. BISHKEK 593

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Lee Litzenberger, Reason 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) Summary: As concerns mount over winter electricity
supplies, President Bakiyev replaced Energy Minister Saparbek
Balkibekov November 25 with electricity sector veteran Ilias
Davidov. Immediately after assuming his post, Davidov called
for more stringent cuts in power consumption in order to
ensure basic power supplies through the coming winter. An
industry insider cautioned Embassy that Davidov may be more
reliant on Moscow's guidance in major decision-making.
Despite shouldering blame for mismanaging the power sector,
Balkibekov has been returned to his former post as head of
the main power generating company in the Kyrgyz Republic.
The Kyrgyz Republic faces a challenging winter, especially if
a patchwork plan collapses. End Summary.

A New Face in the Hot Seat
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2. (SBU) In his first official act upon returning from a
month's absence in Germany for hip surgery, President
Kurmanbek Bakiyev publicly scolded his cabinet for failing to
take effective steps to conserve electricity and avoid an
energy crisis this winter. Bakiyev subsequently replaced
Saparbek Balkibekov with Ilias Davidov as Minister of
Industry, Energy and Fuel Resources November 25. Davidov,
like Balkibekov, worked at Electric Stations JSC, the state
power generation monopoly, prior to assuming the ministerial
post. An ethnic Tatar who was born in 1941, Davidov began
working as an engineer in 1963 and has been employed in the
Kyrgyz power sector ever since, most recently holding the
deputy director general slot at Electric Stations JSC.
Davidov spent much of his early career working in Osh, the
country's second-largest city. While respected for his
expertise, Davidov was arrested in 2006 for bribing a police
officer, but was later released.

Switching the Lights and Coffee Off
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3. (SBU) Upon assuming his new post, Davidov stressed the
need for more severe electricity cuts in order to ensure
basic power supplies through the coming winter. With the
main Toktogul hydroelectric cascade reservoir now down to
nine billion cubic meters of water (about two-thirds of the
level observed this time last year),energy sector analysts
envision power cuts in some regions lasting up to 20 hours a
day. While parts of Bishkek are suffering from power cuts
lasting several hours, Embassy personnel who have recently
visited Osh have reported cuts there lasting 12-14 hours.
The power cuts, which generate considerable ill will toward
the government, have sparked some spontaneous protests in
some villages. The Hyatt general manager told Emboff
November 27 that power sector workers recently instructed the
Hyatt to shut off kitchen equipment, to include coffee makers.

Keeping Moscow in the Loop
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4. (C) An energy sector insider told Embassy November 25
that Davidov had a more "pro-Russian" attitude, and expected
Moscow to have greater influence in the sector. The insider,
who previously worked with Davidov, described him as very
engaged and vocal in the decision-making process, but also
characterized him as being very "Soviet."

Balkibekov Down, But Not Out

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5. (C) While Bakiyev and others pinned blame on Balkibekov
for the power sector's shortfalls, they ultimately decided
that it was necessary to keep Balkibekov nearby. Within a
day of his November 25 ouster from his ministerial post,
Balkibekov was appointed director general of electric
Stations JSC, the main power generation company in the Kyrgyz
Republic. Although Balkibekov held this post before becoming
minister, it is surprising, given the blame assigned to him
for bungling power supplies and conservation efforts, that he
would be so quickly appointed to such a prominent position
within the energy sector.

Comment
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6. (C) Bakiyev's dramatic firing of Balkibekov may convince
some that he is firmly in charge, but has no effect on the
serious energy shortages the country faces. Nevertheless, it
reveals the extent to which senior Kyrgyz officials are
worried about the impact of winter power cuts, even if they
have no effective plans to make up the power generation
shortfall. Previous years saw sporadic outages, but unless
this winter is extremely mild and/or a patchwork of coverage
works (reftel A),even more serious measures may not be
sufficient to ensure that some electricity is available
through the entire winter.
LITZENBERGER