KYRGYZ OPPOSITION, CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS SIGNAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 000113

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN - GEHRENBECK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ OPPOSITION, CIVIL SOCIETY GROUPS SIGNAL
NEXT STEPS

REF: BISHKEK 71

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Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch for Reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (C) Summary: Kyrgyz opposition leaders continue to
express differing opinions on how best to oppose what they
see as the increasing authoritarianism of the Bakiyev
government. Former MP and Ata Meken party leader Omurbek
Tekebayev said he would focus on party building; public
protests would be difficult to coordinate under current
conditions. Former MP Temir Sariyev is taking "time out;"
analyzing the political situation and determining next steps.
As usual, former PM Atambayev predicts there could be
trouble ahead and is refusing an Ambassadorial appointment to
be on the spot in case he's right. Former MP and Asaba party
leader Azimbek Beknazarov, however, says opposition groups
have exhausted all political and legal means and is forming a
"revolutionary committee" of likeminded parties. How much of
that familiar rhetoric will come to pass depends, once again,
upon the opposition uniting and establishing the leadership
to inspire a disaffected but disgruntled public and amassing
the resources needed to put real pressure on the government.
End Summary.

Frustrated, but Not Giving Up
--------------


2. (C) Ex-opposition MP and Ata Meken party leader Omurbek
Tekebayev told the Ambassador January 30 that, despite being
excluded from parliament in the December elections, his party
would continue to strengthen its base through local council
elections. As a result of the Bakiyev family's apparent
control over industry, parliament, and the courts, said
Tekebayev, the space for political activity has diminished
significantly. He claimed that Bakiyev's son and brother,
Maxim and Janysh, controlled rival groups bent on taking over
as many of Kyrgyzstan's major economic assets as possible,
and that criminal elements have permeated the Kyrgyz White
House, enabling such takeovers.


3. (C) Despite the pessimistic outlook, Tekebayev said that
many remain hopeful that the situation will improve over
time. He said others have approached him to organize mass
protests against the government, but he admitted that it
would be difficult to bring out large crowds without the
support of a unified opposition. He added that, apart from
politics, many are unhappy because of electricity blackouts,
caused primarily by the government's mismanagement of the
energy sector.

Wait and See
--------------


4. (C) In a January 29 meeting with the Ambassador, ex-MP
Temir Sariyev said he was taking a two-month break from
politics to analyze current events. Sariyev predicted that
the government's handling of economic development issues, as
well as civil society's ability to gain traction regarding
the parliamentary election fraud, would help determine the
opposition's next steps. He also said that if opposition
groups decide to hold mass protests, they will not abide by
the new restrictions on where and when public protests can be
held, adding that protestors wouldn't "stop at the square"
anyway.

Trouble Ahead
--------------


5. (C) In a January 31 meeting with the Ambassador, former
Prime Minister Atambayev criticized the consolidation of
power in the president's (read family's) hands, but also
believed that the Kyrgyz people would not allow the present
situation to last for long. He predicted that presidential
elections would be the likely flash point. Atambayev said he

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sensed more trouble could be ahead, and so -- at least for
now -- has turned down an Ambassadorial appointment to Ankara.

A More Radical Approach
--------------


6. (C) Sariyev said that the government's "Soviet-style"
intimidation tactics had scared off some opposition
supporters, but had infuriated others. He claimed that ex-MP
and Asaba party leader Azimbek Beknazarov was becoming "more
radical," and that other disenfranchised ex-government
officials, including former PMs Almaz Atambayev and Felix
Kulov, were joining him.


7. (SBU) Beknazarov told the press January 24 that opposition
groups have exhausted all political and legal means to effect
democratic change. He said that "numerous" likeminded
political parties would establish a "revolutionary committee"
and organize mass protests to call for President Bakiyev's
immediate resignation. He added that he hoped that large
demonstrations would occur on March 24, the third anniversary
of the "tulip revolution."

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Beknazarov's fiery rhetoric notwithstanding, Kyrgyz
opposition leaders seem dispirited and disunited. While the
government's harassment of opposition supporters and civil
society groups has angered many, it has also been effective.
Ex-MP Kubatbek Baibolov has already said that he is leaving
the political arena (reftel),and others may follow him. One
civil society leader told us that Tekebayev is trying to cut
a private deal with the White House: if the government
doesn't touch his property, then he will stay quiet. Another
source told us that Sariyev's "two-month break" from politics
was just a prelude to leaving politics altogether.


9. (C) It is hard to imagine that Tekebayev and Sariyev plan
to withdraw from active politics completely, but the
government's tactics have forced them -- and others in
politics and civil society -- to spend a great deal of time
protecting their personal interests. It is obvious the
pressure continues and opposition party leaders are keeping a
low profile. For now, it is civil society members who are
protesting the government's actions, but when the timing is
right we expect that the political parties will re-enter the
fray. End Comment.

YOVANOVITCH