KYRGYZ LOCAL ELECTIONS FOLLOW A FAMILIAR PATH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BISHKEK 001052

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (GORKOWSKI)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KG
SUBJECT: KYRGYZ LOCAL ELECTIONS FOLLOW A FAMILIAR PATH

REF: A. A. BISHKEK 897

B. B. BISHKEK 970

C. C. 07 BISHKEK 1516

D. D. BISHKEK 1017

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Classified By: Ambassador Tatiana C. Gfoeller for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Based on an Embassy review of available
results from the October 5 local elections, it appears that
pro-presidential Ak Jol loyalists have swept the Bishkek City
Council. The Central Election Commission's refusal to
accredit any international observers meant that Embassy teams
were limited to observing from outside polling stations.
Although Embassy has not reviewed results from races outside
of Bishkek, local NGOs have complained of ballot stuffing,
observer intimidation, bribing voters, and various other
forms of electoral manipulation. These elections were the
last major contest before the 2010 presidential elections,
and, with an apparent Ak Jol sweep of the Bishkek City
Council, have eliminated another possible venue for
mainstream opposition parties to challenge Ak Jol political
dominance. END SUMMARY.

A Bishkek Sweep for Ak Jol?
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2. (C) Over 15,000 candidates competed for 7,600 seats in
local elections held October 5 throughout Kyrgyzstan. While
we have not reviewed results from areas outside of Bishkek,
self-nominated candidates appear to have swept the majority
of Bishkek's 44 local council seats. More than 500 people,
including 105 registered members of political parties,
competed for the 44 slots. President Bakiyev's earlier
announcement that Ak Jol would not submit a party list, in an
effort to avoid politicizing the election (see reftels A and
B),generated the sizable number of nominally unaffiliated
candidates. This step makes it harder to tally the breadth
of Ak Jol's victory. In the case of Bishkek, however, our
review of the victors' slate indicates that most successful
candidates have Ak Jol loyalties. But, it appears that at
least two, minor non-parliamentary parties each gained a
seat.

No Peeking
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3. (C) For the first time in memory, the Central Election
Commission (CEC) refused to accredit any international
observers, turning down requests from the Embassy, the
International Republican Institute, the National Democratic
Institute and the International Foundation for Electoral
Systems. The CEC notified the Embassy three days before the
election that the registration period for foreign observers
had ended the previous day. The CEC shifted blame on to the
Embassy for having requested accreditation, and not an
invitation to be accredited. This logic apparently was also
used in denying accreditation to other foreign observers.

Irregularities on Display
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4. (C) On election day, the Embassy sent out five
observation teams around Bishkek, and two teams to the
neighboring towns of Tokmok and Kara Balta. Due to the lack
of accreditation, our teams could only observe the election
process from outside the polling stations. Nevertheless, our
teams spotted some irregularities. Two Bishkek teams
witnessed ballot boxes being carried away without any retinue
of vigilant observers, and two other teams saw plain clothes
police agents inside the polling stations. Another team
talked to an NGO observer who complained of people outside
the district being allowed to vote. Turnout numbers for Chui
Oblast, where Tokmok and Kara Balta are located, appeared

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excessively high at 71.8%.

Vote Early, Vote Often
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5. (C) At an October 6 press conference, NGO observers
reported wide-scale evidence of fraud. While the fraud
appeared to be somewhat less organized than during the
December parliamentary elections -- there were no wide-scale
power outages just as the ballots were being counted, for
example -- the observers reported numerous instances of
ballot stuffing, bribing and bussing of voters, repeat
voting, and falsification of polling station tabulations.
(See reftel C.) They also reported that the CEC had so far
refused to release the polling station-level tabulation of
votes, as required by the election code. The NGO coalition,
largely trained by the National Democratic Institute,
announced that they would appeal the conduct of the elections
in court.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Despite the late September resignation of the CEC
chair (reftel D) amidst claims of threats from President
Bakiyev's son, the disappearance of an opposition
parliamentarian and the disappearance of another
parliamentarian's son, the October 5 local elections were
relatively peaceful. Although local observers detected
violations in the elections, the CEC and the courts are not
expected to overturn the results. These elections were a
convenient practice run, without foreign observers, before
the next major electoral contest, the 2010 presidential
election. If, as it appears, pro-presidential Ak Jol
loyalists have secured the Bishkek City Council, and given
the minimal opposition presence in the Kyrgyz national
parliament, the opposition now lacks one more prominent venue
from which to challenge Ak Jol dominance of the country.
GFOELLER