MERKEL'S LATIN AMERICA TRIP HIGHLIGHTS DIVIDE...OR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BERLIN 000629

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CU XM GM
SUBJECT: MERKEL'S LATIN AMERICA TRIP HIGHLIGHTS DIVIDE...OR
AT LEAST POSITIONING...IN THE GRAND COALITION

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Jeffrey Rathke for reasons
1.4 (b,d).


1. (C) Summary: Chancellor Merkel's four-country tour of
Latin America got unexpected media attention after Hugo
Chavez compared the Chancellor's CDU to the Nazi party.
Reflecting their differences in other areas, the CDU and
Social Democratic Party (SPD) are promoting different
approaches to Latin America. With the exception of Cuba
policy, there is little in the way of specific differences --
both parties' Latin America agendas are short on political
substance. The Chancellery tells us Merkel will focus
primarily on trade, development, and climate change during
the trip. On Cuba, the CDU/CSU is clear about the release of
political prisoners as an indicator of the regime's
intentions, and the Chancellor's staff expects her to address
human rights in Cuba (a step we have been advocating with the
CDU and in the Chancellery). The SPD, in contrast, is
focused on "dialogue" as the way forward, without clear words
on human rights. The differences between the CDU and SPD,
both real (Cuba) and nebulous (most else) reflect the
increasingly fractious policy atmosphere in the Grand
Coalition in advance of the 2009 German federal election.
End Summary.

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Merkel Intensifies Focus on Latin America
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2. (SBU) Merkel embarked on her first trip to Latin America
as Chancellor visiting Brazil (May 13-14),Peru (May 15-16),
Colombia (May 17) and Mexico (May 18-19) for meetings with
the respective presidents, civil society and business
representatives. During a background briefing for
journalists, National Security Advisor Christoph Heusgen
stressed that Merkel's main focus will be on economic growth
in the region, as well as investment opportunities for German
companies. Heusgen noted the Chancellery's interest in
intensifying strategic relations with Brazil and Mexico.
Heusgen cited these countries' new influence in international
politics, which, he said, allows them to take more of a
leadership role in addressing global issues such as climate
change, trade, and UN Security Council reform. In Peru --
last visited by a German Chancellor thirty years ago --
Merkel will attend the EU-Latin America summit and deliver a
keynote speech on combating poverty and promoting social
cohesion. Heusgen pointed out that she will be the first
German Chancellor ever to visit Colombia, thus signaling
support for its "dynamic," reform-oriented policy. He added
that counternarcotics will be a major topic in the
Chancellor's talks with President Uribe.


3. (C) In his press briefing, NSA Heusgen also noted an
increased German interest in Latin America resulting from
negative developments such as "left-wing populism." He also
described the significant divide between rich and poor,
despite positive economic performance, as a challenge for the
future. Bertil Wenger, foreign policy advisor at the
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) headquarters, who
accompanied CDU/Christian Social Union (CSU) caucus leader
Volker Kauder during a recent trip to Brazil and Mexico, told
PolOffs that for the CDU, "globalization with a human face"
was an important aspect in their talks with Latin American
officials.


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CDU Calls for Joint EU-Latin America Partnership
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4. (U) During a May 8 conference on Latin America strategy
hosted by the CDU/CSU Bundestag caucus, Merkel stressed that
Germany and Europe should "rush" to intensify relations with

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Latin America since many Asian countries, and China in
particular, have already done so. Acknowledging that strong
economic development is not possible unless questions of
social justice are addressed, the CDU/CSU strategy focuses on
securing democratic development as a way to prevent "populist
regimes" from arising. The CDU/CSU strategy paper also holds
out the possibility of an intensified "democracy dialogue"
with the "left-wing populist" governments of the region. The
CDU/CSU caucus complains that German policy towards Latin
America has failed to develop a lasting and forward-leaning
basis and concludes that Germany's main policy goal should be
to focus on Latin America as a partner for exercising global
leadership and responsibility. In addition to trade
promotion and cultural exchange, bilateral relations should
focus on global democracy, sustainable raw material
development and climate protection, according to the strategy
paper.

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SPD Concept for a Strategic Partnership
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5. (SBU) Merkel's trip and the CDU/CSU policy initiative
prompted the SPD to draft its own Latin America strategy.
During a May 5 conference in Berlin, SPD party chairman Kurt
Beck argued for increased dialogue with democratic and
left-wing forces in Latin America, attributing their
increased strength in the region to a "failed neo-liberal
economic model." He commented that capitalism is
insufficiently regulated and has resulted in inequitable
wealth distribution and a new sense of urgency to address
social conditions. According to Beck, expanding the existing
partnership between Latin America and Europe into a
"strategic partnership" would facilitate progress in dealing
with the "challenges" of globalization. Intensified
cooperation should also focus on promoting disarmament,
regulating international financial markets, halting climate
change and combating poverty, Beck said. (Comment: There is
little in the SPD's proposals that goes beyond the party's
boilerplate positions on these topics or relates them to the
Latin American context. End comment.)

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Merkel Remarks about Cuba Expected
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6. (C) It is widely anticipated that Merkel will address Cuba
during her trip -- Post has been encouraging CDU and
Chancellery officials repeatedly in this regard. CDU advisor
Wenger said she would raise Cuba because human rights are a
hallmark of Merkel's approach to foreign policy. The
Chancellery's Latin America Director-equivalent Dominik
Mutter noted that Merkel has several opportunities to raise
Cuba both in public and in her private conversations. He
indicated that she most likely would do so during her stops
in Mexico and Brazil. He could not confirm that Cuba would
be addressed in Merkel's speech at the EU summit, but
indicated that the topic is in the current speech draft. In
an interview published May 12, Merkel said the EU and Germany
watched developments in Cuba closely. She added that the
"first indications of change" would now have to be followed
by "genuine improvements" for the people. "This includes the
release of the considerable number of dissidents who remain
in prison," Merkel said.


7. (U) During a May 9 parliamentary debate, CDU/CSU foreign
policy spokesman Eckart von Klaeden (largely responsible for
the CDU/CSU Latin America strategy document described above)
acknowledged positive developments in Cuba but said Castro,s
recent reforms do not go far enough. He called on the Cuban
regime to release all political prisoners and to allow Cuban
journalist Yoani Sanchez to attend an award ceremony in
Spain.

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Steinmeier: Signs of Change in Cuba
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8. (C) Not to be left out of the public activity on Latin
America, SPD deputy party chairman and Foreign Minister
Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced his own Latin America trip
(to take place during the second half of 2008) and said that
future developments in Cuba will be an important test case
for a new political dialogue between Germany and Latin
America. He described recent initiatives under Raul Castro,
such as the commutation of some death sentences to life
imprisonment, as "small indications of political change" in
Cuba and warned against underestimating these developments.
Steinmeier said these reforms were more than mere gestures
and provided a "chance" for the Cuban people, although Cuba
will not turn into a democracy "overnight." He added that
future developments will depend on whether Cuba is isolated
or whether Europe continues its dialogue with the Cuban
regime. Steinmeier indicated a preference for the latter
path, and said that he sees a similar discussion going on
within the EU. (Comment: Steinmeier did not point out the
Cuban Government's failure to engage on the existing EU offer
of a dialogue that would also include human rights issues.
End comment.)

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Chavez Responds Outrageously to Merkel's Remarks on Venezuela
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9. (U) In an interview published the day before her
departure, Merkel said with regard to Venezuela that no
single country could damage the overall relationship between
the EU and Latin America. "President Chavez does not speak
for Latin America," Merkel said. Chavez responded angrily,
publicly comparing Merkel's CDU to the Nazi party. The
Chancellor did not rise to this bait; instead she had her
spokesman point out simply that Chavez's comments spoke for
themselves.

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Comment
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10. (C) Despite recent attention to Latin America, it does
not feature prominently in German foreign policy. Both major
parties in the coalition offered little on substance to
differentiate themselves. The parties' comments sounded more
like reflections of purely domestic concerns, with the SPD
connecting Latin American concerns to German domestic issues,
such as the perceived negative effects of globalization,
minimum wages, and the divide between rich and poor. The
CDU, on the other hand, focused more on ensuring that
macroeconomic growth results in improved living standards for
average citizens. The disinclination to forge a common
approach demonstrates the growing political divide in Germany
in the run-up to next year,s federal elections.
TIMKEN JR