MOMENTUM FOR UNSC REFORM SUBDUED IN GERMANY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 000209

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV UNSC GM
SUBJECT: MOMENTUM FOR UNSC REFORM SUBDUED IN GERMANY


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Jeffrey Rathke for reasons
1.4(b)/(d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) Although momentum seemed to pick up last year for
German leadership on the issue of UNSC reform, the German
Foreign Ministry does not predict significant forward
momentum on this issue in the coming year, primarily for
reasons to do with the UN meeting calendar and planning
logistics. Nevertheless, German officials say that "Germany
is ready to assume responsibility" should moves toward UNSC
reform lend favor to a German seat at the table. In a
meeting with MFA UN Deputy Head of Division Holger Mahnicke,
PolOff discussed current thinking within the GoG concerning
UNSC reform and plausible scenarios in which Germany might
become a member of the UNSC. Mahnicke maintains that the
German focus is not/not on gaining permanent membership to
the UNSC, but rather on overall reform that better reflects
the realities of global power in today's world. End summary.

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GERMANY LEADS 'OVERARCHING GROUP' FOR REFORM
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2. (C) In the latter half of last year, momentum seemed to
pick up with respect to moves toward UNSC reform and the push
for German membership on the UNSC. According o Holger
Mahnicke, who works in the UN Division f the German Foreign
Ministry, Germany took the ead on organizing a working group
within the UN o discuss possible ways forward with "interim
soltions" to UNSC reform. The issue had been on the ack
burner following the failure of the G-4 refom proposal at
the 2005 World Summit. (Note: Mahicke expressed the view,
which seems representatve of general thinking in the German
government, that the failure of this proposal was due in
relatively equal parts to disagreements about the proposal
among the African block and the active lobbying by the USG
against this proposal. End Note.)


3. (C) Mahnicke said that Germany organized a meeting in
December 2007 of an "Overarching Group" that would field
draft texts on interim solutions to UNSC reform, with the
hope that these could be presented to all member states for
review and discussion. Although he described this group as
"open" to any member state that wished to observe the
proceedings, select member states were invited to the last
meeting. When PolOff asked whether the U.S. was one of those
states, he said he could not confirm whether the U.S. had
been invited, but noted the U.S. did not attend this meeting.
When asked about the relationship between this group and the
"Working Group" that had been previously organized for this
purpose, Mahnicke said that Germany wanted to find a way for
member states to evaluate and discuss reform proposals
without being bound to the full consensus on proposals, which
would be required in the Working Group. The Overarching
Group was developed as a forum where draft proposals could be
explored and then put directly to member states for
consideration.


4. (C) However, Mahnicke said that due to the limited time
left on the current UNGA's calendar, it was unlikely that
drafts of reform proposals would be ready for member states
to consider in the first half of 2008. For that reason, he
speculated that although "pressure (for reform) will
continue", the issue of UNSC reform would likely simmer on
the back burner for the near future.

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REFORM SHOULD REFLECT CURRENT POWER RELATIONSHIP
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5. (C) Mahnicke said that much of Germany's interest in UNSC
membership stems from developments in the early 1990s, when
other countries who raised the issue of reform pointed to
Germany as a possible prospective member. Even now, Mahnicke
reiterated that "Germany is ready to assume responsibility in
the UNSC", but characterized it as an interest developed from
and legitimized from outside the German government. Earlier,
many Germans had been reluctant to view itself as playing a
major role in global security decisions.


6. (C) Even now, Mahnicke said that Germany's goal is
not/not permanent membership, but rather to reform the UNSC
in ways that would better reflect current global power
relations. He recognized concerns about geographic
representation, and the complaint by many within the African
block about too many seats being allocated to EU member
states. He also noted that differences of opinion about UNSC
reform within the EU, notably with Italy, still need

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examination and resolution.


7. (C) When asked what role the German government could
realistically envision the USG playing on the issue of UNSC
reform, Mahnicke said that for the U.S. to "talk publicly
about it" and to continue to raise the issue -- as President
Bush did in his 2007 address to UNGA -- is helpful. As a
caveat, however, he noted German concerns about President
Bush's singling out one country, Japan, in his comments about
UNSC reform. While a variety of options of reform proposals
are on the table, Mahincke said it was not helpful for the
process to single countries out. That aside, Germany
welcomes moves by USG officials to publicly stress the need
for reform.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) In post's view, Germany does not show signs of
emerging as a forceful leader on the issue of UNSC reform.
For ideological reasons, Germany will remain committed to the
reform agenda -- but more because it views itself as a
committed multilateralist and less because it wants to be a
forerunner on global security issues (a fact which has been
evidenced by Germany's decision-making on other foreign
policy issues lately). Moreover, it looks unlikely that UNSC
reform will become a factor in German domestic politics in
the next year. There is some political and public obligation
incumbent on Chancellor Merkel to continue to raise the
issue, since she mentioned it in her speech to UNGA in 2007
and raised it in her meeting with President Bush in October

2007. We can only presume that Chancellor Merkel remains
engaged in dialogue on this issue with fellow G-4 partners,
as well. However, given that it is not likely to be a major
source of domestic political capital, the issue of a German
UNSC seat may continue to languish as Germany heads into
national elections in 2009.
TIMKEN JR