GERMANY: MIXED VIEWS OF THE NEW EASTERN PARTNERSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001692

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV EU SW GM RS
SUBJECT: GERMANY: MIXED VIEWS OF THE NEW EASTERN PARTNERSHIP

REF: A. BERLIN 01567

B. STOCKHOLM 00792

C. WARSAW 01378

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Jeffrey Rathke for reasons:
1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary. German contacts support the EU's new
Eastern Partnership (EP) in part because it offers increased
cooperation with eastern neighbors while falling short of
moving toward membership and in part because it responds to
Russian aggression in Georgia by bringing the eastern
neighbors closer to the west. However, contacts caution that
direct opposition to Russia was not an option. Finally,
German officials remain uncertain whether Belarus would
participate in the EP, but conceded that participation is
likely.

A Delicate But Strong Response to Russia


2. (C) MFA Deputy Division Head for Central Europe Frank
Hartmann told poloff that Foreign Minister Steinmeier wanted
to include Russia somehow in the EP so as to avoid alienating
Moscow. However, Hartmann conceded that German support for
the Swedish-Polish proposal only coalesced after the Russian
invasion in Georgia. COMMENT: This corroborates with
Chancellery contacts last month who emphasized that Germany
only supported the resolution as a punishment to Russia (Ref
A). Although officials appeared willing to talk tough against
Russia in regards to the EP, the same contacts also had
pushed for the return of the EU's Partnership and Cooperation
Agreement negotiations with Russia before strongly supporting
the EP (see Ref B). END COMMENT.

EP Supporting Not Replacing the ENP


3. (C) Chancellery and MFA contacts agreed that EP is a
"tool" to support the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP)
rather than replacing ENP, which the Germans launched during
their EU presidency last year. According to Hartmann,
Neighborhood Policy dominates EU external relations, with two
branches: the east and the south. While countries such as
"France and Italy may focus on the Mediterranean aspect," the
important branch for Germany is the east. Moreover, Hartmann
argued that the EP will strengthen the ENP. Chancellery Desk
Officer for the Caucasus and Central Asia Agapi Nehring was
more dismissive of the EP, questioning whether it would offer
any added value beyond ENP.


4. (C) Hartmann also voiced a note of caution because the
allotted 350 million Euros for the EP is for all six
potential countries over the next seven years. MFA Deputy
Division Head Henning Simon elaborated that the German
financial situation does not lend itself to increasing funds,
contrary to Polish hopes (see Ref C). Moreover, Hartmann and
Nehring agreed that the EP in no way represents the promise
of or even the "potential of future membership." Simon
opined that perhaps some countries--most likely
Ukraine--would be ready to join after a decade or so.
Contacts agreed that the Poles and Swedes have an "overly
optimistic" take on how quickly the six countries will be
ready for visa free travel or a free trade agreement.

Whether Five or Six Will Be in the EP


5. (C) Chancellery and MFA contacts appear to be on the same
page in regards to whether Belarus will be included in the EP
when the incoming Czech EU presidency launches the EP at the
Spring Summit. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and
Ukraine will be invited, and including Belarus is likely but
"not certain at this point." Hartmann said that for Belarus
to be invited, the country needed to enact additional
reforms, especially in regards to media restrictions, and to
avoid "egregious acts," such as arresting more political
opponents. Overall, Hartmann and Chancellery EU Relations
Division Head Petra Sigmund focused on the opportunity to
move Belarus away from Russia. Simon also noted that Belarus
appeared more willing to turn to the EU for help after Russia
offered a loan "with too many stipulations," and now looked
to the EU for support during the financial crisis. Simon was
uncertain of how the EU viewed the loan request.
Koenig