GERMANY PLEASED WITH EULEX LAUNCH; CONCERNED ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001684

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2018
TAGS: PREL MARR MOPS NATO EUN SR GM KS BK MK SI
SUBJECT: GERMANY PLEASED WITH EULEX LAUNCH; CONCERNED ABOUT
BOSNIA, MACEDONIA

REF: A. BERLIN 1475

B. BERLIN 1636

Classified By: Deputy Political Minister Counselor Stan Otto for reason
s: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: PolOff met with German MFA Office Director
for the Western Balkans Jutta Schmitz December 12 to discuss
her thoughts on progress in Serbia and Kosovo, including the
successful launch of the EULEX mission, and concerns about
the latest developments in Macedonia and Bosnia and
Herzegovina. She noted the generally positive trends in
Serbia and Kosovo, and expressed concern about the slow pace
of reform in Macedonia and the lack of progress in Bosnia.
Schmitz also discussed opportunities to liberalize visa
requirements for travelers from all three countries during

2009. END SUMMARY.

EULEX OFF TO A GOOD START; SERBIA MOVING FORWARD
-------------- --------------


2. (C) With the successful launch of EULEX December 9,
Schmitz expressed satisfaction with how the transfer had
occurred, and with how both governments and the "man on the
street" were reacting to the deployment. "No news is good
news," she noted, echoing statements from other Quint member
countries. Schmitz highlighted dramatically-improved
relations with the new Serbian government, noting that Serb
FM Jeremic, on a December 6 visit to Berlin to attend an
Aspen Institute conference, expressed to MFA State Minister
Gernot Erler his hope that "2009 would be Serbia's 'EU
Year.'" In a sign of thawing relations, Berlin's Aspen
Institute head King Mallory reported that, during the
conference, Jeremic and Kosovo FM Skender Hyseni "sought each
other out" and had a private conversation on the margins.


3. (C) Schmitz reported that Jeremic mentioned his hope that
the EU Interim Agreement would come into force in 2009, and
that visa liberalization could also be achieved. Schmitz
emphasized that these goals were "quite ambitious," but added
that it's "important that such ambition exists." She noted
that the government's political hand has strengthened in
Serbia, and that the country's economy is expected to grow in
2009 (despite the global financial crisis) as companies'
faith in Serbia as a good investment opportunity has
increased.


4. (C) In a December 17 meeting with the Charge d'Affaires,
Slovene CdA Alenka Jerak noted that stability and a
Euro-Atlantic perspective in Serbia must remain the focus for

2009. "Much of the Serb political class recognize that
Kosovo is 'lost' and that pre-accession financial aid can
help move Serbia away from its difficult past," she noted.
She also said that problems in Bosnia caused by the
leadership of the Republika Srpska (RS) should also diminish
as the situation in Serbia stabilizes. Belgrade, she
declared, "remains the heart of the Balkans." The Charge
agreed, but pressed the need for Mladic to be turned over to
ICTY.

BOSNIA REMAINS TROUBLESOME
--------------


5. (C) Schmitz expressed deeper concern about the situation
in Bosnia and Herzegovina. While the situation remains
generally stable, "there's not much positive to report from
Sarajevo." Currently, 140 German soldiers are in Bosnia as
part of the ALTHEA EUFOR deployment. While things are quiet
on the ground ("The soldiers do little except play cards"
joked Schmitz),she stressed that it is premature to talk
about ending the mission before the Office of the High
Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina (OHR) is closed.
She agreed that without a EUFOR presence, the OHR's claim to
Bonn powers would lose all credibility. In 2009, Schmitz
said, the international community must focus high-level
interest on Bosnia to quell ethnic tensions. The Croatian
"Inter-Cantonal Council," she said, "is yet another worrisome
example" of an ethnic group working at cross-purposes with
Dayton's intent. RS leader Dodik, she sighed, "is not the
only problem in Bosnia."


6. (C) Janek agreed that the situation in Bosnia is "not
good" and that the three ethnic groups are doing little to
solve national problems. Still, she urged that EU visa
liberalization be offered to Bosnia as well next year if

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other Balkan countries are included. If not, only the
Bosniaks would be left outside the liberalization regime as
most Bosnian Croats and Bosnian Serbs hold dual-citizenship
and will thus be eligible to travel. This sort of
"ghettoisation" would be counter-productive and should be
avoided if at all possible.

MACEDONIA STAGNANT
--------------


7. (C) With elections expected in mid-2009, Schmitz noted,
the chance of seeing political progress in Macedonia seems
slim. She also added that the chance to resolve the name
issue in the months before the next NATO Summit in April
appears even slimmer as a result of the political turmoil in
Greece. Schmitz expressed great dissatisfaction with the
pace of reform in Macedonia and accused the GoM of using the
name dispute as an excuse for the slow pace. When told of
reports that journalists and NGOs in Macedonia are under
increased government pressure and scrutiny, Schmitz promised
to press the German Embassy in Skopje to look into this
matter. Macedonia, she pointed out, "cannot just give lip
service to the Western values of rule of law and civil
society; it also needs to act according to these values."


8. (C) Both Schmitz and Janek noted that Macedonia is the
most deserving recipient for EU visa liberalization among the
Balkan countries. Both also noted that German Interior
Minister Schaeuble has traditionally opposed liberalization;
however Schmitz added that he recently met with an official
Macedonian delegation where he demonstrated a greater
willingness to consider visa liberalization. As Schmitz
stated, this could "help create change in these societies
from below. We now have nearly 20 years during which the
peoples of the Balkans could not travel, could see the rest
of Europe.

GERMAN POLITICAL COOPERATION
--------------


9. (C) With German parliamentary elections scheduled for
September 2009, Schmitz said she expects cooperation between
the Social Democratic Party-led MFA and the Christian
Democratic Union-led Chancellery on Balkans issues to
continue to be excellent. When asked about any visits to the
region that FM Steinmeier may have planned, Schmitz admitted
that any trips could be difficult as Steinmeier is the SPD
Chancellor candidate. She did note, however, that he is
being encouraged to become more heavily engaged in Bosnia,
given the growing problems there, and that an official visit
to that country cannot be precluded.
Koenig