GERMAN VIEWS ON SEPTEMBER 15-16 EU GAERC FOREIGN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BERLIN 001259

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2018
TAGS: EUN PREL PHUM PGOV GM ZL ZI SO SR BO
SUBJECT: GERMAN VIEWS ON SEPTEMBER 15-16 EU GAERC FOREIGN
MINISTERS MEETING

REF: A. STATE 96598

B. STATE 97574

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JEFF RATHKE. REASONS: 1.4 (
B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Germany expects the EU Council on September
15 to agree on creating a small "coordination cell" in
Brussels to help coordinate the existing anti-piracy
contributions of EU members and prepare the way for a
possible future ESDP mission off the coast of Somalia. The
Council is also expected to add names to the Zimbabwe visa
ban list. While Germany supports moving forward with
implementation of the EU's interim agreement with Serbia, it
expects the Dutch and other will continue to oppose that idea
pending full ICTY cooperation. The Council will welcome the
release of political prisoners in Belarus and signal a
willingness to improve relations, but will also highlight
continuing democratic shortfalls and express expectations
that upcoming parliamentary elections be free and fair. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Post provided Ref A talking points to MFA Deputy EU
Correspondent Thomas Schieb September 10. We followed up
with him September 12 to get his reaction and to provide the
additional points on Georgia in ref B. The read-out on the
German reaction to the Georgia points will be provided septel.

Zimbabwe and Somalia


3. (C) Schieb said that the Council will issue conclusions on
both Zimbabwe and Somalia. On Zimbabwe, the EU will add
additional names to the visa ban list of those responsible
for perpetrating or inciting violence in advance and during
the run-off election held this past summer. On Somalia, the
EU will take the "political decision" to create a small
"coordination cell" in Brussels to help coordinate the
existing anti-piracy contributions of EU members and prepare
the way for a possible ESDP mission down the road. Schieb
said technical problems with the translation of some
documents will prevent the Council from taking the formal
decision, which will follow "a few days later."

Serbia


4. (C) Schieb said the Council will discuss whether the EU
should go forward in implementing the interim agreement with
Serbia based on recent positive developments (i.e., the
turn-over of Karadzic). While Germany favors such a move,
Schieb said the Dutch and others would likely continue to
block, arguing that neither the interim agreement nor the
Stability and Association Agreement (SAA) should be
implemented or ratified until Serbia has fully cooperated
with the ICTY, per the Council decision in April. Schieb
said it was not clear whether ICTY Chief Prosecutor Brammertz
would attend the Council meeting to report on his September
10-11 visit to Belgrade, but noted that in any case,
indications were that Brammertz was not ready to certify full
cooperation by Serbia.

Belarus


5. (C) Schieb said the Council will issue conclusions that
acknowledge Belarus for its recent release of all remaining
political prisoners, but which also express concerns about
its continuing shortfalls on human rights and democratic
reforms. The EU will signal that it is prepared to improve
relations and relax the existing sanctions regime, provided
that parliamentary elections at the end of the month are
conducted in a "free and democratic way."


6. (C) Post followed-up with MFA Belarus Desk Officer Stephen
Iro September 12, who confirmed that, contrary to press
reports, Belarus FM Martynov would not be invited to take
part in the September 15 GAERC. Iro thought the Council
would hold out the prospect of easing sanctions and visa
restrictions, provided that the September parliamentary
elections showed an improvement over the previous round, even
if they were not completely "free and fair." Iro opined that
if Belarus were to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the
EU would likely still offer some improvement in relations,
but at a much "lower" level than if Belarus continues to
stand firm against Russian pressure. Iro also thought that
Poland and Lithuania may take a stronger stance against
Belarus and maintain some bilateral sanctions, even if EU
sanctions are ultimately lifted.

BERLIN 00001259 002 OF 002


TIMKEN JR