NSG CHAIRMAN EMPHASIZES NEED FOR CONSENSUS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001049

SIPDIS
STATE FOR ISN RICHARD STRATFORD
STATE FOR ISN/RA TADD KOCA
STATE FOR SCA/RA JASON MCCLESSAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2033
TAGS: PARM PREL IAEA KNNP ENRG ETTD IN GM
SUBJECT: NSG CHAIRMAN EMPHASIZES NEED FOR CONSENSUS ON
INDA-US CIVIL NUCLEAR DEAL

REF: BERLIN 942

Classified By: Economic Minister-Counselor Robert Pollard
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings, Nuclear Suppliers
Group (NSG) Chairman Viktor Elbling and his primary
working-level technical advisor, Joerg Polster, shared their
views on moving forward on the NSG India Specific Exception
Agreement (ISEA). On July 31, Elbling expressed to EMIN
Germany's support for the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation
Initiative (CNCI) and emphasized Germany's goal to remain
"flexible" in facilitating the passage of ISEA by early
September. He added that, although Germany is "quite
optimistic" that the August 1 IAEA BOG will achieve consensus
regarding the ISEA, the NSG ISEA faces a real challenge in
achieving the required 45 member consensus before September

26. Polster said he believes that the ISEA keys to success
are using the first NSG meeting to address primary ISEA
issues and reserving the second for consensus-building among
participants armed with full negotiating authority. He sees
the need for close engagement with skeptical members in the
lead-up to the second meeting. End Summary.


Board of Governors' Meeting: Quite Optimistic
--------------


2. (C) Asked about the prospects of the imminent IAEA vote,
Elbling and Polster expressed their optimism about reaching
consensus at the August 1 Board of Governors (BOG) meeting.
Elbling said that he had not heard voices expressing
opposition to this vote.

"But the NSG is different"
--------------


3. (C) On the NSG ISEA, Elbling several times repeated the
need for consensus in the vote by the 45 member group. He
cautioned that it would be difficult to force any states
"dragging their feet." Noting their interest in being
supportive of US goals, Elbling said that Germany is planning
at least
two NSG meetings in an attempt to reach consensus by early
September. He indicated that Germany sent a letter a week
ago to all NSG members inviting them to the plenary meeting
that would occur on August 21 - 22 and related that the
second meeting date would remain to be determined, but aiming
for the first week of September. (Note: Elbling said that he
had advises the US not to fix the date of the second meeting
yet, adding that "people wouldn't want to feel pressed too
much." End Note.)

Germany pushing for a "clean" NSG ISEA proposal
-------------- --


4. (C) Elbling made it clear that Germany is pushing for a
"clean" NSG ISEA proposal but cautioned that other NSG
members may insist on attaching further non-proliferation
conditions to the ISEA. Elbling said that thus far no NSG
country had come forward with conditions. Yet he cautioned
that it "does not mean that something is not brewing",
adding, "I would not bet on it staying that way". He noted
that with the need for consensus in the 45-member group, he
fully expects some kind of NSG member criticism over the
ISEA, and that would of course impair a favorable decision.


You May Hear Some Noises Intended for the Home Front
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Following his comments on the timing of the two
meetings, Elbling confided, "You may hear some noises
intended for the home front...to make it easier." While he
did not offer details, Elbling suggested that the German
government may raise some challenges intended for domestic
consumption.

Planning mechanics: Views from the working level
-------------- ---


6. (C) During a private meeting with Econoff on July 29,
Polster said that the period before the August 21st NSG

meeting is the time for managing expectations and laying the
groundwork for a second meeting. He views the first meeting
as an opportunity to discuss the primary ISEA issues and
emphasized the second meeting should be aimed at producing
consensus. He envisions the US playing a
critical role engaging skeptical NSG members, specifically
mentioning Austria, Ireland, New Zealand and Switzerland. He
said the US should encourage them to be flexible with respect
to the agreement's content and to plan on attending a second
meeting soon after the first. (Note: Polster is the MFA Desk
Officer for Export Controls. A nuclear physicist, Polster is
deeply engaged in the substance of NSG planning and routinely
accompanies Elbling in NSG meetings with members. End Note.)



7. (C) Polster cautioned against expecting a second meeting
mere days after the first, emphasizing the need for
participants to return home to consult their various
ministries. He does think it would be realistic to expect
members to return within approximately 2-3 weeks to finalize
an agreement. Polster stressed the importance of having
participants in the second meeting arrive with full
negotiating authority from their governments with an aim to
achieve
consensus.
KOENIG