Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BELMOPAN93
2008-02-15 22:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Belmopan
Cable title:  

(C) BELIZE: WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM THE BARROW

Tags:  PGOV PREL EINV EPET PINR BH 
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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBE #0093/01 0462218
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 152218Z FEB 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELMOPAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1094
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0004
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0005
C O N F I D E N T I A L BELMOPAN 000093 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CEN - R. BEAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL EINV EPET PINR BH
SUBJECT: (C) BELIZE: WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM THE BARROW
GORVERNMENT

REF: 07 BELMOPAN 287

Classified By: Charge Leonard A. Hill for reason 1.4(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BELMOPAN 000093

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CEN - R. BEAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL EINV EPET PINR BH
SUBJECT: (C) BELIZE: WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM THE BARROW
GORVERNMENT

REF: 07 BELMOPAN 287

Classified By: Charge Leonard A. Hill for reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Based on his comments to us and his
initial actions and appointments since taking office, we are
hopeful that Prime Minister Dean Barrow and his newly-elected
government will offer more opportunities to advance important
bilateral issues than the previous government. Barrow's
priorities will include tight control over public monies,
populist economic programs and good relations with
neighboring countries, the U.S. and aid donors.
Transformation of the culture of corruption with impunity,
which had become pervasive in recent years, will be a crucial
area where we should try to help. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Our initial assessment is that Belize's change in
government should be generally positive for bilateral
relations. Prime Minister Dean Barrow campaigned on an
anti-corruption "reform agenda" and will seek to run a clean
administration and keep a close eye on his cabinet ministers
to ensure they do not succumb to temptation where public
funds are concerned. Many elected officials and senior
policy advisers, including the Prime Minister, have studied
in the United States and some have lived and worked there.
He values good relations with us and is appreciative of what
the U.S. has done to help Belize. He also wants to keep
Belize on good terms with neighboring countries and aid
donors.

PERSONAL STYLE
--------------


3. (C) Barrow is more outgoing and gregarious than his
predecessor, and in our experience has been accessible and
open to dialogue. He and his party do not seem to be
carrying the same intellectual baggage of trendy third-world
anti-Americanism and a romantic vision of Fidel's Cuba as a
number of senior officials in the previous People's United
Party (PUP) government did. In our experience he has not
always agreed with our positions but has been open hearing
our point of view and engaging in discussion. His years in

the courtroom and the National Assembly have helped him
polish his speaking and debating skills to a high level.


4. (C) In our experience Barrow has followed through on
what he told us, whether about his campaign strategy or
foreign policy priorities. He has been a straightforward,
"what you see is what you get" sort of person. He has a
reputation for being a "hand-on" manager who involves himself
in all aspects of the government. He has told us that he
intends to avoid making the mistake of the previous UDP Prime
Minister, Manuel Esquivel, in not paying enough attention to
ethical transgressions by government officials and cabinet
members.

NOT MUCH BENCH STRENGTH
--------------


5. (C) The "Minister for everything" in the last UDP
government will have a lot on his plate as he now heads his
own administration. Barrow has a large caucus, in the
National Assembly, with a greater than two-thirds majority
that will allow him to amend the Constitution without
opposition support. Nevertheless, his team is relatively
inexperienced, having been out of power for a decade. We
expect that there will be a considerable learning curve as
the new Ministers organize their offices and learn how to
draft legislation and work the machinery of government.


6. (C) Barrow has sought to address the lack of experience
on his front bench by appointing a number of credible Chief
Executive Officers (Deputy Minister equivalents). Although
the CEO system, brought in by the previous government to
replace the British style Permanent Secretary system, has
clearly contributed to politicization of the public service,
Barrow did keep on a number of respected CEOs from the PUP
government. A number of the other CEOs are well known to us
and generally have good reputations for efficiency and
integrity. A solid group of deputies will be essential as
the new Ministers learn their jobs.


7. (C) The new Prime Minister heads a diverse party that is
more united by a desire to replace the PUP than by any
particular ideology. On the positive side this means we will
likely find the UDP government to be pragmatic when it comes
to policy choices. On the negative side it means that there

is little holding the party together now that the Musa
government has gone down to defeat other than Barrow's
leadership. We can expect to see, perhaps fairly early on,
some public disagreements on policy in various areas. Barrow
will try to keep a tight grip on his party, but with the
unifying factor of the PUP out of the picture for now the
tendency to fraction will emerge.

POLICY PRIORITIES -- DOMESTIC
--------------


8. (C) Barrow won election, and a huge majority in the
National Assembly, on the basis of an anti-corruption
platform that captured the mood of the country after repeated
scandals in the PUP government. During the campaign the UDP
revealed a 21 point manifesto detailing the party,s domestic
priorities. The manifesto included a list of specific tax
reductions and spending programs aimed at winning over
specific blocs of voters. The general population was
promised utility rate reductions, reduced mortgage rates, and
the lowering of fuel and GST tax rates. Lower earners were
guaranteed the elimination of income tax, new government
housing programs, and immediate title to government owned
small housing and agricultural lots. Students were assured
that they would receive subsidies for school fees, a national
feeding program for primary schools, and an extensive youth
development program to combat gang violence and provide jobs,
counseling, and sports opportunities.


9. (C) Political reforms: Barrow has called for the
immediate implementation of a reform agenda. The agenda
would provide recall mechanisms for elected officials,
prosecution under an unjust enrichment law, and an empowered
Senate. It is not clear if any unjust enrichment law would
apply retroactively to outgoing government officials who are
accused of siphoning off millions of dollars. Here, the
government would do well to implement tough rules and go
after the most egregious cases from the previous
administration. However, they must be careful to not
politicize the reform agenda. Barrow seemingly plans to
dismiss the senate referendum as a political ploy and
continue with his plan to merely expand the current senate by
one member ) that member being appointed by an NGO.


10. (C) On the downside, Barrow's election promises and the
aspirations of his caucus members may not be economically
sustainable. The manifesto contains a number of populist
ideas that may in the end prove to be too much for Belize's
small economy to handle. With a sovereign debt default
barely avoided last year and the national debt over 100% GDP,
there won,t be too many spending options. Still, if he
does manage to reduce the "leakage" of government funds into
private hands there will certainly be a lot more available
for infrastructure and jobs creation than there has been in
recent years. That being said, Barrow has to struggle with
the result of the last time his party was in power.


11. (C) The economically prudent policies of the previous
UDP administration led to ten years in opposition. By all
accounts the government balance sheet was much improved by a
UDP administration that paid for their good sense with a loss
at the polls. During this year,s election, the primary
slogan of the rival campaign was still &PUP hire / UDP
fire8. This was a reference to more than a decade earlier
when the UDP government reduced expenditures by eliminating
excess government positions. The electorate tends to have a
&what have you done for me8 attitude that doesn,t easily
defer to broad macroeconomic goals.

POLICY PRIORITIES -- FOREIGN
--------------


12. (C) Barrow has been Foreign Minister and recognizes the
importance of good relations with neighboring countries and
aid donors. His approach to foreign relations has so far
been pragmatic, and we do not see any major shifts in
Belize's foreign policy focus. Caribbean and Central
American issues, including trade, will continue to receive
most of the government's attention and resources. Issues
that are not perceived to have an immediate impact on Belize
will not get as much attention. On the central bilateral
issue with Guatemala, the border dispute, Barrow seems
largely in agreement with his predecessor that the path of
negotiation has gone about as far as it can, and the next
step should be a referendum in both countries asking public
approval for a referral to the International Court of
Justice.



13. (C) Barrow seems to have no particular admiration for
Cuba's leadership or administration, although others in his
caucus, including his new Foreign Minister/Attorney General,
may take a more romantic view of Fidel. Still, we think it
unlikely that Barrow will spurn Cuban doctors or scholarships
for Belizeans, nor will he change longstanding policy on
issues like the UN's annual Cuban embargo resolution.
Regarding relations with Taiwan, he has made it clear
privately to us and publicly that Taiwan has been very
generous to Belize and that he has no inclination to switch
and recognize the People's Republic. He has been quite
upfront in saying that he thinks Belize gets much more from
Taiwan than it would from the PRC.


14. (C) The Musa government took advantage of Venezuelan
largesse wherever possible, joining Petro Caribe and
accepting loans and grants, one of which seemed timed
primarily to buy the February 8 election. While not happy
with the assistance provided to his opponents, Barrow has
struck a conciliatory tone regarding Venezuela, and will
likely take a pragmatic course when deciding what Venezuelan
gifts to accept in future.


15. (C) We expect that Barrow will ask us for law
enforcement assistance in the area of asset recovery, seeking
cooperation to help the GOB recover ill-gotten gains from the
past government. While he will be generally favorable to
improved law enforcement cooperation, he will probably be
reluctant to accede too readily to extradition requests, and
we may continue to face the same sort of Belizean justice
system delays that have plagued the process for years.


16. (C) One area that we will have to watch closely is
policies regarding foreign investment, particularly in the
natural resources sector. Barrow's position on the
retroactive taxation plan for energy producers adopted by the
previous government seemed to be that the government should
tax at even higher levels. This sort of moving the goalposts
will have a chilling effect on energy exploration, almost all
of which is financed by foreign capital.

WHAT CAN WE HOPE TO ACHIEVE?
--------------

17. (C) Prime Minister Barrow's comments to us have been
encouraging so far. If he continues to follow through on the
areas that he indicated were his top priorities, there is a
possibility that we can advance the bilateral agenda further
than was the case under the Musa government. A key area that
we will be watching is Barrow's commitment to weeding out
official corruption, something that will be vital to the
transformation of one of the most dysfunctional aspects of
this society, the culture of corruption with impunity.
Misappropriation, theft and diversion of public funds to
cronies were serious problems of the PUP government and
Barrow has pledged to act to clean up a serious situation.
Better governance in Belize would pay significant dividends
for the economy and for the development of the country,
particularly in improved foreign investment and better
development assistance donor confidence and enthusiasm for
Belize. We look forward to exploring ways to advance this
transformational objective.


18. (C) We believe that Barrow will be open to continued
security and defense cooperation. Programs in place to help
the Belize National Coast Guard, to develop a
counterterrorism capability and to train and equip an
engineering unit for peacekeeping deployments will continue.
We anticipate receiving a formal request for aircraft under
the RAMP program. The PUP government spoke of its desire to
take advantage of the possibilities available to Belize under
the Merida initiative but actually did little that we could
see. We will be meeting with Barrow and key cabinet
ministers the week of February 18 and will raise Merida and
the need for Belize to be more active in the Merida process.


19. (C) Improving law and order, especially in Belize City,
will benefit not only Belize but also improve the safety of
the hundreds of thousands of American tourists who visit
every year. We believe Barrow would welcome efforts to
improve professionalism and efficiency throughout justice
system, from police to prosecutors to the judiciary to the
prison. We see this as a fruitful area of cooperation and
look forward to expanding the efforts we have already started
with recent programs bringing speakers on investigating and
prosecuting sexual assault and on domestic violence.


20. (C) Counter-narcotics cooperation was a sore point with
the previous government. Despite substantial assistance on
our part the police seemed unable or unwilling to mount
serious investigations of major players. Much of the problem
was a perception that higher level players in the Cabinet
were opposed to serious action. Small busts of street
sellers keep the courts full but do little to address a
problem that is not only one of transiting drug shipments to
the U.S. but also one of increasing drug addiction and
related violence in Belize itself. We will be pushing for
better cooperation from the Financial Intelligence Unit, and
for better coordination among the police, Coast Guard and
Defense Force to make effective use of the assets that we
have already provided.


21. (C) In sum, we believe that the new government offers a
number of opportunities to advance the transformational goals
of our Mission Strategic Plan. One key will be the
commitment of the Prime Minister to run a clean government
and to discipline his own people when necessary.

HILL