BELIZE: ELECTION CAMPAIGN CONCLUDES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELMOPAN 000064

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CEN - R. BEAL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI BH
SUBJECT: BELIZE: ELECTION CAMPAIGN CONCLUDES

REFS: (A) BELMOPAN 057, (B) Belmopan 055


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Observers of Belize's election campaign refer
to issues of class and race to predict voting patterns but most
agree that after ten years in power and numerous corruption scandals
it will be difficult for the government to be reelected on February

7. The two major political parties scrambled to register voters,
including some hastily-minted new citizens, in advance of a January
10 registration deadline. As the frenetic pace of campaign spending
nears its end, it is clear that both major parties are buying votes.
Election workers do not appear to be well organized on a national
basis and procedures and rule enforcement will likely vary among the
polling stations. The Commonwealth Secretariat has sent election
observers to Belize, and the Embassy will be fielding observation
teams who will visit most constituencies. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) As four weeks of frantic and sometimes mean-spirited
campaigning draw to a close, Belizeans will go to the polls February

7. Most observers, including us, foresee the opposition United
Democratic Party (UDP) coming to power after 10 years of People's
United Party (PUP) rule. The result will be hard-fought, and in
many constituencies could come down to a handful of votes. The
following are Embassy observations on the campaign and the likely
outcome.

VOTER REGISTRATION
--------------


3. (U) January 10 was the last day for candidates to register
voters. The registration system allowed candidates to move voters
between districts, so parties are able to shift votes from safer
districts to help in more contentious areas. This year, just days
prior to the registration deadline, thousands of immigrants were
sworn in as citizens at ceremonies that usually see only a few dozen
participants. Several sources noted that political parties paid
citizenship and then voter registration fees for the new citizens,
who were bussed directly to the registration offices. New voter
registrants can vote in any district they choose as registration is
not limited by residence. Likewise, candidates have no residence
requirement to live in the districts they represent.

CAMPAIGN SPENDING
--------------


4. (SBU) As the frenetic pace of campaign spending nears its end,
it is clear that both major parties are buying votes. Most spending
is overt and candidates freely admit that "helping" voters directly
drives election strategy. Several candidates interviewed estimate
that on average each candidate will spend from BZ$150,000 - $250,000
(US$75,000 - $125,000) on the campaign, a significant sum
considering that most constituencies average under 6,000 voters.
These estimates do not include money spent by party organizations
and do not reflect the increased availability of government services
in the run up to election day. Individual candidates pay
constituents' medical or electrical bills, buy household goods, and
give cash gifts to voters. Candidates also provide services such as
road grading, sewer construction, and garbage collection. There are
no campaign finance laws and while some candidates complain about
the system, the complaints tend to focus on their opponents' deep
pockets or sharp methods rather than on philosophical problems with
how campaigns are funded here.

ELECTION DAY PROCESS
--------------


5. (U) The last-minute referendum on electing the Senate has added
a confusing element to the campaign (Ref A),particularly since the
UDP has urged supporters to boycott the referendum. The process for
voting involves dipping an index finger into ink for the area
representative vote and then returning to the booth for the
referendum vote and dipping a middle finger in ink of another color,
effectively doubling the amount of time a voter has to spend in the
polling station. The dual votes call for separate ballots, boxes,
and voting lines. The Election and Boundaries Department will
deploy more than 1,500 public officers to 314 polling stations. The
polls open at 7 am and close at 6 pm, a change from pervious
elections (Septel). There are over 150,000 registered voters and
high voter turnout is a tradition likely to be continued February 7.



6. (SBU) Election rules and staff do not appear to be well
organized on a national basis and we expect that procedures and rule
enforcement will vary among the polling stations. For example,
there have been rumors that voters plan to bring cameras or cell
phones into the booth to take pictures of their completed ballot in
order to prove they voted the "right" way and receive payment from a
party representative. According to the head of the Elections
Commission, "the issue has been raised by both political parties as

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a concern. But because it is not a part of our regulation we will
not really stop anyone from taking cell phones in the polling
booths." In response, the opposition leader has drafted a complaint
letter to the Elections Commission and the Prime Minister imploring
them to ban cell phones from voting booths. In addition, the Belize
Election Commission performs vote counts in locations remote from
where the votes are cast. This provides an added complication of
securely transporting ballot boxes.


7. (U) All parties provide poll watchers in an effort to ensure
the integrity of the vote, but there are no organized civil society
groups doing independent election monitoring. The Commonwealth
Secretariat has, at the request of the government, sent election

SIPDIS
observers to Belize but with three teams of observers it will be
difficult to cover a lot of ground. The Embassy will be sending 16
observers to various parts of the country and expects to cover
two-thirds of the constituencies on election day (Septel).

PREDICTIVE FACTORS
--------------


8. (SBU) Observers and candidates often refer to issues of class
and race distinctions to differentiate between the two major
parties. They argue that the PUP represents the economic extremes
of the population, receiving strong support from wealthy families
and the impoverished. In contrast, the UDP appears to draw strength
from professionals and lower-middle and upper-middle class voters.
(COMMENT: If the sample of our locally-engaged staff is
representative, this theory has some validity: education and salary
level are good predictors of party affiliation among our LES. END
COMMENT) There have also been concealed racial undertones with
oblique references to electing the first "black" Prime Minister (UDP
leader Dean Barrow) or the fact that the UDP is primarily the party
of the Creole population. Many claim that new immigrant families --
the vast majority of whom are Spanish speakers from neighboring
Central American countries -- primarily support the PUP, due to land
grants, expedited citizenship, and cash payments provided by the
incumbent party.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) Most observers believe that the opposition UDP will win
the election. The PUP, by their own admission, are fighting against
voter fatigue with a party in power for ten years. The current
government has also been plagued by multiple financial scandals.
Anti-corruption is the foremost campaign issue for all political
parties in this election. Despite the negatives against it,
however, the PUP appears more organized, has more experienced
candidates, is receiving outside funding and is utilizing the full
power of incumbency in their reelection effort. Several recent
polls show conflicting results and seem unreliable. (REFTEL B) Our
analysis is that it will be closer than many people think but that
Dean Barrow and the UDP will form Belize's next government. END
COMMENT.

HILL