BELIZE: ELECTION POLLS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT

UNCLAS BELMOPAN 000055

SIPDIS

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y. ADDED PARA MARKINGS
SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CEN - R. BEAL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BH
SUBJECT: BELIZE: ELECTION POLLS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
OUTCOMES

REF: BELMOPAN 08


1. (SBU) Two recent polls suggest significantly different outcomes for
the February 7 national elections in Belize. A survey by SPEAR, the
Society for the Promotion of Education and Research, projects
turnout close to 90%, and gives the opposition United Democratic
Party (UDP) the edge over the ruling People's United Party (PUP).
Over 50% of respondents, however, said that they were undecided or
said that their vote was confidential and did not reveal it to the
pollsters. On the question of "are you better off now than you were
10 years ago," the respondents were almost evenly split. Using
statistical techniques to slice and dice the "undecideds" and
"confidentials," SPEAR concludes that one possible outcome on
election day will be: UDP - 54%, PUP - 37% and third parties - 9%.
(A summary of the poll can be found at www.spear.org.bz.)


2. (SBU) A second poll, conducted by University of Belize Professor
Joseph Iyo and Galen University Professor Marion Cayetano, gives
significantly different results. Their analysis has the PUP
returning to power with 48.9% of the vote, the UDP getting 42.7% and
the remainder of the vote split among third parties. Their results
district-by-district are almost exactly the opposite of the SPEAR
poll, with Iyo/Cayetano showing the PUP leading -- sometimes by
significant margins -- in four of the country's six districts
including the crucial Belize district which has over a third of the
House seats.


3. (SBU) Opinion research is not an exact science in Belize by any
means, and both of these surveys have methodological issues. SPEAR's
relied on randomly-selected telephone landline owners, while the
Iyo/Cayetano poll relied on face-to-face contact in each
constituency. Neither group of respondents may in the end prove to
be completely representative of the electorate. SPEAR does,
however, have a reasonably good reputation for objectivity and has
had some success at calling elections in the past. Indeed, the poll
released prior to the municipal elections in March 2006 correctly
forecast that result. In addition, the SPEAR results seem to track
with the anecdotal evidence we are getting of an electorate that
increasingly thinks 10 years of PUP government has been enough.

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