POSITIVE SIGNS AFTER FIVE MONTHS IN OFFICE?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELMOPAN 000342

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN - ROIS BEAL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BH
SUBJECT: POSITIVE SIGNS AFTER FIVE MONTHS IN OFFICE?

REFTEL: BELMOPAN 314

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The GOB released the national budget on July 14, addressing
several of the 21 pledges made in the pre-election United Democratic
Party (UDP) manifesto. At first glance, the GOB has demonstrated
some measurable progress compared to their manifesto and the public
remains cautiously optimistic. The real test will be how the GOB
addresses some of the more profound issues like weak education,
health care, law enforcement, and judicial systems that have been
plaguing Belize for the last decade. End Summary.

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21 PLEDGES AND THE BUDGET
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2. (SBU) Prior to being elected in a landslide victory in February,
the UDP issued a manifesto - 21 agenda items the party pledged to
take on while in office. Shortly after the election the new
government announced that it would delay the release of the national
budget stating more time was needed to assess its books. The budget
released on July 14 addressed several of the 21 manifesto pledges.



3. (SBU) The budget reflected lower General Sales Tax (GST) flow as
the GOB eliminated the tax on medicines and certain staple food
items to alleviate some pricing pressure on the poor. The GOB also
allocated funding for training for single mothers, and identified
potential funding for the refurbishment of sugar cane roads in the
north. The Prime Minister pointed out that he in principle reached
an agreement to obtain US$12.5 million in financing for a new
Development Finance Corporation to provide small loans to spur
business development. The budget also provided for a National
School Feeding Program at the primary school level and the police
have already completed two summer camps under the Conscious Youth
Development Programme (CYDP) to help eliminate gang violence.

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THE REST IS NOT SO EASY
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4. (SBU) Education. While literacy statistics vary, they hover
around older estimates from a 2000 census of 77%. Reports agree
that the literacy rate in Belize has decreased since the 1980s.
Again statistics vary but indicate that from 45 to 60% of teachers
are trained as certified educators and many of the teachers in the
classroom speak Creole rather than English, the country's official
language. Most of the schools we have visited personally are in
need of major structural repairs and upgrades. Three relatively
small higher education opportunities exist for students wishing to
pursue college degrees forcing most interested students to study
abroad and to look for job opportunities abroad as well.


5. (SBU) The GOB recently pledged to create 5,000 jobs in tourism
but this will be a challenge for two reasons - 1) stay-over visitors
are down 2.1% and cruise ship arrivals declined 19% in the first
quarter of 2008, and 2) the education system in Belize is not doing
a good job training workers. This forces employers to provide
lengthy and expensive training programs or source employees from
overseas to avoid the headache. Thus far, we are unaware of an
attempt to establish a baseline using literacy rates or national
test scores to measure effects of the feeding program or the new
text books issued last year. Nor have we seen evidence of planning
for major improvements including attracting and developing more
qualified teachers, making physical improvements to schools,
facilitating nationwide after-school tutoring and sports programs,
and promoting education as a means of change.


6. (SBU) Health Care. Health care in Belize is basic. Minor
illnesses and injuries can be cared for locally but most expats and
many local Belizeans cross the border to Mexico or go to the U.S.
for treatment of anything more serious than a flu or broken bone. A
severe shortage of qualified doctors and nurses exists in the
country as well as a lack of technical equipment. Cuban Medical
Brigade doctors make up a significant part of the medical
establishment, leaving Belize vulnerable if they were to be
withdrawn. The Universal Health Service hospital (UHS),a
financially failing private hospital, was bailed out by the former
administration by secretly diverting US$10 million from Venezuela
just prior to elections.


7. (SBU) The money diverted to UHS could have been applied to the
National Health Insurance program. This program was launched as
part of the election campaign of the former government without a
financing plan. The current GOB has said it supports the program

BELMOPAN 00000342 002 OF 002


but has placed a moratorium on program expansion because funding
remains an issue. The government is planning system improvements in
health care including more honest procurement, improving training,
sourcing doctors and nurses, and improving infrastructure and
technology, but all of these take time and money.


8. (SBU) Law Enforcement and the Judiciary. The GOB pledged to
create a larger police force. However, the public has little
confidence in the existing police force for several reasons. Cases
of police brutality hit the papers regularly. Only rarely is a
police officer dismissed. Police frequently "lose" their case files
and sometimes even their memories when presenting a case for trial.
One recent example occurred during a high profile murder trial
during which three police officers that made statements they could
identify the murderer all "forgot" their statements when brought
into the court room. The Attorney General (AG) made a recent
statement that the judicial system in Belize is ineffective. Some
of this results from low paid and untrained judges, who have,
according to the AG, no incentive to bring cases to conclusion.


9. (SBU) A larger police force may not be the only solution to
reducing crime. Especially when public trust is low and some
"housecleaning" is needed. The National Security Ministry wants to
polygraph the police force, but the project depends on outside
funding and expertise. The GOB's focus on establishing a DNA lab
may be ill-timed when even the Attorney General believes the
judicial process is largely ineffective and needs substantial
review.

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COMMENT
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10. (SBU) Skyrocketing global food and fuel prices, unforeseen legal
cases left by the former GOB's improper dealings, and a legacy of
corruption and mismanaged finances would be a challenge for any new
government. In the first five months in office, the new GOB has
lived up to about one third of the "simpler" campaign pledges. But
so far, they are only chipping away at the edges of some of the
larger systemic problems in the country's infrastructure. Even the
presentation of the national budget lacked a compelling overall
strategic plan. However, if the government keeps only one pledge of
"no more corruption", the prospects for the country will be
brighter. The real test though will be how the GOB
addresses the more profound issues like weak education, health care,
law enforcement, and judicial systems that have been plaguing Belize
for the last decade. End Comment.

HILL