SERBIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS

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SUBJECT: SERBIAN PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Upcoming Serbian presidential elections pit the incumbent
President Boris Tadic against Radical Party Tomislav Nikolic in a
race that Tadic will likely win in the second round of voting. The
Radicals are running an effective campaign, however, presenting a
kinder, gentler message that may capture support beyond the
Radicals' core. In general, the race has not yet captured the
attention of the electorate. To secure a second term, Tadic must
mobilize his supporters -- greater in number, but traditionally less
likely to vote than his opponent. End Summary.

CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN VIGOROUSLY, PUBLIC YAWNS
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2. (U) Nine candidates are running in Serbia's January 20
presidential elections. All analysts expect incumbent Boris Tadic
(Democratic Party -- DS) and Tomislav Nikolic (Serbian Radical Party
-- SRS) to finish as the top two candidates, with neither garnering
the majority necessary for a first-round win. Pollsters expect
democratic parties will rally around the DS for a Tadic victory in
the February 3 run-off. Strategic Marketing polling, conducted with
the support of the International Republic Institute (IRI),showed
Nikolic beating Tadic 39% to 38% in the first round, and declared
Tadic support at 42% to Nikolic's 34% in the second round, but the
24% who remain undecided or unwilling to declare their candidate
leaves the outcome very uncertain. In recent elections, the SRS has
succeeded in turning out a higher percentage -- as high as 80% -- of
its supporters than the DS and other democratic bloc parties.


3. (U) Despite billboards plastering the capital and candidates'
rallies dominating evening television broadcasts, the public shows
little interest in the elections. According to Srbobran Brankovic,
who heads the Medium-Gallup polling firm, the election is occurring
at a time of "extreme dissatisfaction by the electorate." Recent
questioning on the part of the prime minister about whether Serbia
should proceed with EU integration has "confused" the pro-Europe
bloc of the Brankovic said, raising doubts about whether they should
vote at all, he said. Some Serbian contacts have even commented to
emboffs that they are more interested in U.S. elections than their
own.

RADICALS: SELLING A SOFTER IMAGE; DRAWING CROWDS AND (LIKELY)
VOTERS
--------------


4. (SBU) The Radical Party (SRS) is running a more visible and
active campaign than the Democrats, presenting a softer image that
might appeal to voters beyond the party's core. Under the slogan
"All Heart" Nikolic smiles down from billboards and appears with his
young grandson in TV spots. Nikolic has stopped wearing his party
badge showing Vojislav Seselj, the head of the Radical Party,
currently on trial for war crimes in The Hague. Nikolic told the
press that he decided to forego the badge to attract voters who did
not like Seselj but otherwise supported the party's message. On
January 8, Nikolic assured voters that his election would neither
"topple" the current government nor would his party support waging
war if Kosovo declares independence. Serbia should "cut all
economic ties" with Kosovo, Nikolic said, but "we will not send our
children to war."


5. (SBU) Analysts generally agree that the Radicals' campaign is
effective. Brankovic told poloff January 9 that he had been
"impressed by Nikolic's campaign," calling him the "leader of
political marketing" for his attempts to modulate the Radicals'
image. Marko Blagojevic, a pollster for the Serbian NGO CeSID, told
poloff on January 9 that the Radicals have "done a good job" of
drawing large crowds and running a visible campaign with a softer
campaign message than previous years. IRI representative David Bell
told emboffs, January 9, that the Radicals aimed to pull non-SRS
voters with this softer campaign, without alienating core
supporters. Bell noted that the Radicals were making corruption, a
top concern of Serbians, one of their key themes against Tadic,
tempering their rhetoric about defending Kosovo -- on which they
find little fight among the candidates. Bell said that poll and
focus group participants see Nikolic as the most "honest, authentic"
candidate -- by a large margin, lending credibility to his
anti-corruption message. Nikolic's January 6 statement that war
crime fugitives, including Ratko Mladic, "would not fear arrest" by
Serbia if he were elected president, however, represented his
efforts to keep the nationalist party base satisfied.


6. (SBU) The Radicals are drawing large crowds, and polls show their
voters are the most committed. Ten thousand supporters attended the
largest Nikolic rally of the campaign, in Novi Sad on January 5.
(The sizeable crowd is especially notable since Novi Sad Mayor Maja
Gojkovic did not support or attend the event.) The Radicals also
held early rallies in central Serbia (in Kragujevac on December 24

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and Leskovac on December 29) which also drew large crowds, according
to first-hand reports. The Radicals plan to hold their final rally
on January 15 in Belgrade, and close their campaign in Kosovoska
Mitrovica on January 16. Brankovic said Radical supporters had
"very strong voting discipline," suggesting they would vote in large
numbers. Blagojevic said that according to CeSID's latest polls,
79% of Radical supporters, the highest of any party, were strongly
committed to voting for Nikolic.

TADIC: CONFIDENT OR COMPLACENT?
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7. (U) Though not as remarkable as the Radicals thus far, Tadic has
waged an active, national campaign for support, and has held large
rallies backed by high-budget advertising. Tadic opened his
campaign with a large rally in Novi Sad on December 22, followed by
trips to Kragujevac on December 27 and a planned rally in Nis on
January 12. The DS will hold their final rally in Belgrade on
January 16.


8. (SBU) The Democrats' campaign focuses on general themes rather
than specific issues and steered clear of negative campaign tactics
and messages. Billboards and advertisements feature a solemn,
handsome Tadic with the motto, "For a Strong and Stable Serbia."
Blagojevic told poloff the Democrats' approach was on "high
politics," hoping voters respond to a sweeping message of preserving
respect for Serbia's image in the world. IRI's David Bell told
emboffs that the DS tested more aggressive anti-Nikolic
advertisements in focus groups, linking a Radical victory with a
return to the 90s, but that viewers strongly rejected these "scare
tactics." According to Bell, voters thought Serbia had changed too
much since the 90s to backslide.


9. (SBU) While Nikolic holds the edge on authenticity and
anti-corruption credibility, poll respondents see Tadic as more
effective at attracting foreign investment, projecting a positive
image of Serbia, ensuring Serbia's position in the world, and
preserving stability -- issues that will influence how Serbians will
vote. Bell said that campaign messages which are optimistic about
what the DS can deliver -- European integration and more jobs --
resonated better with voters, but that the DS had not yet integrated
such messages in their campaign. Brankovic agreed, telling poloff
that Tadic needs to be "more convincing" in his ability to show the
electorate that Serbia has a European future.


10. (SBU) Pollsters agree that the complacency of DS supporters is
one of the major challenges for Tadic's reelection bid. Both Bell
and Blagojevic called the DS "overconfident," and suggested that
party members blithely expect that, as minor democratic candidates
depart the field after the first vote, their supporters will turn
out to elect Tadic in second round. Blagojevic said that his
numbers indicated 50% of likely voters expected a Tadic victory,
while only 34% expected Nikolic -- something which could boost
Radical and dampen DS turnout. Blagojevic said that Tadic's
strength was in his "higher ceiling" for votes than Nikolic: while
the Radicals can not reasonably expect more than 1.5 million votes,
the democratic bloc has 1.8 million eligible voters. Blagojevic and
Brankovic's projections show Liberal Democrats (LDP) and G17 Plus
voters will turn out in large numbers for Tadic in the second round.
DSS support is, at this point, uncertain. Each pollster and
several embassy contacts reported that the DS hopes that the EU will
offer a Stabilization and Accession Agreement (SAA) on January 28,
between election rounds, and give Tadic a major boost going into the
February 3rd runoff.


SECOND TIER PARTIES KEEPING THEIR VOTERS ACTIVE
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11. (SBU) Three other parliamentary parties are running candidates
for president: the Liberal Democrats, New Serbia (NS),and the
Socialists (SPS). Polls show the three with the same level of
support, between 6-8% of likely voters. Blagojevic said that the
three were running to remain visible and to keep their voters
involved. Blagojevic expected LDP voters to support Tadic (73%) in
the second round and 51% of Socialists planning to vote for Nikolic.
Brankovic had similar projections. While they are not running a
candidate, the G17 Plus has stayed in touch with its voters, sending
out party mailings endorsing Tadic and urging its supporters to
vote.


12. (U) LDP candidate Cedomir Jovanovic launched an ambitious
campaign on December 21 in Belgrade, drawing 2,000 supporters. The
LDP has two campaigns -- one with Jovanovic and one with other party
officials and celebrity supporters -- which will cover all of Serbia
until final rallies in Novi Sad (January 12),Nis (January 13),and
Belgrade (January 15). NS candidate Velimir Ilic began his campaign
last, but received the endorsements of Prime Minister Kostunica and
key Orthodox Church officials. Ilic began his campaign with the

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visit of monastery Milesevo where Bishop Filaret blessed him. Ilic
will host an Orthodox New Year celebration with a performance by
popular turbo folk singer Ceca, on January 13, in his native Cacak
in central Serbia. SPS candidate Milutin Mrkonjic visited Slobodan
Milosevic's grave, during his campaign, and praised the dictator as
a "human giant." Like Ilic, Mrkonjic visited the Milesevo monastery
and received Bishop Filaret's blessing. The SPS is planning a
Belgrade rally on January 15 and its closing convention in
Kragujavac on January 17.

THIRD TIER PARTIES
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13. (U) The goal of the final four candidates is to spotlight their
parties' platforms. Istvan Pastor, from the Hungarian coalition, is
focusing only on Vojvodina and hoping to attract some non-Hungarian
minority voters. Milanka Karic, running in place of her exiled
husband Bogoljub, is spending more of the Milosevic-era family
fortune staging rallies around Serbia. Two parties -- Jugoslav
Dobricanin's Reformists and Marijan Risticevic's Popular Peasants,
have no real campaigns and receive only government-mandated time on
state television.

COMMENT
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14. (SBU) We expect that Tadic will win this election, but he faces
real and considerable challenges. Events in or concerning Kosovo,
support of coalition partners, and the effectiveness of the highly
compressed election campaign period will influence Election Day
results. Kostunica's ultimatums to the EU on Kosovo clash with
Tadic's pro-Europe platform create dissonance for Kostunica's
supporters (the Democratic Party of Serbia) that might keep them
from the polls entirely. The Radicals are not a convincing
alternative to the status quo, however unsatisfying, but Nikolic's
softer, Seselj-free campaign is their most effective effort yet to
do so. The embassy, through assistance programs to IRI, NDI, and
others, will assist democratic parties to get out the vote, in a big
way. End Comment.

BRUSH