SERBIA: IF THE RADICALS WIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BELGRADE 000452

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/7/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM TAGS
SUBJECT: SERBIA: IF THE RADICALS WIN

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CLASSIFIED BY: Jennifer Brush, DCM, Embassy Belgrade, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) A victory of the war crimes indictee Vojislav
Seselj-led Serbian Radical Party (SRS) in the May 11
parliamentary elections would bring to power a leadership with
no international experience and little common ground on the U.S.
or EU priorities for democratic and economic development in
region. A Radical-led government would fight for Kosovo, fight
corruption, oppose privatization and economic reform, fight
western influence in regional affairs, and establish closer ties
with Russia. Cooperation with the international war crimes
tribunal would stop and, with it, formal progress toward
Serbia's membership in the European Union. Government support
for human rights and other civil society concerns would decline
or disappear. Given the reactionary nature of a Radical
government, public support might be short-lived. Democratic
Party insiders suggest that President Tadic might refuse to
approve a Radical government list and would in short order call
for new elections, with the hope of mobilizing a greater
democratic turnout, in reaction to what they would bill as a
brush with disaster. End Summary.

Populist Platform
--------------


2. (SBU) Serbia's May 11 parliamentary elections are too close
to call, but the most recent and reliable polling data available
to the Embassy puts the Radical Party less than two percentage
points ahead of President Tadic's "For a European Serbia"
coalition. While SRS local leader Tomislav Nikolic (Seselj, the
party leader runs the party in absentia from a jail cell in the
Hague) has invited Prime Minister Kostunica to declare his
party's coalition interests, neither the PM nor any other major
party leader has done so, presumably for fear of losing votes of
those on the political extremes of their respective parties. In
any event, Embassy, and most local political analysts, believes
DSS support would be essential and might be sufficient for SRS
to achieve a parliamentary majority to form a government.


3. (SBU) SRS campaign literature and speeches reflect a
platform that addresses bread-and-butter issues of Serbia's
middle and lower economic strata. The principal planks are:

-- Keeping Kosovo;

-- Eliminating official corruption and crime;

-- Returning to a heavily subsidized economy and reducing
unemployment;

-- Addressing privatization of Serbia's public assets;

-- Making private housing affordable;

-- Developing/prioritizing the agricultural sector through the
development of cooperatives and an agricultural bank;

-- Pension reform;

-- Free healthcare; and

-- Free education.

The SRS platform has remained constant while the party has been
in opposition, and has successfully won the party the largest
share of seats in Parliament, currently with 82 of 250.

A Radical Government
--------------


4. (SBU) In forming a government, the SRS leadership would face
two significant hurdles: a party president leading from a
prison cell and lack of talent and experience. Braca
Grubacic, the editor of the widely-distributed VIP English
language news digest, told poloff on May 5 that staffing the
ministries would be a challenge, with no more than 30 or 40 SRS
members capable of serving in government. Grubacic said that
Seselj still influenced the party, planned to return to Serbia,
and would try to reclaim the party presidency. Seselj, Grubacic
said, would try to block Nikolic from becoming Prime Minister
and insist, instead, that SRS cede the post to Kostunica, in
exchange for DSS support. Nikolic would presumably serve as
Deputy PM.

Even War Criminals Can't Get Along
--------------


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5. (C) In a February meeting with a local OSCE official,
Nikolic himself revealed a strained relationship with Seselj.
Seselj, he said, had tried to take over active leadership of the
party and election campaigning from The Hague, a dangerous step
in Nikolic's opinion, and one that led Nikolic to consider
leaving the party. Nikolic told the OSCE official that "times
had changed" and, he implied, Seselj's time had passed. He said
that Seselj was "a stubborn personality who would never seek
compromise with other political leaders." Novi Sad Mayor Maya
Gojkovic told DCM on two occasions that she had left the
Radicals because Nikolic refused to stand up to Seselj and move
the party out of the shadow of an indicted war criminal.


6. (SBU) Nikolic has publicly stated that the Socialist Party
of Serbia (SPS),the party of former Serbian President and
indicted war criminal Slobodan Milosevic, would not be part of a
ruling coalition with SRS -- despite the SRS having previously
served alongside SPS during the Milosevic era. Nikolic has
stated he expected SRS would be able to "destroy" SPS during the
campaign. SPS, on the other hand, is enjoying its role as
kingmaker with its projected 7%, and at this point is only
saying its natural role is with Kostunica and DSS. Though SPS
President Dacic continues to deny in the press he would agree to
govern with Tadic's coalition, senior DS advisors tell us the
SPS deal is "done" in exchange for DS support for SPS candidacy
for the Socialist International.

Foreign Affairs
--------------


7. (SBU) The SRS lack of experience in foreign affairs would
make them particularly vulnerable to pressure to cede the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the DSS. This would be a
mistake, said Grubacic, since Kostunica's currency with the west
was so low. Kostunica could sink them before they started, he
said.


8. (SBU) A Radical government, Grubacic said, would have one
foreign policy objective: to convince the country and the
international community of Serbia's political and economic
stability. Nikolic has publicly stated that he welcomed
international investment and he told Grubacic that he would
respect pre-existing deals, even with the west. Grubacic
thought that the Radicals would lean hard on Serbia's foreign
currency reserves to "ride out" the first six months and keep
Serbia stable. (More on the Radicals probable economic policy
to follow septel.)


9. (SBU) Grubacic claimed that the Radicals did not really care
about the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU,
which Serbia signed (and the DS celebrated) on April 29, over
the objection of PM Kostunica. In fact, the SRS has hardly
mentioned it during the campaign, and Grubasic said that SRS
Secretary General Vucic had told him that the party did not
believe it would influence voters significantly. Nikolic has
repeatedly said that he did not oppose Serbia's joining the
European Union, insisting that it do so "on Serbia's terms --
i.e., with Kosovo.

No Cooperation with ICTY
--------------


10. (SBU) One of the SRS's main campaign planks was stopping
cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for
Yugoslavia (ICTY),a prerequisite for EU ratification of the SAA
with Serbia. "Nobody in Serbia will be indicted by The Hague
Tribunal... and not one Serb will be handed over to The Hague,"
he told a Moscow daily.

Cooperation with Russia and Select Friends
--------------


11. (SBU) Nikolic insists that an SRS government would not lead
to Serbia's isolation; but has made clear that he seeks to
prioritize strengthening Serbia's relationship with Russia. In
an interview with a Moscow daily, quoted in online news outlets
on May 6, he said, "We plan to develop relations with Serbia's
true friends, among whom Russia holds a crucial place. Serbia
also has to cooperate closely with China, India, Arab and
African countries, as well as with the EU." In the same
interview, Nikolic suggested that, after the elections, Serbia
would address Russian-Serbian political-military cooperation.
Demonstrating the SRS special friendship with Russia, at a May 2
SRS rally, the Russian Ambassador to Serbia appeared onstage, at
Nikolic's side. At the SRS closing campaign rally in Belgrade,
May 6, Heinz-Christian Strache, head of the Austrian Freedom
Party (of Jorge Haider),spoke onstage in support of the Radical
Party.

Radical MOD
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12. (SBU) SRS leadership could stall the most positive element

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of the U.S.-Serbia bilateral relationship- our
political-military relationship. - Serbia's Constitution
reserves to the Presidency oversight of the military, and
Serbia's Chief of Defense (CHOD),General Ponos, reports to
President Tadic. While an SRS MinDef would have the authority
to halt military cooperation and joint exercises, and could
equip and move troops, he would lack authority to deploy them in
battle. Only the CHOD, under presidential order, could send the
armed forces into combat. The general belief is that President
Tadic will insist that General Ponos stay on as CHOD if the SRS
assumes the position of MinDef. This would give the President
some leverage with the SRS MinDef. The bottom line with an SRS
led Ministry of Defense would be stagnation. Cooperation with
NATO would likely cease.

Interior
--------------


13. (SBU) SRS will need this ministry to fulfill its
anti-corruption campaign promises and some analysts variously
suggest Vucic or party Vice President Dragan Todorovic for the
job. DSS will likely try to hold onto this post, although the
incapacitation of current Interior Minister Jocic (paralyzed in
an automobile accident in early 2008) has left a void at the
head of the ministry, now run out of the PM's office.

Other Ministries
--------------


14. (SBU) In addition to the PM's office, Interior, and
Intelligence, DSS may put up a fight for the Kosovo Ministry.
SRS vice presidents and party leaders would likely fill
remaining cabinet seats. The list below is purely speculative,
especially with respect to specific ministries, but might
include:

Milorad Mircic (Agriculture),head of the Vojvodina Radicals,
member of parliament, and Minister for the Diaspora in the 1998
government of Mirko Marijanovic;

Dragan Todorovic (Economy),president of the SRS Executive
Council, engineer, member of parliament, Minister of
Transportation and Communications in the Marijanovic government;

Gordana Pop Lazic (Local Administration),Mayor of Zemun,
Minister of Local Self Government under Marijanovic, former MP,
SRS vice president;

Jorgovanka Tabakovic (Finance),MP, economist;

Nemanja Sarovic (Youth),head of Belgrade SRS branch;

Bozidar Delic (Defense): Retired general (under Milosevic),MP,
member of defense and security committee; and

Zoran Krasic (Justice),lawyer, Seselj defense advisor.

A Chill on Civil Liberties
--------------


15. (C) A Radical government will threaten civil liberties. In
a live debate televised on B92 on May 5, SRS VP and Mayor of
Zemun, Gordana Pop Lazic said that the SRS "will have to fight
the media that supports Euro-integrational forces, because these
forces are destructive, and with the NGOs that are doing the
same thing." NUNS, the independent association of journalists
released a statement in response to Lazic's remarks, noting that
this was "not the first time that the SRS openly frightened
journalists, politicians, and citizens of Serbia who do not
think radically." NUNS recalled that the previous Radical
government introduced legislation authorizing censorship and
"one of the worst media laws ever." The youth NGO No
Alternative to Europe similarly expressed concerns that "when
the Radicals come to power, there will be no freedom of speech."
To the OSCE, Nikolic said, "We don't mind if you internationals
stay, but don't expect government support."

Comment
--------------


16. (C) For nearly eight years, democratic forces have
struggled with reform in Serbia. For the first time, their
opponents (with a boost from Prime Minister Kostunica) may be
able to halt the reform process. If this happens, it will be in
part because of the democrats' failure to end corruption or
contain unemployment. It would also be a result of nationalist
forces exploiting anger over Kosovo's independence. Should the
Radicals come to power, Serbia's reforms will stall.


17. (C) Comment continued: For the U.S., a Radical government
will be a hostile government. While we must remain engaged with
a country that has strong economic and military potential and is
a natural leader in the region, we will need to calibrate any

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response to a Radical government carefully: we must continue to
support those in Serbia who envision a free and democratic
future in Europe while making it very clear to such a government
when its actions are unacceptable. End Comment.
MUNTER