Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BELGRADE273
2008-03-21 14:27:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:  

SERBIA: KOSTUNICA'S CAMPAIGN: ALL KOSOVO, ALL THE TIME

Tags:  KPAO PBTS PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KV SR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO1462
PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN
RUEHLZ RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0273/01 0811427
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 211427Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0067
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBW/AMEMBASSY BELGRADE 0114
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000273 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO PBTS PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: KOSTUNICA'S CAMPAIGN: ALL KOSOVO, ALL THE TIME

REF: BELGRADE 1450 (2007)

BELGRADE 00000273 001.2 OF 002


SUMMARY

-------



UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000273

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO PBTS PGOV PHUM PINR PREL KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: KOSTUNICA'S CAMPAIGN: ALL KOSOVO, ALL THE TIME

REF: BELGRADE 1450 (2007)

BELGRADE 00000273 001.2 OF 002


SUMMARY

--------------




1. (SBU) Prime Minister Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia
will try to keep national attention on Kosovo, rather than
European integration, as part of its electoral strategy for
Serbia's May 11 elections. The DSS campaign will seize on and
prolong stories of unrest in Kosovo, such as the March 17
clashes in Mitrovica, to drown out rivals' messages and portray
them as unpatriotic and weak, while staying ahead of the
Radicals on Kosovo to avoid being absorbed by the much larger,
hard-line party. End Summary.



FRAMING THE DEBATE

--------------




2. (SBU) Prime Minister Kostunica clearly stated his reasons
for calling for the DS-DSS government's dissolution was because
he did not feel it was united on Kosovo. His Democratic Party
of Serbia (DSS) has continued with this message into the
pre-election campaign, asserting that the struggle to oppose
Kosovo independence is the country's top priority. Conversely,
Kostunica told the DSS executive board on March 18, the
Democratic Party (DS) bloc is a coalition of "weak politics and
big propaganda" that cannot deliver on its promise of EU
integration. Kostunica accused Tadic's coalition of "publicly
saying that Kosovo is independent" and "turning away" from
Kosovo. Former DS Prime Minister Zoran Zivkovic told the
Ambassador on March 18 that the DSS has succeeded in "setting
the political agenda" framing Kosovo as "injustice" despite
Kosovo independence having been "clear" for five years.




3. (SBU) Kostunica has repeated the argument that prompted the
collapse of the DS-DSS governing coalition, that Serbia must not
join the EU while the EU intends to deploy its mission to
Kosovo. The Prime Minister told DSS leaders that the party's
top priority was "the struggle for Kosovo and Metohija and
Serbia's integral territory," with EU membership secondary and
even then only with Kosovo as a part of Serbia. Leon Kojen, a

former GOS Kosovo negotiator alongside Kosovo Minister Slobodan
Samardzic (DSS),told poloff on March 20 that Kostunica had
successfully made EU integration and Kosovo "two sides of the
same coin," limiting the DS's ability to make a strong pro-EU
argument during the campaign without being forced to discuss
Kosovo.




4. (SBU) Kostunica has dismissed the DS coalition "propaganda"
that a DSS and/or Radical (SRS) victory would result in
isolation. Kostunica told Serbian daily Politika on March 17
that the DS campaign was "equal to the worst kinds of propaganda
carried out by totalitarian regimes." Kostunica said "the time
of sanctions towards Serbia is in the distant past which will
never repeat itself" and any allusion to such isolation is an
example of his opponents "attempting to introduce fear" into the
electorate.




5. (SBU) The DSS has seized on recent unrest in Mitrovica and
the Presidential authorization to provide defense materiel to
Kosovo as part of its electoral campaign. Upon his return from
Kosovo, Samardzic told daily Vecernje Novosti on March 20 that
he had "strong evidence" including sniper bullets and
photographs that "somebody wanted to create a conflict and a
state of war in Kosovo" on March 17. Samardzic joined other GOS
officials in condemning UNMIK "brutality" and said its operation
in Mitrovica was part of a campaign "to create a new Albanian
state," and give Serbs "a violent lesson." In another sign of
the importance the DSS attaches to Kosovo, Samardzic was
unanimously elected to serve as one of seven DSS vice presidents
at the party's March 19 meeting. The six other positions were
filled in October 2007 (reftel).



POLLSTERS: "UDI WAS CPR"

BELGRADE 00000273 002.2 OF 002



--------------




6. (SBU) Political observers believe that Kosovo is the only
remaining DSS political issue, but the Radicals also gain as
tensions increase. Marko Blagojevic, a respected pollster with
the Center for Free Elections and Democracy (CeSID) told poloff
on March 18 that Kosovo independence revitalized the DSS.
"Kosovo's UDI gave CPR to a dead DSS heart," Blagojevic said,
but perhaps only for the short-term. The DSS risks "losing its
identity" if in ultimately forms a coalition with the Radicals,
he said. Srbobran Brankovic from the Medium Gallup International
polling firm told poloff on March 19 that the DSS's "only topic"
was Kosovo. Although disturbances in Kosovo such as the March
17 clashes in Mitrovica kept Kosovo the preeminent political
issue in the pre-election campaign, Brankovic thought increasing
tensions in Kosovo would more likely benefit Radicals than the
DSS. Srdjan Bogosavljevic of Strategic Marketing polling told
poloff on March 18 that the DS-New Serbia (NS) coalition may get
around 10% of the vote, possibly (again) in a kingmaker role.
As with the other pollsters, he said Kosovo was the "only DSS
issue" and said that if tension in Kosovo continued the DSS
would do well in elections.



IT'S NOT THE ECONOMY, STUPID

--------------




7. (SBU) Kostunica realizes that the economy matters to voters,
but he hopes he can keep the focus on Kosovo. On March 19, he
addressed the Foreign Investment Council (FIC),the main
association of international businesses operating in Serbia.
According to the press, the FIC director said a "stable business
climate" was critical for foreign investors. B92 News reported
that Kostunica agreed; stressing the importance of foreign
investment and economic development, but still tied the issue of
foreign investment to Kosovo. According to his statement,
Kostunica told the business representatives that "an increase in
foreign investments from all countries can only help [Serbia]
protect [its] rights on the international level as guaranteed by
the UN Charter." Similarly, in his March 17 Politika interview,
Kostunica said that the GOS response to countries which
recognized Kosovo has been "political and "does not affect
economic ties."




8. (SBU) Kojen (who worked closely with both Kostunica and
Samardzic during Kosovo negotiations) told poloff on March 20
that the Prime Minister focused solely on political matters and
quickly tired of economic discussions, allowing the G17 and DS
to manage such issues. Kojen said this was part of the DS-DSS
tacit agreement to let Kostunica run Kosovo policy while the
DS/G17 were free to handle everything else. Kojen assessed that
once it was clear that Kosovo policy encompassed economic issues
as well, such as business deals with Moscow, this agreement
broke down and hastened the collapse of the coalition.



COMMENT

--------------




9. (SBU) The DSS will make full use of their only remaining
strategy: casting the election as the struggle for Kosovo
between patriots (them) and traitors (the DS). More delicately,
they must stay in front of the Radicals to maintain the
distinction that, unlike the Radicals, the DSS is able to
represent a modern Serbia to the world and negotiate for EU
integration once Kosovo is secured. Unrest in Kosovo and uproar
over U.S. military assistance to Kosovo help them make their
case on Kosovo to the voters, but now two separate Serb
manifestations (in Belgrade on February 21 and in Mitrovica on
March 17) have spun dangerously out of control. This chaos
threatens to undermine the DSS claim that they can both keep
Kosovo and lead a modern, stable Serbia. The DSS is playing
with fire. End Comment.
MUNTER