SERBIA: PM CALLS TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT; NEW ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 000206

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS KPAO KV XG SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: PM CALLS TO DISSOLVE PARLIAMENT; NEW ELECTIONS
EXPECTED MAY 11

REF: A) BELGRADE 146; B) BELGRADE 143

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Summary

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1. (SBU) Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica recommended on March
8 to dissolve parliament and for new parliamentary elections be
held. He said this was the best solution for ending the ongoing
government gridlock over Serbia's Kosovo policy and its path to
Europe. President Tadic said he would accept the government
decision and when he gets it on Monday he is expected to call
for new elections. Almost all other political parties agreed
that early elections were the right move to end the impasse.
Until the elections, in the aftermath of Kosovo's independence
declaration, Serbia will be straddled with an impotent caretaker
government and a possibly vicious parliamentary campaign which
sets to define national patriots and traitors. The immediate
challenge for the international community will be to address
Serbia's intentions to include Kosovo Serbs in the electorate in
May. End Summary.



PM Kostunica: Disband Government and Call Elections

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2. (U) Serbia should hold new parliamentary elections since the
Serbian government no longer has a united Kosovo policy, Prime
Minister Kostunica said at a March 8 emergency press conference.
According to Kostunica, the government has "failed to maintain
a unified Kosovo policy" because of "contrasting opinions of the
coalition partners regarding the resolution for determining
Serbia's relations with the EU." Kostunica added that the
government did not have the unified will to explicitly state
that Serbia would continue on the path of EU integration only
with Kosovo. Kostunica stressed that it was impossible for the
government to function any more because of the unwillingness of
the members of the government to ask the EU to state its
affirmation for Serbia's borders, including Kosovo. Such a
government, he said, could not last. He said the government
would meet on March 10 to draft a proposal to President Boris
Tadic to dismiss the parliament and schedule new elections for
May 11, in conjunction with already scheduled local elections.
Kostunica explicitly stressed that he had not resigned since
doing so could lead to parliamentary elections being held later
than May 11. Kostunica said that he would resign if coalition
partners did not accept the proposal to dismiss the parliament
at the government's March 10 session.

President Tadic and other Parties Agree

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3. (U) President Boris Tadic, in response to Kostunica's call,
said he agreed new elections were the best way forward, but
argued instead that government gridlock had been caused by
indecision on the pace of Serbia's accession to Europe. "I
believe that the government has no united policy over the
European and economic perspective of Serbia and her citizens. I
am also convinced that we will best defend our Kosovo from
independence precisely with membership in the European Union,"
Tadic said in his official statement on March 8. Tadic said he
would call for new parliamentary elections once he receives the
Government's decision on dissolution. Mladjan Dinkic of G17
Plus, told local media on March 8 that Kostunica's decision was
"honorable and rational." He said G17 Plus would support the
proposal since its ministers did not care to sit in the
government which was leading Serbia to isolation.




4. (U) The Serbian Radical Party said it would not oppose the
dissolution of parliament or new elections. "I will not take
the measures to prevent the government to dissolve the
parliament," Tomislav Nikolic said on March 8, stating that SRS
was ready for new parliamentary elections. SRS Deputy
Aleksandar Vucic went further, highlighting the government
crisis and accusing certain democratic parties of not defending
Serbia. Vucic told RTS that there was a crisis and that "there
are political forces which do not respect territorial integrity
of Serbia, and which are in the government"..."Kostunica's
decision will help resolve the crisis"..."elections are good
solution."

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Stirrings of Possible Election Coalitions

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5. (U) Even before the Prime Minister's announcement, pro EU
democratic parties were beginning to speak about forming a
pro-EU united front in parliamentary elections. Since early
February the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP),led by Cedomir
Jovanovic, has called for pro-EU parties to work together to put
Serbia back on its European path. Tadic told B92 on March 9
that state policy was the dual preservation of Serbia's
integrity and EU integration and encouraged all parties that
want to follow this policy to work together. Tadic clearly
stated, however, that DS would not enter into a pre-election
coalition with the LDP. DS party whip, Nada Kolundzija, said on
March 9, that it was "too early" to say if they will form a
coalition ahead of the May vote.




6. (SBU) New Serbia (NS) leader Velimir Ilic, said on March 9
that the May parliamentary vote "will certainly see coalitions."
Ilic listed the DSS, (with whom he is currently in coalition)
"and possibly the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO)", as potential
partners for his party. (Former Foreign Minister Vuk
Draskovic's SPO failed to cross the five percent threshold in
the January 2007 parliamentary election.) Ilic told B92 that
"any other coalition would be unnatural and dysfunctional" for
his party. Ilic said any coalition his party enters would have
to respect the "wholeness of Serbia." "Europe - yes, but with
respect for Serbia, Serbia to Europe with Kosovo," Ilic told
local media. However, sources in democratic parties recently
told poloffs that they would try to attract Ilic to their fold.


Southern Serbia

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7. (SBU) Ethnic Albanians in Presevo Valley will likely vote,
but again face an uphill battle to win seats. Presevo Valley
Albanians voted in January 2007 parliamentary for the first time
in over a decade, electing one Member of Parliament, Riza
Halimi. Halimi told poloff on March 10 that he expected he
could form another parliamentary list for ethnic Albanians, but
worried that hard-line ethnic Albanians would mount another
boycott against these efforts. Halimi said the parliamentary
election's concurrence with local elections would exacerbate
differences and hard-line parties will try to exploit Halimi's
efforts as collaboration with Belgrade.



Caretaker Government Until Elections

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8. (SBU) According to Kostunica, the government will continue
to function according to the Constitution and the law in a
reduced capacity, institutions will function and the country's
stability will not be jeopardized in anyway. In response to
questions, Kostunica said Serbia is stable and there was no
reason to believe this would impact the economy. However,
Serbia's stock market was down 4% on March 10, the first day of
trading since the announcement. It seems clear that no decisive
initiatives are likely in the next six months.



The Next Test: Serbian Elections in Kosovo

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9. (U) The Serbian government stated its intentions to ensure
that these elections take place also in Kosovo. Minister for
Kosovo Slobodan Samardzic reaffirmed on March 9 that Serbs in
Kosovo, will be able to vote in upcoming elections. "This
democratic act will be done in Kosovo and Metohija just as in
the rest of Serbia, which will demonstrate the fact that Kosovo

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is an inalienable part of Serbia," Samardzic told the media.
Samardzic gave no details as to how the government intended to
conduct the vote in Kosovo. In previous elections, this
responsibility fell to the Ministry of Kosovo's Coordinating
Center (CCK).



Comment

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10. (SBU) Serbia's government had been in gridlock since
February's presidential elections and its dysfunction was
further magnified after Kosovo's declaration of independence.
Nonetheless, Kostunica's willingness to call for early
parliamentary elections surprised most of Serbia's political
establishment, even though they all agree the time had come for
a new parliamentary mandate. Kostunica and Tadic have already
locked horns as they explain the government's collapse:
Kostunica claims disarray on Kosovo policy, Tadic claims
disarray on Europe. This presages the electoral debate:
Kostunica (and Radicals) beating the Kosovo drum, Tadic and the
democratic camp insisting on the European path. The trick now is
whether pro-EU parties can put aside their own internal
squabbling and egos in order to beat the Radicals and possibly
prevent Kostunica's DSS from crossing the 5% parliamentary
threshold.




11. (SBU) Comment (con't): Kostunica, however, may once again
find himself as kingmaker, particularly if Kosovo Serbs
participation in the election becomes an election issue. Real
or perceived ethnic violence involving Serbs in Kosovo would
have a dramatic impact on the election, with Kostunica and the
Radicals eager to exploit such developments. Post expects a
vicious campaign with each side painting one another as a
patriot or traitor to the Kosovo cause. Government will remain
ineffective in the interim with Kostunica remaining as caretaker
PM who will use the time to use the one issue of importance to
him, Kosovo, to weaken his rivals.




12. (SBU) Comment (con't): Democratic leaders will doubtless
call on the EU for help. Some have already weighed in with the
Ambassador for support in "getting something from the EU," be it
an SAA offer, Schengen status, or infrastructure money -
something to demonstrate tangible benefits of EU accession.
This election won't be about us, and our role should be
accordingly discreet. Our interests are best served if the
European path, rather than Kosovo, becomes the center of this
election. End Comment.
MUNTER