SERBIA: GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000185

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV KV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO KOSOVO INDEPENDENCE

Summary
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1. (U) The Serbian government is making good on its promise to
oppose Kosovo independence at every turn. Political leaders and
government officials have taken Serbia's fight into international
arenas, pressing their points with legalistic arguments. The
government is skirmishing diplomatically with countries that
recognize Kosovo, and the politicians will take to the streets along
with the crowds to demonstrate their resolve. While the United
States and Europe may be the current object of ire, the real fight
in Belgrade will be over control of the political agenda. As
tensions in Belgrade subside, we must focus on Serbian government
actions in Kosovo.

The Legal Battle
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2. (U) President Boris Tadic and Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic seek
support in international fora. Tadic invoked the UN Charter and UN
Resolution 1244, as Serbian officials have throughout the Kosovo
status negotiations, in defense of Serbia's claim to territorial
integrity during his February 18 Security Council address. FM
Jeremic added references to the Helsinki Final Act, the Charter of
Paris, and the Charter for European Security in remarks before an
emergency session of the OSCE Permanent Council, February 19. The
MFA told emboffs that Jeremic will also address the Council of
Europe. Jeremic said publicly that Serbia would block Kosovo
membership in international organizations. "As long as Serbia is a
member of the United Nations, Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe, and the Council of Europe..., the
self-proclaimed state of Kosovo will have no access to these
institutions."

Diplomatic Skirmishes
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3. (SBU) The GOS recalled its ambassadors to the United States,
Turkey, Afghanistan, France, and Australia, and publicly announced
it would do the same for ambassadors to all countries that
recognized independent Kosovo. The government made clear it was not
breaking relations. PolDir Boris Stefanovic told poloff that
Serbia's ambassador to the UK had not yet departed Belgrade, and
would not. Stefanovic also said that he expected Ambassador Vujacic
would not return to Washington, having already served nearly six
years. In Belgrade, the MFA told informed the Ambassador that his
access to Serbian officials, and that of ambassadors from other
countries that recognize Kosovo, will be limited. He was informed
that ministers and state secretaries will not receive him. Emboffs
have been told that non-Ambassador access to government officials at
or below assistant minister will be possible, if somewhat
formalistic. (Energy Ministry officials must get their Minister's
approval to meet embassy personnel, but expect approval to be
granted routinely.)

Undiplomatic Escapades
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4. (SBU) Whether driven by emotion, enthusiasm, professional
inexperience, or political calculation, FM Vuk Jeremic crossed the
line of diplomatic propriety. In a speech carried on Serbian Radio
and Television, Jeremic called the administration of President Bush
the "worst [U.S.] administration ever" and said that whoever was to
win the American presidential elections could not "do worse."

No Economic Retaliation for Now
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5. (U) News agency Tanjung reported that Trade Minister Bubalo said
that the "story of Kosovo in not yet finished, so Serbia cannot
impose an economic embargo on part of its territory." The
Government has not announced if it will take any economic measures
against countries that recognize Kosovo independence.

Political Damage Control
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6. (SBU) The fragile government coalition is staggering along.
PolDir Stefanovic, a member Tadic's Democratic Party (DS),said that
the coalition partners are in "constant negotiation" to hold the
coalition together. Were the government to collapse and the
president to call parliamentary elections, Stefanovic said, the DS
would lose dramatically. The DS and its pro-European allies have
caved to the militant DSS and removed non-Kosovo topics from the
coalition's political agenda for a month.

Taking it to the Streets -- in Peaceful Protest
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7. (U) Government and opposition party members are working together

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to organize a public demonstration. On February 21 they will lead a
peaceful march in central Belgrade which will culminate in an
evening church service. The DSS and Radical parties will bus in
thousands of supporters from around the country.

Trying to Maintain Law and Order
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8. (SBU) Emotions are running high, in response to Kosovo's
declaration, and the government is trying to use law enforcement
assets to keep it in check. Government leaders, in the days since
Kosovo declared independence, have urged Serbian citizens to remain
calm and refrain from violence. Even in the midst of the violent
demonstrations on February 17, Serbian police were professional in
working to break up the angry mobs that were attacking targets
around Belgrade. DSS whip Aligrudic assured poloff that the Embassy
would not have security problems in the days ahead.

Comment
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9. (SBU) Belgrade's immediate challenge is to get through the next
few days without allowing political passions to burn out of control.
If all goes well, the organized marches should allow some of the
political pressures of the moment to dissipate. But the
government's response to Kosovo independence is learly calculated
and appears calibrated to keeptensions at a steady simmer. This is
certainly he approach of PM Kostunica who benefits from contiued
attention to Kosovo, but not a return to busness as usual. He must
beware of Radicals and Scialists who may simply go on a rampage.


10. (SU) Embassy believes tensions are likely to lessen n Belgrade
in the next few days. If and when tha happens, we must keep our
eye on the more diffiult flashpoint of Northern Kosovo. The
February19 incident at the ABL, at which Kosovo Serbs burnd UNMIK
checkpoints, is certainly not likely to e the last such
provocation. We note with concer that Ministry of Kosovo
officials, and other seior Serbian leaders, visit Northern Kosovo
everyday. Kosovo Minister Samardzic, commenting on theFebruary 19
events said, "I believe that the meaure is legitimate. It might
not be pleasant, butit is legitimate." Embassy has strongly
protestd this to the Serbian government saying violence is not
legitimate. Over the next few months, we must be vigilant that the
Serbian government's efforts to ignore Kosovo's independence don't
lead to more violence north of Mitrovica. End Comment.