Tadic Caves: DS and DSS Confirm the "Necessity of a Unified

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000166

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SUBJECT: Tadic Caves: DS and DSS Confirm the "Necessity of a Unified
State" But Say Nothing on EU Path

REFS: A) BELGRADE 162 B) BELGRADE 148 C) BELGRADE 145

Summary
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1. (SBU) The Democratic Party (DS) and the Democratic Party of
Serbia (DSS) said on February 12 that their number one priority was
to pursue a unified position protecting the territorial integrity of
Serbia, and government's institutions will work towards fulfilling
this objective. Missing from the government statement was any
reference to how the gridlocked government should move forward
towards the EU. The statement received criticism from all sides of
the political spectrum, including from within the governing
coalition. With no reference to the EU, Serbia's leaders appear to
have put Serbia's path to Europe, a supposed top DS priority in
Tadic's reelection, on deep ice; and thus postponed an eventual
conflict within government. End Summary.

DS-DSS Statement On Unified State
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2. (SBU) Following consultations between President Boris Tadic (DS)
and Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica (DSS) late on February 12, the
government issued a statement confirming "the necessity of pursuing
a unified state and national policy to protect the sovereignty and
territorial integrity of Serbia." The statement reads that due to a
"real, impending threat of an illegal proclamation of unilateral
independence [of Kosovo], ...all state institutions must take the
necessary decision and measures to annul all illegal documents on
unilateral independence."

DSS Reaffirms Its Rejection of the EU Interim Agreement
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3. (U) Despite Monday's statement of unity, the issue which
initially brought the government stalemate - the Interim Agreement
with the EU - remained unaddressed and unresolved. On February 12,
the DSS placed a full page ad in the daily tabloid Kurir stating
that "Kosovo is not for sale" and that "no one has a right to sign
the 'transitional political agreement' between the EU and Serbia".
The ad said the interim political agreement (IPA) was "a deceit that
implies our consent to take away Kosovo." According to the DSS ad,
the IPA shows that the EU prefers Kosovo to Serbia. The DSS
reaffirmed in its ad that it was determined to prevent signing of
the IPA with the EU without parliament's consent.

Next Steps
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4. (SBU) Though actors are still determining the exact choreography
of upcoming events, Embassy contacts have confirmed that Tadic is to
meet with the National Security Council on February 12 and Kostunica
will meet with the government on February 14 to adopt a decision to
annul any acts taken by Kosovo towards independence, the statement
reads. Afterwards, the government will forward its decision to the
Parliament for its consideration and adoption, though all Embassy
sources could only speculate on an exact date for this.
Parliamentary Speaker Oliver Dulic's Foreign Affairs advisor, Lidija
Vasiljevic, told poloff on February 12 that Dulic will meet with the
parliamentary party whips on February 13, and plans are currently
underway to arrange Tadic's inauguration on February 14. A full
meeting of Parliament will most likely take place on either February
17 or 18 to discuss Kosovo, contacts in the DS, G-17 and Liberal
Democratic Party (LDP) confirmed.

DSS Satisfied with Deal
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5. (SBU) DSS Vice President Milos Aligrudic told poloff February 12
that the government appeared to be stable now that "all major
parties" had agreed that opposing an EU mission to Kosovo based on
the Ahtisaari Plan was the most important issue facing Serbia.
Aligrudic said that the DS, DSS and Radicals had all reached an
agreement this week "at the highest levels" to delay any decision by
Serbia on the EU's offered IPA and focus instead on "annulling
Kosovo's declaration of independence." Although he said the DS-DSS
"negotiated" on this, Aligrudic only smiled with satisfaction when
asked what the DSS had given up as part of the agreement.


6. (SBU) Aligrudic said that the DS was in a "difficult position"
because Tadic had said during his reelection campaign that Serbia
would sign the IPA, but now recognized that it could not. He said
that because the Radicals agreed with the DSS on this, the DS "did
not have a political majority" to sign the agreement anyway.
Aligrudic did not seem worried about the IPA expiring, calling the
fact that it remained on the table a "way out" for the EU and Serbia
-- the decision to sign the IPA could be revisited at anytime.
Aligrudic confirmed, however, that the DSS would not rescind its
opposition so long as the EU was considering acting on the basis of
the Ahtisaari Plan. He said that Serbia was not hurt by its

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decision to ignore the IPA because on "important issues" like visa
liberalization, Serbia would "naturally" leave the Schengen
blacklist "on its own."

G-17 Out of the Loop and Frustrated
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7. (SBU) Government coalition partner, G-17 was not consulted by
the DS on the agreement and has remained publicly silent until it
decides its next course of action. Suzana Grubjesic, Chairperson of
the G-17 Plus Parliamentary Group, told poloff on February 12 that
her party members were "frustrated" by Tadic's decision. She said
she had requested a meeting with the President, scheduled for later
that day, to get "clarity" on exactly what the DS agreed to with the
DSS; although she admitted she expected only "political answers."
The DS is the only party without a strategy, she said, explaining
that it is jumping from one tactical decision to another. She said
the G-17 had no intentions of leaving the government "for now,"
noting that the last time the G-17 left government (September 2006)
"nothing changed."

LDP Criticizes the Deal
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8. (SBU) Opposition party LDP continued to be vocal against the
agreement. Member of Parliament and member of LDP presidency Ivan
Andric told poloff on February 12 that the government's statement
was "unacceptable" since the interim political agreement with the
EU, the main reason for the dispute in the ruling coalition, was not
mentioned at all. Andric said people from "across the political
spectrum" could not believe that "Tadic would kill himself
politically for this deal." Andric said that Tadic had been
"completely absorbed by the DSS." He described Tadic's actions as
an example of "Byzantine Politics" in which he "thought, talked, and
acted differently." Andric said the LDP would continue to call for
extraordinary parliamentary elections

Nikolic Welcomes Statement, But Says It Is Too Late
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9. (U) Serbian Radical Party (SRS) leader, Tomislav Nikolic
supported the government statement, but said that this agreement
came too late, Belgrade-based Tanjug news agency reported on
February 12. Nikolic said that the lack of unity among the ruling
coalition and the crisis in the government "practically opened the
door to Kosovo independence". He admonished government for not
performing its expected functions, stating that that the
parliamentary session should have already been held. "In what kind
of country is the main news story that the President and Prime
Minister met and that government and parliamentary sessions are to
be held," he asked rhetorically.

Kosovo the only Issue: Start of a "Patriotic Wave"
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10. (SBU) Parliamentarians from across the democratic spectrum
acknowledged that Serbia's path to the EU was currently off the
political agenda, though they disagreed on how long that would last.
LDP's Andric said that this could be the start of a "total defeat
of Serbia's European future." He said the LDP would continue to
publicly support Serbia's immediate path to the EU, but expected
this would become increasingly difficult, particularly after
Parliament would vote on the government's action plan for Kosovo.
Describing the current situation as a "wag the dog," dilemma, he
said the DS now needed Kosovo in the forefront, or else the
government would fall back into stalemate. Grubjesic (G-17)
acknowledged the EU was off the agenda, and she thought a "patriotic
wave" would now sweep Serbia in which politicians would only discuss
Kosovo. She said she hoped the "wave would not be a tsunami," and
hoped that it would not last longer than mid-March. DS MP Konstatin
Samofalov also admitted to poloff on February 12 that the EU path
was "temporarily off the table" for "short term purposes" but was
optimistic it would be a key issue again "soon."

Comment
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11. (SBU) The backdoor deal between Tadic and Kostunica appears to
have worked once again in Kostunica's favor, placing the Kosovo
issue squarely back on center stage at the expense of Serbia's path
to Europe. It is difficult to see how Tadic will be able to recover
the EU mantle after ceding this round in the fight to the DSS.
There is now obvious frustration not only from the opposition LDP
but also from coalition member G-17. Although the current political
stalemate has now simmered down, it is hard to see how this will not
reappear when --or if--Kosovo is removed from the government agenda.
End Comment.

BRUSH