BELGRADE HOPES FOR SLOW CHANGE IN KOSOVO STATUS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000150

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

E.O.12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KBTS KPAO SR MW KV
SUBJECT: BELGRADE HOPES FOR SLOW CHANGE IN KOSOVO STATUS

Summary
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1. (SBU) Kosovo Ministry officials told visiting State and Defense
Department representatives on January 30 that only a compromise on
Kosovo final status would lead to a durable solution. Assistant
Kosovo Ministers urged "incremental" changes in Kosovo and said a
"surge to independence" would destabilize Serbia and the region. In
a separate meeting, members of NATO's liaison office said that
Serbia will not progress towards a more productive relationship with
NATO in the near term due to Kosovo. End Summary.

Kosovo "in Crisis"
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2. (SBU) Serbian officials said that because of Kosovo's current
"crisis," sudden changes in Kosovo status would lead to instability.
Assistant Ministers for Kosovo Ljubomir Kljakic and Branislava
Alendar told visiting Kosovo Desk Officer, RPM NATO Officer and
Pentagon NATO Policy Officer on January 30 that Kosovo status should
be solved incrementally and through compromise. Kljakic, who
handles the Ministry's relations with civilian and military
international organizations, said that there was "no unity" on
Kosovo because of disagreements "between the State Department and
Serbia...the United States and Russia, and the European Union and
Russia." He said that Kosovo remained in a "social, economic,
ethnic, and moral crisis" and that only a compromise would bring a
"durable solution." Kljakic blamed "international pressure" in
support of a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI) for
"destabilizing the region."

Only Political Problems with International Community
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3. (SBU) Serbian officials said that, while current problems
regarding Kosovo were "political not technical," a "surge" to
independence would destabilize the region. Kljakic said that the
Serbian Army's relations with KFOR were "excellent" and that there
were no homegrown groups in Serbia intended to cause violence. He
called the Tsar Lazar Guard "a hypothetical military." Alendar said
that relations with UNMIK and the EU were also "fine," although she
said that UNMIK officials' "continued support" for Kosovo
independence was "inappropriate." Both Kljakic and Alendar said
that the GOS would not react with force to independence. Alendar
said that the "best defense of Kosovo Serbs [was] defense of
international law."


4. (SBU) The Kosovo Ministry officials had no answer when asked
how, or if, Serbian security services would cooperate with an EU
policing mission to Kosovo. The U.S. visitors urged the Serbian
side to make this a priority, particularly in light of its good
current relations with international organizations.

No Fast Moves
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5. (SBU) Kosovo Ministry Advisor Stanko Blagojevic warned that a
"surge" to independence would destabilize Kosovo. While Blagojevic
said that he was unable to impart details of the GOS plans for
responding to Kosovo independence, he said that government officials
understood Kosovo's status quo was "unsustainable." He said the GOS
planned to "maintain or increase investment in Kosovo Serb
communities." The government "strongly opposed" formation of a
Kosovo army or any armed force," he said. With "incremental" moves,
Blagojevic said, the GOS and the international community could
maintain stability, but he did not offer details. Blagojevic said
that he hoped the United States shared the Serbian Government's view
of existing security agreements like the Kumanovo Agreement that "if
it isn't broken, don't fix it." (In September 2007, Kosovo Ministry
State Secretary Dusan Prorokovic made headlines by saying Kumanovo,
the 1999 agreement between NATO and Yugoslavia which allowed KFOR to
operate in Kosovo, would be void if Kosovo declared independence.)


MLO Inert
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6. (SBU) Officials in NATO's Military Liaison Office (MLO) similarly
urged a "go slow" approach on Serbia's path toward NATO membership.
Italian General Lucio Batta, Chief of the MLO, said that the GOS
differences with the international community over Kosovo made
progress "unrealistic" and that there was "too much at stake" to
push too hard. Other than offering office space within the Defense
Ministry, Batta could not point to specific government efforts to
embrace NATO.


Comment
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BELGRADE 00000150 002 OF 002




7. (SBU) The GOS intention to avoid the Ahtisarri Plan's provision
for a EU presence, and instead handle post-independence Kosovo
policy by seeking to work through UNMIK, UNSCR 1244, and other
existing military agreements, is likely to hit a brick wall.
Finding a mechanism to enable Serbian cooperation with an EU mission
to Kosovo will be a challenge. End Comment.


8. (U) EUR/SCE and RPM have cleared this message.

MUNTER