MECHANISMS FOR THE FALL OF GOVERNMENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000148

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EUN SR XG

SUBJECT: MECHANISMS FOR THE FALL OF GOVERNMENT

REFS: A) BELGRADE 146 B) BELGRADE 143

Summary
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1. (SBU) The anticipated fall of the government of Prime Minister
Vojislav Kostunica's and rise of a successor could follow different
trajectories. Possible scenarios include the resignation of PM
Kostunica, a parliamentary vote of no confidence in the government,
and a government recommendation to the President to dissolve
parliament and call new elections. In all cases, a caretaker
government would oversee the basic functions of government until
election of a new prime minister and installation of the PM's
cabinet. None of these have been tested under Serbia's new
Constitution. In the past, Serbia's political leaders have shown a
willingness to bend the Constitution for the sake of political
expediency. End Summary.

Scenario I: Prime Minister Resigns
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2. (U) The current government would fall if the prime minister
resigns from Office. Under this scenario which would set a new
precedent for Serbia, Kostunica would simultaneously submit his
resignation to the Speaker of Parliament and inform President Tadic.
According to the principal drafter of the Constitution and
University of Belgrade Law Professor, Dragor Hiber, Parliament would
have 30 days to confirm a new government. During this time, the
President will propose a candidate for Prime Minister, based upon
the opinions of parties represented in Parliament. The candidate
for Prime Minister will then present his government program and
proposed ministers to Parliament for consideration. If Parliament
fails to establish a new government, the President must dissolve
Parliament and schedule elections.

Scenario II: Vote of No Confidence
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3. (U) The Constitution empowers Parliament, with the support of at
least 60 deputies, to entertain a vote of no confidence in the
government. A request for a vote submitted, Parliament must discuss
the proposal for the vote of no confidence at its next session, and
no later than five days from submission of the request. Parliament
must discuss and vote on the proposal. A simple majority passes the
proposal and obligates the President to initiate proceedings for the
formation of a new government. As in the case of the PM's
resignation, if the Parliament fails to confirm a new government
within 30 days from voting no confidence, the President must
dissolve the Parliament and schedule parliamentary elections.
Elections must conclude no later than 60 days from the dissolution
of Parliament.

Scenario III: Government Recommendation to Dissolve Parliament
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4. (U) Upon the proposal of the Government, the President may
dissolve Parliament. With the dissolution of Parliament, the
President simultaneously schedules parliamentary elections. The
dissolved Parliament performs only urgent functions "stipulated by
the Law."

Scheduling Elections and Convening New Parliament
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5. (U) The Constitution stipulates that elections must be scheduled
to end no later than 60 days from the day they are called.
Parliament must convene, within 30 days of the certification of
election results, and begin the process of forming a new government.
The installed parliament has 90 days to confirm a government.

A Caretaker Government
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6. (U) A caretaker cabinet governs until Parliament forms a new
government. According to Hiber, the law anticipates that the
ministers empowered at the time the government falls or upon the
dissolution of the Parliament would continue to serve in a caretaker
capacity. An advisor to the prime minister told poloff, however,
that the ministers could change seats. In any event, they would
limit operations to "basic functions" of government. The government
could not propose substantial laws or enter into international
agreements, according to Hiber. A caretaker cabinet governed Serbia
from December 2006, through the January 2007 parliamentary
elections, until the formation of the current coalition in May

2007.

Caretaker Parliament: Legal Status Uncertain
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7. (SBU) MP Meho Omerovic (DS) told poloff that the Law on the
National Assembly (Parliament) defines the functions of Parliament

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during the interim between dissolution and installation of newly
elected deputies. The law only exists in draft, however, pending
adoption by Parliament. The provision requiring a dissolved
Parliament to perform urgent tasks did not exist under the old
Constitution, and there is no precedent for defining these
exigencies. The draft law, however, defines urgent tasks to
include: resolving mandate and immunity issues of MPs, fulfillment
of international cooperation, resolving administrative issues
related to MPs and other elected and appointed officials. The draft
law stipulates that the Speaker, Parliament General Secretary, and
other working bodies would continue to perform other (unspecified)
work of the Parliament. A parliamentary working group submitted the
draft law, at the request of the Speaker of Parliament. It is not
an authoritative or necessarily a final draft.


Calling for Early Elections: A Likely Scenario
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8. (SBU) Hiber speculated that PM Kostunica and his government will
convene next week to vote on whether to call new elections. Hiber
said that Kostunica was "trying day and night" behind the scenes to
form a government with the Radicals, but that he has so far been
unsuccessful. He expected that Kostunica would fail in this effort
and, in a meeting next week, his cabinet would vote to recommend to
the President to dissolve Parliament. (Government cannot go more
than a week without convening, he noted, or breach its
Constitutional obligations, Hiber said. We suspect that the PM
would argue that reported "telephone meetings" satisfy this
obligation.)

Comment
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9. (SBU) The government is stalled. The Constitution is untested.
The politicians themselves are puzzled. Our best guess is that this
unsustainable situation will eventually lead to new elections. End
comment.

MUNTER