SERBIA: GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE LIKELY, BUT NO ONE KNOWS HOW

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000143

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EUN SR XG

SUBJECT: SERBIA: GOVERNMENT COLLAPSE LIKELY, BUT NO ONE KNOWS HOW
AND WHEN


Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Serbia's government is likely to fall. Prime Minister
Kostunica has taken a stand against his pro-EU coalition partners.
Through the current roiling within the political community it
appears that Kostunica may attempt to cobble together a new
government with the support of the Radical Party. This government
crisis could lead to parliamentary elections. End summary.


2. (SBU) Belgrade is abuzz with rumors of the Government of
Serbia's imminent collapse. So far, the coalition of President
Tadic's Democratic Party (DS),Kostunica's Democratic Party of
Serbia (DSS),and G-17 Plus still stands, but the rift between DS
and the DSS is widening. Today's crisis erupted when news of the
EU's plan for a mission to Kosovo collided with Serbia's plans to
sign an interim cooperation agreement with the EU.


3. (SBU) Foreign Minister Jeremic (DS) reportedly will convene a
session of the government Foreign Affairs Council to authorize
Deputy Prime Minister Djelic (also DS) to sign the EU Interim
Agreement in Brussels later this week. Djelic issued a statement
saying he sees no obstacle to signing the agreement, since the text
has no references to Kosovo or Kosovo independence. In a brief
television appearance, SRS leader Nikolic said that there would be
no place in Serbian politics for anyone who went to Brussels and
signed the EU Agreement without valid government authorization and
that the agreement would be invalid. Prime Minister Kostunica, for
his part, refuses to call a regular cabinet session at which he
could be outvoted on the issue.


4. (SBU) Whether parliament, currently out of session, will convene
a special session to take up this matter is uncertain. B92
television announced that DSS issued a press release asserting that
they have sufficient support for their initiative from DSS, SRS and
allied MPs to call the extraordinary session of parliamentary and
will likely do so tomorrow morning, February 6. During the session,
they would raise the EU mission to Kosovo, the signing of an EU
Interim Agreement with EU, and the rumored likelihood of a Kosovo
declaration of independence on the horizon, B92 reported.
Parliament Speaker Oliver Dulic (DS),however, subsequently
announced that he would invite the party caucus leaders to meet on
Monday, saying that the important thing is to inaugurate President
Tadic for his second term (which he expects will take place February
15). The Speaker's adviser told poloff at the end of the day that
Dulic would not convene the session this week because he expects the
government to fall. His advisor said that Dulic jokingly suggested
that by the following week Nikolic might be Serbia's Speaker.


5. (SBU) Rumors and suggestions are flying about what type of
government might replace the current coalition. Socialist Party
Ivica Dacic, appearing on television, this afternoon, suggested a
transitional National Unity Government which would be in effect
until the parliamentary elections. Contacts told us one rumor that
Kostunica approached the SRS to form a caretaker government, with
SRS General Secretary Vucic as speaker, but that the SRS rejected
the idea. It may be that the current situation, in which the
government cabinet doesn't meet and the PM tries to bypass it
directly to parliament, could go on for some days -- Defense
Minister Sutanovac (DS) told Ambassador he gave it a "60-40" chance
that the government would fall as a result of this "stalemate."
What then? Sutanovac couldn't say.

Comment


6. (SBU) Discussion of EU integration in the context of
announcement of the EU's decision to send a mission to Kosovo
triggered today's series of government-threatening events. It is
possible that Kostunica's short-term objective may have been to give
the Europeans pause -- literally --- and try to delay a declaration
of Kosovo independence, but it is certain that this is not just
about Kosovo. Tadic's February 3 election victory, without the
support of coalition partner Prime Minister Kostunica, exposed the
fragility of the government and put in motion a dynamic where
something like this would happen, sooner or later. For now, no one
is jumping to take over, perhaps reluctant to be at the helm when
Kosovo declares independence.


7. (SBU) Should the government fall, Speaker Dulic said he expected
new parliamentary elections. Western relief at Sunday's reelection
of President Tadic would likely be short-lived, and the complexities
of post-Kosovo parliamentary politics in Serbia could lead to
Radical gains. That, in turn, could produce a government less
committed to the European future Tadic espouses. End comment.

MUNTER