SERBIA: GOVERNMENT TEETERS AT PROSPECT OF EU ROLE IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000142

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EUN SR XG

SUBJECT: SERBIA: GOVERNMENT TEETERS AT PROSPECT OF EU ROLE IN
KOSOVO


Summary
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1. (SBU) The EU invitation to Serbia to sign an interim political
agreement with EU member states has brought to the forefront the
division between newly re-elected President Tadic and his coalition
partner Prime Minister Kostunica over Europe, and threatens to bring
down the government. The process of authorizing a government
representative to sign this agreement in Brussels on February 7 has
forced an immediate confrontation between Tadic and Kostunica.
Kostunica is characterizing the EU decision to send a mission to
Kosovo and the prospect of an imminent declaration of Kosovo
independence as threats to Serbia's territorial integrity and
constitutional order. While the foreign affairs apparatus tries to
move the Interim Agreement process forward to authorize Deputy PM
Djelic to sign the agreement, the PM has called on Parliament to
take up both the agreement and the prospect of an EU mission to
Kosovo. The final step in authorizing Djelic requires the Cabinet
to convene. The Cabinet votes should easily line up on the side of
the President, but the session will certainly end without PM
endorsement and quite possibly with dissolution of the Government.
End summary.

EU Cooperation vs EU Meddling
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2. (U) The signing of a political agreement on cooperation between
Serbia and the European Union member states is set for February 7 in
Brussels. The Serbian Government received a copy of the agreement
on February 4 and has set in motion the process of authorizing
Deputy Minister Djelic to sign. The two-part process involves a
technical consideration and approval by a government council and a
final authorization of the prime minister's cabinet. The first
review is set to take place on February 5, and MFA Political
Director Borislav Stefanovic told poloff that the votes in this body
line up easily in favor of signing. The cabinet review, Stefanovic
said, would likewise be a simple matter, since Democratic Party and
G-17 Plus members outnumber detractors (Kostunica's Democratic Party
of Serbia and the New Serbia Party). At least two factors
complicate the authorization process, however. First, the cabinet
generally meets on Thursdays, and the PM would need to call a
special session in order to empower Djelic in time to travel to
Brussels; and, second, that Kostunica is unlikely to accept the
cabinet's approval of the authorization.


3. (SBU) PM Foreign Affairs Advisor Miroslav Cestovic told poloff
that "we are looking at a distinct and clear possibility" of
government collapse on or before February 7. Cestovic said that
Kostunica will not let the matter of agreement signing, which is
being billed as a step toward European integration, be considered
outside the "broader political picture" which included the February
4 EU adoption of a Joint Action to deploy a mission to Kosovo.
Kostunica opposes the deployment as a violation of the UN Charter
and the Serbian Constitution. Were this agreement to stand on its
own, Cestovic said, it would be assessed differently. Cestovic said
that he was very pessimistic that the Government would survive the
week; Stefanovic put the probablility at greater than not that the
Government would fall.


4. (U) All Belgrade media reported on the EU decision and on
reactions of the Serbian Government, and members of the Prime
Ministers Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS),particularly.
Pro-government daily Politika carried the front page headline: "EU
sends mission to Kosovo, stormy reaction from Belgrade." According
to Politika, DSS Education Minister Loncar said that the EU's
decision to send simultaneously the Interim Agreement and the
document of the EU mission to Kosovo, just one day after
presidential elections, was an act of "naked blackmail." DSS
spokesperson Andrija Mladenovic called the EU decision a direct
threat on territorial integrity and sovereignty of Serbia. Daily
Vecernje Novosti ran an article, entitled "the EU mission divides
the government," describing the substance of the EU Joint Action
document and reported sharp reaction of the DSS ministers. The
front page headline of tabloid Kurir ran: "The EU 'congratulates'
Tadic by sending a mission to Kosovo," saying that the EU act was a"
finger in the government's eye." Daily Blic reported that the EU
was accelerating actions related to Kosovo, and characterized the
EU's decision as thefirst post-presidential elections test for the
Serbian Government.

Prime Minister: EU Actions Constitute Threat to Serbia
-------------- --------------


5. (SBU) Kostunica issued a release on February 5 declaring that
the EU decision to send an illegal mission to Kosovo represented a
reliable predictor of an impending declaration of Kosovo
independence. The EU decision directly jeopardizes the sovereignty,
territorial integrity, and constitutional orderer of Serbia, he
said, and the decision on illegal deployment of an EU mission meant
that the EU, together with Albanian separatists, was moving toward

BELGRADE 00000142 002 OF 002


Kosovo independence. The EU proposal to sign a political agreement,
therefore was a trick. Serbia's signing would, in effect, be an
endorsement of the deployment to Kosovo and of Kosovo's
independence, making Serbia the first to recognize the state of
Kosovo.

Begin Unofficial Embassy Translation of PM Release:

Public statement by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica

EU's decision to send its mission to Kosovo and Metohia by violating
the international law in order to implement Ahtisaari's rejected
plan on independent Kosovo, represents a certain announcement that
Albanian separatists would proclaim Province's unilateral
independence. By this decision, EU has directly endangered
sovereignty, territorial integrity and the Constitution of Serbia.
Decision to send the mission means that EU and the Albanian
separatists are creating a false Albanian state on the Serbian
territory by violating all international regulations and rules.

EU's proposal to sign a political Agreement with Serbia and at the
same time send its mission to rip our country to pieces, is a
delusion in which Serbia's signature on the Agreement with EU is
actually a signature on Kosovo's independence. In this way, Serbia
is to become the first country that indirectly recognized
independent Kosovo.

Out of these reasons, our National Parliament should have its
session immediately, before the proclamation of the unilateral
independence of Kosovo. On this session, some necessary decisions
should be adopted in accordance with the Constitution and existing
resolutions, decisions concerning the EU's mission and the offered
Political Agreement.

Belgrade, February 5, 2008

End Text.


6. (U) Cestovic and Stefanovic assumed that dissolution of the
Government would ultimately lead to early parliamentary elections.
The process of dissolving the government, establishing a caretaker
government, and calling for elections is not yet entirely clear, and
post will provide details septel as events unfold.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) The Serbian Government is teetering. There is a chance
that Kostunica's demand for parliamentary consideration will provide
the political cover he needs to agree to the signing of the EU
agreement. More likely, however, parliamentary debate will be hot
and fuel the fire under Kostunica. Boris Tadic's victory in
Sunday's election may steel him and his pro-European DS/G-17
colleagues to challenge the Prime Minister. It's a game of chicken
and the result could be government collapse.


8. (SBU) If the government fails, we will see an even more volatile
political environment in Belgrade. This prospect should not deter
the international community from continuing to move ahead resolutely
on Kosovo. End Comment.

MUNTER