Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08BELGRADE1243
2008-12-03 15:47:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Belgrade
Cable title:
SERBIA: ATTACKS ON G-17 PLUS CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN
how-toVZCZCXYZ0004 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHBW #1243/01 3381547 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 031547Z DEC 08 FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0702 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RHEHNS/NSC WASHDC RUZEJAA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
UNCLAS BELGRADE 001243
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: ATTACKS ON G-17 PLUS CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN
GOVERNING COALITION
REF: BELGRADE 1222
Summary
-------
UNCLAS BELGRADE 001243
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: ATTACKS ON G-17 PLUS CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN
GOVERNING COALITION
REF: BELGRADE 1222
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) A rising crescendo of public criticism of G-17 Plus leader
Mladjan Dinkic and high-profile party appointees such as the
director of Belgrade "Nikola Tesla" airport has prompted speculation
that some within President Tadic's Democratic Party are seeking to
oust G-17 Plus from the government. Dinkic and his senior party
leaders maintain that the attacks are being organized by those
interested in concluding the NIS energy deal with Russia as soon as
possible, and that there is no threat to G-17 Plus' position within
the governing coalition. End Summary.
Airport Manager Resigns
--------------
2. (U) In late November a drumbeat of criticism of Belgrade Airport
General Manager Bojan Kristo, a G-17 Plus appointee, culminated in
parliamentary debate on November 25. The opposition Serbian Radical
Party (SRS),New Serbia (NS),Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS),and
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) called on the government to dismiss
Kristo for paying himself a monthly salary of $4,680 and a $14,950
bonus in June. They also criticized Kristo for paying bonuses of
$5,850 to seven other top officials of the publicly-owned airport.
Kristo resigned on November 26.
3. (SBU) Given the relatively small sums of money involved in a
country where large-scale corruption scandals are common, many
observers saw the campaign to oust Kristo as a proxy war against
governing coalition member G-17 Plus and its outspoken leader,
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Mladjan Dinkic.
Aviation professionals, on the other hand, agree that Kristo had no
qualifications whatsoever to be director of the airport and that had
had been responsible for the airport's lack of development. They
blamed the political "key" process for inflicting political
appointees into professional positions in exchange for support for
the coalition. G-17's announced plans to refill the position based
on merit were welcomed by the professionals.
Media Attacks on Dinkic
--------------
4. (U) Dinkic appeared on the popular B-92 program "Utisak Nedelje"
(Impression of the Week) on November 30 to discuss the Kristo issue.
He also raised the numerous articles attacking him that "Kurir" and
other right-wing tabloids have published over the past several
months, displaying about twenty newspapers with incendiary
headlines. Dinkic named the controversial owner of the "Kurir" and
"Glas" tabloids, Radisav Raja Rodic, and "mafia-journalist" Gradisa
Katic as executing the campaign. (Katic, the former editor-in-chief
of the weekly tabloid "Identitet," was arrested in 2003 in Operation
Saber, the organized crime roundup conducted after the assassination
of former PM Zoran Djindjic. Katic was accused of working for the
Zemun Gang, which organized the murder in cooperation with rogue
elements of the special operations police unit.)
5. (U) The program's host commented that the tone of the attacks
against Dinkic was as vicious as the campaign against Djindjic just
before his assassination. Dinkic alleged that unreformed parts of
Serbian Intelligence Agency (BIA),Russian interests, some tycoons,
and "persons with warrants against them" were behind the attacks,
due to his efforts to drive a better bargain with Russia on the NIS
energy deal (reftel). He said that a recent meeting with President
Tadic had resolved his initial fears that an effort was underway to
oust G-17 Plus from the governing coalition.
6. (U) Dinkic's lawyer Zeljko Ristic told "Politika" on December 2
that Dinkic had met with State Prosecutor Slobodan Radovanovic on
November 24 in order to discuss the attack articles, including some
which accused him of committing criminal acts. According to Ristic,
Dinkic asked Radovanovic to examine the veracity and soundness of
the articles.
Party Line: It's all about the Energy Agreement
-------------- --
7. (SBU) Foreshadowing Dinkic's public comments, G-17 Plus
Executive Board president Tomislav Damnjanovic told us on November
26 that the campaign against Kristo was politically motivated and
linked to the NIS energy deal with Russia, noting that G-17 Plus was
still against the specifics of the agreement. Damnjanovic said that
although the SRS, NS, and DSS had led the charge against Kristo in
Parliament, other parties were also involved in the attacks. "Look
at what parties within the coalition want the gas deal" to be
concluded, he said (read: DS and SPS). Damnjanovic asserted that
the governing coalition remained stable despite the current
tensions.
8. (SBU) In a December 1 meeting, G-17 Plus party whip Suzana
Grubjesic also linked the Kristo affair and the media campaign
against Dinkic to the NIS energy deal. She described both as part
of a broader campaign directed by presidential media advisor Nebojsa
Krstic to undermine Dinkic and sideline him from the negotiations
with Russia, commenting that she "did not buy" Dinkic's insinuation
on "Utisak Nedelje" that high levels of DS were not involved.
9. (SBU) When asked whether the campaign against Dinkic represented
an effort to oust G-17 Plus from the government, Grubjesic said that
it was impossible to know who all was involved or what their goals
were. She told us that she had long wanted G-17 Plus to provide
minority support rather than participate in a government with the
SPS and controversial Jagodina Mayor Palma's United Serbia (JS),but
"for now" she was still in the minority within her own party; she
thought that as time went by and the dynamics of government
prevented her party from fulfilling its campaign promises (most
notably infrastructure funding),the mood within G-17 Plus might
shift.
Alternate Version: Tadic Wants G-17 Plus Out
--------------
10. (SBU) Despite G-17 Plus' denials, there is much speculation
among the Belgrade chattering classes that the Kristo affair is the
opening salvo in an effort to remove Dinkic's party from the
governing coalition, to be replaced either by Cedomir Jovanovic's
LDP or Tomislav Nikolic's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
(Comment: This choice arguably constitutes one of this century's
oddest Serbian political quandaries, with LDP representing the
extreme left and SNS the extreme right of the political spectrum.
End Comment.) LDP MP Ivan Andric told us that during a mid-November
meeting with "Otpor" founders in which he participated, President
Tadic complained about how difficult it was to deal with G-17 Plus
and the Pensioners' Party, and floated the idea of early elections
to consolidate the Democratic Party's rising popularity.
11. (SBU) Former G-17 Plus vice president Cedomir Antic echoed this
interpretation of events to us on December 2, claiming that Nikolic
had been referring to G-17 Plus in recent comments to the press when
he said that the SNS was ready "to help the DS if it gets rid of the
mobsters" in the government. Antic estimated that there is a 10-30%
chance of new elections in the spring; he believed the limiting
factor would be the difficulty in explaining to the IMF why new
elections were necessary during an economic crisis. Before the
Kristo affair became public, G-17 Plus deputy whip Vlajko Senic also
intimated privately to us that there were "negative dynamics" in the
relationship with DS.
Comment
--------------
12. (SBU) Given the penchant for political intrigue within DS
leadership it would not be a surprise to learn that Tadic was toying
with the idea of a coalition reshuffle or early elections. This
option clearly would be a disaster for Serbia and would signal the
extent to which the President is out of touch with his electorate.
Needless political maneuvering continues to monopolize Serbia's
politicians' attention and energy, while the government itself is
almost completely stalled. The mountain of legislation necessary to
move Serbia into the EU has not moved noticeably. Through three
elections in 2008 Serbs voted for a European future; their
politicians would do well to listen to their people rather than
indulging in senseless backroom politics. End Comment.
BRUSH
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: ATTACKS ON G-17 PLUS CREATE UNCERTAINTY IN
GOVERNING COALITION
REF: BELGRADE 1222
Summary
--------------
1. (SBU) A rising crescendo of public criticism of G-17 Plus leader
Mladjan Dinkic and high-profile party appointees such as the
director of Belgrade "Nikola Tesla" airport has prompted speculation
that some within President Tadic's Democratic Party are seeking to
oust G-17 Plus from the government. Dinkic and his senior party
leaders maintain that the attacks are being organized by those
interested in concluding the NIS energy deal with Russia as soon as
possible, and that there is no threat to G-17 Plus' position within
the governing coalition. End Summary.
Airport Manager Resigns
--------------
2. (U) In late November a drumbeat of criticism of Belgrade Airport
General Manager Bojan Kristo, a G-17 Plus appointee, culminated in
parliamentary debate on November 25. The opposition Serbian Radical
Party (SRS),New Serbia (NS),Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS),and
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) called on the government to dismiss
Kristo for paying himself a monthly salary of $4,680 and a $14,950
bonus in June. They also criticized Kristo for paying bonuses of
$5,850 to seven other top officials of the publicly-owned airport.
Kristo resigned on November 26.
3. (SBU) Given the relatively small sums of money involved in a
country where large-scale corruption scandals are common, many
observers saw the campaign to oust Kristo as a proxy war against
governing coalition member G-17 Plus and its outspoken leader,
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Mladjan Dinkic.
Aviation professionals, on the other hand, agree that Kristo had no
qualifications whatsoever to be director of the airport and that had
had been responsible for the airport's lack of development. They
blamed the political "key" process for inflicting political
appointees into professional positions in exchange for support for
the coalition. G-17's announced plans to refill the position based
on merit were welcomed by the professionals.
Media Attacks on Dinkic
--------------
4. (U) Dinkic appeared on the popular B-92 program "Utisak Nedelje"
(Impression of the Week) on November 30 to discuss the Kristo issue.
He also raised the numerous articles attacking him that "Kurir" and
other right-wing tabloids have published over the past several
months, displaying about twenty newspapers with incendiary
headlines. Dinkic named the controversial owner of the "Kurir" and
"Glas" tabloids, Radisav Raja Rodic, and "mafia-journalist" Gradisa
Katic as executing the campaign. (Katic, the former editor-in-chief
of the weekly tabloid "Identitet," was arrested in 2003 in Operation
Saber, the organized crime roundup conducted after the assassination
of former PM Zoran Djindjic. Katic was accused of working for the
Zemun Gang, which organized the murder in cooperation with rogue
elements of the special operations police unit.)
5. (U) The program's host commented that the tone of the attacks
against Dinkic was as vicious as the campaign against Djindjic just
before his assassination. Dinkic alleged that unreformed parts of
Serbian Intelligence Agency (BIA),Russian interests, some tycoons,
and "persons with warrants against them" were behind the attacks,
due to his efforts to drive a better bargain with Russia on the NIS
energy deal (reftel). He said that a recent meeting with President
Tadic had resolved his initial fears that an effort was underway to
oust G-17 Plus from the governing coalition.
6. (U) Dinkic's lawyer Zeljko Ristic told "Politika" on December 2
that Dinkic had met with State Prosecutor Slobodan Radovanovic on
November 24 in order to discuss the attack articles, including some
which accused him of committing criminal acts. According to Ristic,
Dinkic asked Radovanovic to examine the veracity and soundness of
the articles.
Party Line: It's all about the Energy Agreement
-------------- --
7. (SBU) Foreshadowing Dinkic's public comments, G-17 Plus
Executive Board president Tomislav Damnjanovic told us on November
26 that the campaign against Kristo was politically motivated and
linked to the NIS energy deal with Russia, noting that G-17 Plus was
still against the specifics of the agreement. Damnjanovic said that
although the SRS, NS, and DSS had led the charge against Kristo in
Parliament, other parties were also involved in the attacks. "Look
at what parties within the coalition want the gas deal" to be
concluded, he said (read: DS and SPS). Damnjanovic asserted that
the governing coalition remained stable despite the current
tensions.
8. (SBU) In a December 1 meeting, G-17 Plus party whip Suzana
Grubjesic also linked the Kristo affair and the media campaign
against Dinkic to the NIS energy deal. She described both as part
of a broader campaign directed by presidential media advisor Nebojsa
Krstic to undermine Dinkic and sideline him from the negotiations
with Russia, commenting that she "did not buy" Dinkic's insinuation
on "Utisak Nedelje" that high levels of DS were not involved.
9. (SBU) When asked whether the campaign against Dinkic represented
an effort to oust G-17 Plus from the government, Grubjesic said that
it was impossible to know who all was involved or what their goals
were. She told us that she had long wanted G-17 Plus to provide
minority support rather than participate in a government with the
SPS and controversial Jagodina Mayor Palma's United Serbia (JS),but
"for now" she was still in the minority within her own party; she
thought that as time went by and the dynamics of government
prevented her party from fulfilling its campaign promises (most
notably infrastructure funding),the mood within G-17 Plus might
shift.
Alternate Version: Tadic Wants G-17 Plus Out
--------------
10. (SBU) Despite G-17 Plus' denials, there is much speculation
among the Belgrade chattering classes that the Kristo affair is the
opening salvo in an effort to remove Dinkic's party from the
governing coalition, to be replaced either by Cedomir Jovanovic's
LDP or Tomislav Nikolic's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS).
(Comment: This choice arguably constitutes one of this century's
oddest Serbian political quandaries, with LDP representing the
extreme left and SNS the extreme right of the political spectrum.
End Comment.) LDP MP Ivan Andric told us that during a mid-November
meeting with "Otpor" founders in which he participated, President
Tadic complained about how difficult it was to deal with G-17 Plus
and the Pensioners' Party, and floated the idea of early elections
to consolidate the Democratic Party's rising popularity.
11. (SBU) Former G-17 Plus vice president Cedomir Antic echoed this
interpretation of events to us on December 2, claiming that Nikolic
had been referring to G-17 Plus in recent comments to the press when
he said that the SNS was ready "to help the DS if it gets rid of the
mobsters" in the government. Antic estimated that there is a 10-30%
chance of new elections in the spring; he believed the limiting
factor would be the difficulty in explaining to the IMF why new
elections were necessary during an economic crisis. Before the
Kristo affair became public, G-17 Plus deputy whip Vlajko Senic also
intimated privately to us that there were "negative dynamics" in the
relationship with DS.
Comment
--------------
12. (SBU) Given the penchant for political intrigue within DS
leadership it would not be a surprise to learn that Tadic was toying
with the idea of a coalition reshuffle or early elections. This
option clearly would be a disaster for Serbia and would signal the
extent to which the President is out of touch with his electorate.
Needless political maneuvering continues to monopolize Serbia's
politicians' attention and energy, while the government itself is
almost completely stalled. The mountain of legislation necessary to
move Serbia into the EU has not moved noticeably. Through three
elections in 2008 Serbs voted for a European future; their
politicians would do well to listen to their people rather than
indulging in senseless backroom politics. End Comment.
BRUSH